The closest division race of the 2024 NFL season is in the NFC West. Entering Week 13, all four teams are separated by a single game, with every squad either one game above or below .500.
With several intradivision matchups remaining, it’s likely the West will see wild week-to-week fluctuations the rest of the way. After all, the Seattle Seahawks entered Week 13 in first place but were in last place just two weeks ago.
With the assistance of the PFN’s Playoff Predictor, let’s examine the scenarios that could see each team take home the division title.
NFC West Playoff Scenarios | Week 13 Update
The relevant results to the division title race are below and will be tracked and updated throughout the week.
NFC West Standings
1. Seattle Seahawks (7-5)
2. Arizona Cardinals (6-6)
3. Los Angeles Rams (6-6)
4. San Francisco 49ers (5-7)
How Can the Seattle Seahawks Win the NFC West?
The Seahawks were in last place in the NFC West after entering their Week 10 bye, having lost five out of six games. But back-to-back division wins vaulted the Seahawks up to first place, and a stirring comeback against the New York Jets will keep them there for another week.
Seattle will face a quick rematch against the Cardinals in Week 14, this time on the road. Win that and Seattle will earn the head-to-head tiebreaker over Arizona, massively improving its playoff chances.
The Seahawks are 2-2 in the division, having already split with the 49ers and losing their first matchup at home to the Rams. They’ll visit Los Angeles in the season finale, their only other division game remaining.
After Week 13, the Seahawks have a 32.1% chance to win the division.
Seahawks’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 14: at Arizona Cardinals
- Week 15: vs. Green Bay Packers
- Week 16: vs. Minnesota Vikings
- Week 17: at Chicago Bears
- Week 18: at Los Angeles Rams
How Can the Arizona Cardinals Win the NFC West?
The Cardinals held first place and were the prohibitive division favorites by PFN’s playoff model just two weeks ago. But a loss to the Seahawks was damaging, and now Arizona is back to .500 after blowing a 13-point second-half lead against the Minnesota Vikings.
If Arizona can win the rematch vs. the Seahawks in Week 14, that still bodes well for its chances of taking back the division. That loss in Seattle is Arizona’s only division defeat thus far. They smashed the Rams at home and upset the 49ers on the road earlier this season.
The Cards have the eighth-easiest remaining strength of schedule — but don’t equate easy with non-critical. The last two games are against NFC West opponents and could very well serve as win-or-go-home matchups.
After Week 13, the Cardinals have a 45% chance to win the division.
Cardinals’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 14: vs. Seattle Seahawks
- Week 15: vs. New England Patriots
- Week 16: at Carolina Panthers
- Week 17: at Los Angeles Rams
- Week 18: vs. San Francisco 49ers
How Can the Los Angeles Rams Win the NFC West?
The Rams have had a roller-coaster season, balancing out a 1-4 start with a three-game win streak. Week 13 brought an extremely important win against the New Orleans Saints ahead of a difficult closing stretch.
Los Angeles has been battered throughout the season, and the lack of offensive line continuity has hurt. The Rams have an above-average difficulty in terms of strength of schedule the rest of the way, as they’ll be considerable underdogs to the Buffalo Bills in Week 14.
The Rams do have a 2-1 division record, bouncing back from a Cardinals loss with tight wins over the 49ers and Seahawks. In particular, it might be necessary for Los Angeles to win the Week 18 rematch against Seattle to own the head-to-head tiebreaker.
After the Week 13, the Rams have a 17.4% chance to win the division.
Rams’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 14: vs. Buffalo Bills
- Week 15: at San Francisco 49ers
- Week 16: at New York Jets
- Week 17: vs. Arizona Cardinals
- Week 18: vs. Seattle Seahawks
How Can the San Francisco 49ers Win the NFC West?
The 49ers have endured a star-crossed season, with a steady string of injuries sapping their previously formidable offense. Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel Sr., George Kittle, and Trent Williams have all missed time, while Brandon Aiyuk has been out for the season since a torn ACL back in Week 7.
The Niners are behind the eight ball with the sixth-toughest remaining strength of schedule. They also have division games remaining against the Rams and Cardinals, both of whom beat San Francisco in their first matchup.
Those tiebreakers could doom San Francisco in this race. The 49ers have a 1-3 division record, the only team below .500 in the NFC West. They cannot do better than a split with any of their other three NFC West foes.
After San Francisco’s loss to the Bills in Week 13, the 49ers have a 5.6% chance to win the division.
49ers’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 14: vs. Chicago Bears
- Week 15: vs. Los Angeles Rams
- Week 16: at Miami Dolphins
- Week 17: vs. Detroit Lions
- Week 18: at Arizona Cardinals