The NFC South came down to the wire last season, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers emerging victorious and then going on to win a playoff game. While the Buccaneers will have high hopes of defending their title, the Atlanta Falcons‘ addition of Kirk Cousins and change of head coach have catapulted them to the top of the division odds.
The New Orleans Saints are once again expected to be competitive but are third in the division title odds. Meanwhile, the Carolina Panthers are still projected to be at least another season away from challenging with odds greater than +1000 to win the NFC South.
Let’s examine the current odds and see what wagers our NFL betting experts are putting their money ahead of the 2024 NFL season.
What Are the NFC South Odds To Win the Division?
The odds below are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Aug. 25.
- Atlanta Falcons -130
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +320
- New Orleans Saints +400
- Carolina Panthers +1100
Top Picks in the NFC South
Right after Cousins signed with the Falcons, I bet they would win the division at even money, and it’s not surprising that the odds have shifted more against them.
This is definitely one of the more open divisions in the league. There’s even a world where I could see the Panthers winning it if Bryce Young takes a rather large step forward. But I’m sticking with the Falcons.
Atlanta has the best team on paper. They managed to win seven games with one of the worst head coaches in NFL history, and a guy everyone knew before the season had no business starting at quarterback.
Now, the Falcons have a smart, defensive-minded head coach in Raheem Morris, who will leave his offense to Sean McVay disciple Zac Robinson. Atlanta should be much more potent offensively and is the clear favorite to win it.
The Bucs are the defending champions, but they won last year more because no one else was capable of taking it from them. Meanwhile, the Saints are just who they are. Could they get hot and go on a run? Sure, but they’re most likely an eight or nine-win team.
The Falcons can get to 11 wins, which I’m quite confident will be enough to take the divisional crown.
Pick: Atlanta Falcons -120
– Jason Katz, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst
It’s rare that I lay decent juice on a future bet, so that tells you how strongly I feel about this one.
I’m looking at the rushing leader in this division. I think we can safely rule out any Panthers back. Jonathon Brooks is a talented kid, but he’s coming off of an ACL tear and will be slow out of the gates if he plays at all in September. Even if we knew he’d be active for Week 1, game script is a concern and his role is unknown.
That leaves us with Bijan Robinson, Rachaad White, and Alvin Kamara as the remaining options. The Saints’ offensive line is a mess, and Kamara is far more useful as a pass catcher as his rushing numbers continue to tank.
- 2017: 6.1 YPC (TD every 15 carries)
- 2018: 4.6 YPC (TD every 13.9 carries)
- 2019: 4.7 YPC (TD every 34.2 carries)
- 2020: 5.0 YPC (TD every 11.7 carries)
- 2021: 3.7 YPC (TD every 60 carries)
- 2022: 4.0 YPC (TD every 111.5 carries)
- 2023: 3.9 YPC (TD every 36 carries)
As for White, there’s simply not enough upside for him to keep up with Robinson. Not only does Atlanta’s star figure to hold the edge in opportunity count, he also has home-run-hitting potential.
Of the 35 running backs with 300+ carries since he entered the league, White ranks 33rd in percentage of carries gaining 10+ yards.
- 32) Jamaal Williams: 7.3%
- 33) Rachaad White: 7.2%
- 34) AJ Dillon: 6.3%
- 35) Ezekiel Elliott: 6.0%
To overcome that, he would need to hold a significant edge over Robinson in carry count. We have Robinson projected for 75 more attempts this season.
Pick: Bijan Robinson to lead the division in rushing yards (-145 at DraftKings)
– Kyle Soppe, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst
No one won more than nine games in this division last year. Did anyone get remarkably better?
Sure, the Falcons got Kurt Cousins, but the old guy is coming off a season-ending injury. Atlanta just added Matthew Judon, but that’s not going to make or break the season.
The team that won the NFC South last year is sitting at +320, a good $4 more than the Falcons. I’ll ride with that same team in a division that is totally up for grabs and will likely be won by a nine-win team again.
Pick: Bucs (+320)
– David Bearman, Chief Content Officer
Someone is going to have to explain the Kamara rushing line to me. Assuming he makes the Saints’ roster, 625.5 rushing yards seems too low of a line. Kamara has topped that mark in every season of his career despite missing games in each.
Since his rookie season, Kamara has averaged over 50 rushing yards per game every year. Based on that, he needs to play 13 games in 2024 to ensure he hits this mark.
When I look at the Saints’ depth chart, I don’t see where the competition is coming from. Jamaal Williams didn’t provide a threat last year, and Kendre Miller doesn’t seem to be a major concern.
To get to 625.5 yards at a conservative 3.7 yards per attempt, Kamara needs 170 carries. He hasn’t fallen below that since that rookie season.
Pick: Alvin Kamara to have over 625.5 rushing yards (-110 at DraftKings)
– Ben Rolfe, PFN Deputy Editor of Sports Betting, Fantasy, and Scouting