Christmas Day Update
Raiders (7-8) defeated Chiefs (9-6)
Eagles (11-4) defeated Giants (5-10)
Ravens (12-3) defeated 49ers (11-4)
Someone has to win the NFC South, right? Being the NFL‘s only division without a winning team entering Week 16 isn’t necessarily something to be proud of, but at least the NFC South keeps things interesting. With three .500 or worse teams still in the mix, a losing club could theoretically capture the division for the second consecutive season.
Let’s examine the NFC South playoff scenarios that could see the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, or Atlanta Falcons crowned as NFC South division champions in 2023.
NFC South Playoff Scenarios | Week 16 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Dec. 21 before Thursday Night Football. The results of this week’s games will be added below through Monday.
After all the games in Week 16, the Buccaneers (8-7) are a game up on the Falcons and Saints for the division lead.
Thursday Night Football Update
Rams (8-7) defeated Saints (7-8)
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Falcons (7-8) defeated Colts (8-7)
Seahawks (8-7) defeated Titans (5-10)
Packers (7-8) defeated Panthers (2-13)
Lions (11-4) defeated Vikings (7-8)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
Buccaneers (8-7) defeated Jaguars (8-7)
Bears (6-9) defeated Cardinals (3-12)
Christmas Day Update
Eagles (11-4) defeated Giants (5-10)
Ravens (12-3) defeated 49ers (11-4)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the NFC South entering Week 16. Additionally, head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change both the playoff picture and the current NFL playoff bracket.
NFC South Playoff Scenarios Entering Week 16
The Buccaneers and Saints posted victories in Week 15, allowing them to exit Sunday’s action with identical 7-7 records.
Meanwhile, the Falcons were upset by the Carolina Panthers, dropping them to 6-8.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ and New Orleans Saints’ Playoff Chances
While Atlanta has not been eliminated from the NFC South race, its Week 15 defeat undoubtedly shifted them into longshot status.
For now, Tampa Bay is technically leading the division race heading into Week 16. Although the Bucs and Saints have identical records, Tampa Bay defeated New Orleans in Week 4, giving them a head-to-head playoff tiebreaker.
Because the Bucs already have one win over the Saints, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives them better odds to win the division. Tampa Bay has a 58.3% chance of securing its second straight NFC South title, while New Orleans has a one-in-three shot of grabbing its first division crown since 2020.
But fear not, Saints fans — New Orleans still controls its own playoff destiny. Because the Bucs and Saints will face off again in Week 17, both clubs control their own postseason paths. If either team wins out, it will win the NFC South.
Tampa Bay and New Orleans could each have a chance to clinch the division as early as that Week 17 game.
If the Bucs beat the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 16 while the Saints lose to the Los Angeles Rams, and then Tampa Bay defeats New Orleans in Week 17, the Buccaneers will take the division.
But the same holds true for the Saints. If New Orleans wins in each of the next two weeks while Tampa Bay falls in Week 16, the Saints will have clinched the division in Week 17.
And what if Tampa Bay and New Orleans emerge from Week 16 still sharing identical records? The Bucs’ division odds would shoot up to nearly 90%, and they’d have an opportunity to clinch the NFC South title with a win over the Saints in Week 17.
New Orleans won’t be eliminated if Tampa Bay wins on Sunday, but its back will be up against the wall. Assuming the Saints beat the Rams on TNF, they’d also have to defeat the Bucs in Week 16. Then, Dennis Allen’s club would either need to win against the Falcons in Week 18 or hope Tampa Bay is upset by the Carolina Panthers in the regular-season finale.
No matter who wins the South, the second-place team should have a decent chance at a Wild Card berth. While either the Bucs or Saints will lose at least one more game (because they play each other), both clubs received Wild Card help when the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers lost in Week 15.
Atlanta Falcons’ Playoff Chances
The Falcons were in first place heading into Week 15 and could still reside atop the NFC South had they been able to stop Bryce Young and the one-win Panthers from mounting a game-winning, 90-yard drive in the rain on Sunday.
Instead, Atlanta dropped to 6-8, jeopardizing its playoff chances. FPI gave the Falcons roughly a one-in-three chance of winning the NFC South entering last week. After their brutal loss to the Carolina, Atlanta’s odds sit at just 10.3%.
The Falcons can be eliminated from NFC South contention as soon as this week. If the Saints win in Week 16 while Atlanta falls to the Indianapolis Colts, Arthur Smith’s team will be out of the running for the division title. Even if the Falcons win out after losing in Week 16 (including beating the Saints in Week 18), Atlanta could not win the NFC South.
The Falcons likely need to win out to have any chance of the division, and even then, they might need some help from the Saints in Week 17. Atlanta already New Orleans this year and will face them again in Week 18, so the Falcons should be rooting for the Saints to beat the Buccaneers in Week 17.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!