Many expected the NFC South to be one of the more underwhelming divisions this season, and those predictions have proven correct.
The 6-5 Atlanta Falcons currently sit atop the standings, followed by the 5-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the 4-7 New Orleans Saints, and the 3-8 Carolina Panthers.
The Falcons suffered an embarrassing 38-6 loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 11 and only have one win of greater than six points, so is this division still up in the air? Let’s look at where things stand in the NFC South.
Atlanta Falcons’ Playoff Chances Through Week 12
The Falcons lost two of their first three games before winning five of their next six contests. They were 6-3 after Week 9 and primed to run away with the NFC South.
However, Atlanta lost its last two games and must reset during its bye week. After Week 12, the Falcons have a 45.2% chance to make the playoffs and a 41.8% chance to win the NFC South, according to the Pro Football Network Playoff Predictor.
Here are Atlanta’s chances of landing each NFC playoff seed:
- No. 1 seed: <0.1%
- No. 2 seed: 0.5%
- No. 3 seed: 8.3%
- No. 4 seed: 33.0%
- No. 5 seed: <0.1%
- No. 6 seed: 0.4%
- No. 7 seed: 2.9%
The Falcons probably can kiss the top two seeds goodbye. However, with the 27th-ranked remaining strength of schedule, Atlanta could go on a run and land the third or fourth seed.
It’s worth noting that the PFN’s simulator currently gives the Bucs better odds of making the playoffs and winning the NFC South, due in part to Tampa Bay’s remaining schedule. It’s worth noting that the Falcons have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Buccaneers.
As for the Super Bowl, the Falcons currently have a 0.4% chance to win the Lombardi Trophy.
Falcons’ Remaining 2024 Schedule
- Week 13: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- Week 14: at Minnesota Vikings
- Week 15: at Las Vegas Raiders
- Week 16: vs. New York Giants
- Week 17: at Washington Commanders
- Week 18: vs. Carolina Panthers
The matchups with Los Angeles, Minnesota, and Washington will be difficult. But the Falcons should take care of business against Las Vegas, New York, and Carolina.
If the Falcons split their remaining six games, they would finish 9-8. Barring a run from Tampa Bay, that could be enough to win the division.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Playoff Chances Through Week 12
Since they don’t own the head-to-head tiebreaker, the Bucs must finish with a better record than Atlanta. Tampa Bay snapped its four-game losing streak with a dominant win over the New York Giants in Week 12, taking the first step towards erasing that deficit.
After their Week 12 win, the Bucs have a 56.0% chance of making the playoffs and a 50.7% chance of winning the division. Obviously, those numbers have come down since Tampa won four of its first six games, but they are the highest of any team in the division.
Here are the Bucs’ chances of landing each NFC playoff seed:
- No. 1 seed: <0.1%
- No. 2 seed: 0.6%
- No. 3 seed: 10.9%
- No. 4 seed: 39.2%
- No. 5 seed: 0.1%
- No. 6 seed: 0.9%
- No. 7 seed: 4.2%
As you can see, the Bucs’ chances of making the playoffs are tied almost entirely to winning the NFC South. Without a division title, they probably won’t make the playoffs. But as previously discussed, PFN’s Playoff Predictor believes Tampa Bay can beat out Atlanta.
As of this writing, Tampa Bay has a 1.1% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
Buccaneers’ Remaining 2024 Schedule
- Week 13: at Carolina Panthers
- Week 14: vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- Week 15: at Los Angeles Chargers
- Week 16: at Dallas Cowboys
- Week 17: vs. Carolina Panthers
- Week 18: vs. New Orleans Saints
Yeah, that’s a cupcake schedule. In fact, the Bucs’ remaining strength of schedule currently is ranked 32nd, hence their surprisingly decent playoff chances.
Still, Tampa probably would need to win at least five of its remaining games — along with Atlanta cratering down the stretch — to win the division. It’s a difficult path, but it’s not impossible.