The NFC South does not deserve a playoff berth. And the division damn well doesn’t deserve a home playoff game.
It’s an insult to the Dallas Cowboys or (potentially) Philadelphia Eagles that the NFC East runner up is going to have to open on the road against one of these teams. After the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ bludgeoning at the hands of the San Francisco 49ers Sunday, every team in the NFC South is under .500.
That result has further muddied an already uncertain NFC South playoff picture — and there might not be any real clarity until the final week of the season.
NFC South Playoff Picture
All four teams are within two games of each other. All four have four games left. Two teams control their own destiny. Two need a lot of help.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers (6-7, 3-2, 6-3, 74% to win the NFC South per FiveThirtyEight) are probably going to win the division. And it’s almost certainly going to be a joyless slog.
They’re a really bad team, particularly on offense. Sunday’s 35-7 shellacking at the hands of the San Francisco 49ers was the 12th time in 13 games they’ve been held under 23 points. That happened just three times in all of 2021.
But the Bucs have banked enough wins already that the loss was essentially meaningless. Their only path to the postseason is winning the division.
And it’s probably going to happen. The Bucs are at least a game up on the field and have a relatively soft closing stretch.
Tampa’s remaining games are against the Bengals, Cardinals, Panthers, and Falcons — teams that are a combined five games under .500. The Bucs have such a structural advantage over their rivals that they could conceivably clinch before those two divisional showdowns to end the season.
But winning the division would be a pyrrhic victory. The odds of a 62-7-style beatdown (that was the final score of Dan Marino’s final game, a playoff loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars) in the Wild Card Round is quite high.
Brady doesn’t need to go through that. And we don’t need to see it.
Carolina Panthers
Panthers interim Steve Wilks deserves real consideration to keep the job on a permanent basis. Carolina completely outplayed a solid Seahawks team in Seattle on Sunday. The win was the Panthers’ fourth in eight games since the Panthers fired Matt Rhule.
The result improved the Panthers to 5-8, including 4-1 in the division and 4-5 in the conference. But because the Panthers have already beaten the Buccaneers, they’re guaranteed the NFC South crown if they win out. That’s why at 21%, the Panthers have by far the best chance of winning the division among teams not named the Bucs.
The Panthers couldn’t ask for a better closing stretch. Their final four opponents — Pittsburgh, Detroit, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans — are all under .500.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons (5-8, 1-3, 4-5, 4%) had the week off and will return from the bye with a new starting quarterback. Rookie Desmond Ridder takes over for Marcus Mariota — and is getting thrown directly into the fire.
The Falcons almost certainly need to win out because they’re 1-2 against the Bucs and Panthers and have bad divisional and conference records.
But it’s not impossible. They would eliminate the Saints with a win in Week 15. And after games at Baltimore and home against Arizona, Atlanta closes its season against Tampa Bay — in a game that could decide the division.
If that’s the case, there’s a real chance it’ll get flexed into Sunday Night Football. That means another nationally televised game for Brady. Yay.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints cannot afford another loss. At 4-9 — with a 1-3 divisional record and 3-6 in the NFC — they are 1 in 100 to win the division.
Those odds go to 0 in 100 if they lose to the Falcons.
After that, they have games against the Browns, Eagles, and Panthers. It would take a miracle to even have a clinching scenario in Week 18.