Entering the 2024 NFL season, many expected the NFC South to be one of the more underwhelming divisions in the league. Sure enough, entering Week 17, every team in the division has at least seven losses.
With the Atlanta Falcons defeating the New York Giants in Week 16 and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers losing to the Dallas Cowboys, let’s break down the various playoff scenarios for the Buccaneers and Falcons.
What Is the Current NFC South Playoff Picture?
With the Bucs’ Sunday Night Football loss to the Cowboys, the Falcons are currently in first place in the NFC South. If they win out, the division title belongs to Atlanta.
The Falcons are 8-7, with remaining games against the Washington Commanders (road) and Carolina Panthers.
Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are currently 8-7, and they’ll face the Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints down the stretch.
MORE: Simulate the Rest of the NFL Season With PFN’s Playoff Predictor
The Saints were alive entering Week 16 (just barely), but they were officially eliminated from the NFC South race and the playoffs this week.
Now, this is a two-team race between the Bucs and Falcons.
The Falcons won both regular-season games against the Buccaneers, so they own the head-to-head tiebreaker.
How Can the Falcons Win the NFC South?
The Falcons are now in first place in the NFC South and they own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bucs, so they are in a great spot.
Atlanta must be at least tied with Tampa Bay at the end of the season in terms of its overall record/winning percentage to win the NFC South.
Here’s a look at the Falcons’ scenarios over the final three weeks:
- If the Bucs go 2-1, the Falcons must go 3-0.
- If the Bucs go 1-2, the Falcons must go 2-1.
- If the Bucs go 0-3, the Falcons must go 1-2.
- If the Bucs go 1-1-1, the Falcons must go 2-0-1.
How Can the Buccaneers Win the NFC South?
To win the NFC South for the fourth straight season, the Buccaneers must finish half a game ahead of the Falcons in the standings.
If there is a tie, the Falcons will take the division crown due to the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Here’s a look at how the Bucs must finish the season depending on the Falcons’ record:
- If the Falcons go 2-0-1, the Bucs must go at least 2-1.
- If the Falcons go 2-1, the Bucs must go at least 1-1-1.
- If the Falcons go 1-1-1, the Bucs must go at least 1-2.
Can the Saints Win the NFC South?
With the Falcons’ Week 16 win over the New York Giants, the Saints have been eliminated from the NFC South race.
Even if New Orleans wins out, the Falcons would have the tiebreaker over the Saints, ending their postseason hopes.
Head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture and the current NFL postseason bracket.
NFC Playoff Race | Week 18
1. Detroit Lions (14-2)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)
3. Los Angeles Rams (10-6)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)
5. Minnesota Vikings (14-2)
6. Washington Commanders (11-5)
7. Green Bay Packers (11-5)
In The Hunt
9. Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
Eliminated From Playoffs
8. Seattle Seahawks (9-7)
10. Dallas Cowboys (7-9)
11. Arizona Cardinals (7-9)
12. San Francisco 49ers (6-10)
13. New Orleans Saints (5-11)
14. Chicago Bears (4-12)
15. Carolina Panthers (4-12)
16. New York Giants (3-13)