The closest division race of the 2024 NFL season is in the NFC West. Entering Week 13, all four teams are separated by a few wins, with every squad either one game above, one game below, or exactly at .500.
With several intradivision matchups remaining, it’s likely the West will see wild week-to-week fluctuations the rest of the way. With the assistance of PFN’s Playoff Predictor, let’s examine the scenarios that could see each team take home the division title.
NFC West Playoff Scenarios | Week 14 Update
Sunday 4 p.m. ET Results
- San Fancisco 49ers (6-7) def. Chicago Bears (4-9)
- Seattle Seahawks (8-5) def. Arizona Cardinals (6-7)
- Los Angeles Rams (7-6) def. Buffalo Bills (10-3)
According to PFN’s Playoff Predictor, the Seahawks currently have a 52.2% chance to win the NFC West, while the Rams have a 26.1% chance, the 49ers 7%, and the Cardinals 14.7%. These numbers will update as games are finished throughout the week.
Below you can see the NFC West scenarios heading into Sunday.
Which Teams Are Still Competing for the NFC West Crown?
Seattle Seahawks
Entering Week 14, the Seattle Seahawks have a 32.1% chance to win the NFC West. Here is their remaining schedule:
- Week 14: at Arizona Cardinals
- Week 15: vs. Green Bay Packers
- Week 16: vs. Minnesota Vikings
- Week 17: at Chicago Bears
- Week 18: at Los Angeles Rams
The Seahawks were in last place in the NFC West after entering their Week 10 bye, having lost five out of six games. But back-to-back division wins vaulted the Seahawks up to first place, and a stirring comeback against the New York Jets in Week 13 kept them there for another week.
Seattle will face a quick rematch against Arizona in Week 14, this time on the road. With a win, Seattle will earn the head-to-head tiebreaker over Arizona, massively improving its playoff chances.
The Seahawks are 2-2 in the division, having already split with the 49ers and losing their first matchup at home to the Rams. They’ll visit Los Angeles in the season finale, their only other division game remaining.
Arizona Cardinals
Entering Week 14, the Arizona Cardinals have a 45.0% chance to win the NFC West. Here is their remaining schedule:
- Week 14: vs. Seattle Seahawks
- Week 15: vs. New England Patriots
- Week 16: at Carolina Panthers
- Week 17: at Los Angeles Rams
- Week 18: vs. San Francisco 49ers
The Cardinals held first place and were the prohibitive division favorites by PFN’s playoff model just two weeks ago. However, a loss to the Seahawks was damaging, and now Arizona is back to .500 after blowing a 13-point second-half lead against the Minnesota Vikings.
If Arizona can win the rematch versus the Seahawks in Week 14, that still bodes well for its chances of taking back the division. That loss in Seattle is Arizona’s only division defeat thus far. They smashed the Rams at home and upset the 49ers on the road earlier this season. The division record is the next tiebreaker after the head-to-head record, so the Cardinals would be sitting pretty in that regard if they can hold serve at home against the Seahawks.
The Cards have the fifth-easiest remaining strength of schedule — but don’t equate easy with non-critical. The last two games are against NFC West opponents and could very well serve as win-or-go-home matchups.
Los Angeles Rams
Entering Week 14, the Los Angeles Rams have a 17.4% chance to win the NFC West. Here is their remaining schedule:
- Week 14: vs. Buffalo Bills
- Week 15: at San Francisco 49ers
- Week 16: at New York Jets
- Week 17: vs. Arizona Cardinals
- Week 18: vs. Seattle Seahawks
Los Angeles has been battered throughout the season, and the lack of offensive line continuity has hurt. The Rams have an above-average difficulty in terms of strength of schedule the rest of the way (12th-hardest), as they’ll be considerable underdogs to the Buffalo Bills in Week 14.
Even with a loss this week, all is not lost. The Rams do have a 2-1 division record, bouncing back from a Cardinals loss with tight wins over the 49ers and Seahawks. Three of their last four games are within the division, with only a road game against the disintegrating New York Jets breaking that up.
The Rams do control their own destiny entering Week 14, as they would win the division based on tiebreakers at worst if they win out.
San Francisco 49ers
Entering Week 14, the San Francisco 49ers have a 5.6% chance to win the NFC West. Here is their remaining schedule:
- Week 14: vs. Chicago Bears
- Week 15: vs. Los Angeles Rams
- Week 16: at Miami Dolphins
- Week 17: vs. Detroit Lions
- Week 18: at Arizona Cardinals
The 49ers have endured a star-crossed season, with a steady string of injuries sapping their previously formidable offense. Christian McCaffrey’s likely season-ending torn PCL could be the final straw, as even backup Jordan Mason will be on injured reserve with an ankle injury suffered in Week 13.
The Niners are behind the eight ball due to tiebreakers, which could doom San Francisco in this race. The 49ers have a 1-3 division record, the only team below .500 in the NFC West. They cannot do better than a split with any of their other three NFC West foes.
The Niners have a slightly above-average strength of schedule as well (11th-hardest). They have division games remaining against the Rams and Cardinals, both of whom beat San Francisco in their first matchup.