Entering the 2024 NFL season, many expected the NFC South to be one of the tighter division races. That expectation has come to fruition, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons see-sawing control of the division throughout the season.
In Week 17, the Buccaneers defeated the Carolina Panthers in Week 17, and the Falcons beat the Washington Commanders, so let’s break down what Tampa Bay and Atlanta each need to claim the division.
What Is the Current NFC South Playoff Picture?
These are the standings for the NFC South at the start of Sunday in Week 17:
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)
- Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
- New Orleans Saints (5-10)
- Carolina Panthers (4-12)
With the Bucs’ blowout win over the Panthers on Sunday afternoon, Tampa Bay re-took first place in the division in Week 17. Atlanta had a chance to retake the lead with a win over the Commanders on Sunday Night Football, but they lost in overtime.
That means the Bucs now control their own destiny and would win the division with a Week 18 victory over the New Orleans Saints. If the Bucs lose in Week 18 and the Falcons defeat the Panthers, Atlanta would win the division since they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Tampa Bay after winning both matchups this season.
How Can the Falcons Win the NFC South?
Week 17 did not go the Falcons’ way. Not only did the Buccaneers defeat the Panthers, but the Falcons also lost a crucial matchup against the Commanders on prime-time. Now, Atlanta can only get into the postseason with some help from the Bucs.
It’s worth noting that Atlanta cannot make the playoffs as a Wild Card team. If they cannot win the division next week, they will miss the playoffs.
How Can the Buccaneers Win the NFC South?
Tampa Bay defeated the Panthers in Week 17, meaning they can clinch the division with a win over the Saints in Week 18.
The Buccaneers must finish with a better outright record than the Falcons over the final two weeks. Thus, Tampa Bay’s clearest path to the division is winning their final game against the Saints in Week 18. If the Bucs lose in Week 18 and the Falcons win, Atlanta will clinch the division title.
Like Atlanta, the Buccaneers cannot earn an NFC Wild Card spot.
To simulate all the different scenarios, head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to see how they change the playoff picture and the NFL postseason bracket.