We are now into the middle third of the 2024 NFL season, which is when things really start to shake out with the playoff picture. We now have a good idea of where teams stand in our NFL Power Rankings and how the tiers of teams are shaping up in terms of floors and ceilings.
However, with the NFL’s variable nature, power ranking all 32 teams can be a tough task. Therefore, here at Pro Football Network, we have tried to remove the judgment element from the process by creating our PFN Power Ranking+ (PFN PR+) metric. This metric combines our internal Offense+ and Defense+ metrics, sprinkles in some special teams, and then applies a level of correction for the strength of schedule a team has played.
Those are the top-level ingredients, but there’s much more depth that goes into creating the PFN PR+ numbers.
Is this system perfect? Absolutely not, and as we continue to research, we will continue tinkering with the elements that make up the PFN PR+. That may be at the Offense+ or Defense+ level, or it may be adding a fifth element that our analysis determines should be included in the overall rankings.
As things stand, this is the recipe that we are comfortable with entering Week 9, and accordingly, we have created our first official set of the PFN PR+ for the 2024 season.
Here’s a look at how the NFC teams rank.
1) Detroit Lions (6-1)
- Offense+ Rank: 4
- Defense+ Rank: 5
- Special Teams Rank: 7
- SOS Rank Through Week 8: 25
The Detroit Lions have separated themselves from the pack slightly over the past few weeks. They’ve dominated when they should, and they do just enough to beat teams that are at a similar level to them. Beating the Vikings on the road is a real jewel in the crown for Detroit and demonstrates that they can go on the road and beat good teams.
While all their metrics are impressive, they haven’t been thoroughly tested to this point, with the Lions’ schedule ranking eighth-easiest to this point. Detroit is looking out at the third-hardest remaining schedule, so we should get a good idea of its true Super Bowl credentials in the second half of the season.
However, with Jared Goff playing some of the best football of his career and currently ranking as the sixth-best quarterback in the league in 2024, they look well set up. This week in Lambeau will tell us a lot. If Detroit can go outdoors and win convincingly against a good team, we’ll start to see how battle-hardened the Lions are.
2) Minnesota Vikings (5-2)
- Offense+ Rank: 15
- Defense+ Rank: 3
- Special Teams Rank: 9
- SOS Rank Through Week 8: 5
There was always a feeling that this Minnesota Vikings team could come back down to earth a little after their 5-0 start. Losing to the Los Angeles Rams last Thursday doesn’t look good on the surface, but that was a very different Rams team to any we’ve seen this season with both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back close to full health.
The Vikings’ résumé in the first seven weeks is strong, with wins over good teams, a trip to London, and the fifth-hardest schedule overall. They have a few games to put things right, with the Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Tennessee Titans presenting a particularly easy stretch over the coming weeks. That will give the offense time to figure out how it can cope without Christian Darrisaw for the rest of the year.
The Vikings remain in play for the NFC North this season. Sam Darnold is doing just fine, ranking as the QB14, and the Vikings’ schedule is considerably easier than that of the Lions (17th vs. third). When the dust settles, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Vikings as the NFC North winners and the No. 1 seed in the conference.
3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4)
- Offense+ Rank: 3
- Defense+ Rank: 25
- Special Teams Rank: 13
- SOS Rank Through Week 8: 2
It’s been a tough month for the Buccaneers, with three losses in four games and injuries to key pieces on the offense. Despite the losses, the Bucs retain their spot in the top five of our rankings. Additionally, Tampa has faced the second-hardest schedule to date through the first eight weeks.
It may seem bizarre to say with games against the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers looming, but the Buccaneers have the easiest remaining strength of schedule when you look at the full picture. After the bye, Tampa Bay gets one of the easiest run-ins that you could wish for, with a real chance to run the table in those final seven games.
There is every chance that things could look messy this week. The defense is a major concern right now, but the Buccaneers’ one saving grace is that they have been better in the red zone than out of it. If they can hold teams to just three points rather than seven in key spots, they will give this uber-talented offense a chance to win games.
4) Washington Commanders (6-2)
- Offense+ Rank: 2
- Defense+ Rank: 20
- Special Teams Rank: 19
- SOS Rank Through Week 8: 30
This past week was always going to be an interesting test for the Washington Commanders as they faced one of the best defenses in the league. But the injury to Jayden Daniels meant we did not get a true glimpse of what they look like against a top defense.
The biggest positive from the last-second win on Sunday was that the defense continued to show that it is a solid unit when not facing elite offenses.
It’s easy to doubt the Commanders’ credentials when you think that they have played the third-easiest schedule in the NFL, but they have the ninth-easiest remaining schedule, so things don’t get much harder from here.
Washington’s defense is not incredible by any means, but it’s done well restricting opponent scoring, allowing the 10th-most points per game this year.
The Commanders need to make sure they don’t overlook the Giants this week, with the Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles looming on the horizon in Weeks 10 and 11. That matchup with the Eagles is the first of two that could decide the direction of the NFC East.
The numbers behind the play@NextGenStats | #RaiseHail pic.twitter.com/DulpPJYuHX
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) October 30, 2024
5) San Francisco 49ers (4-4)
- Offense+ Rank: 9
- Defense+ Rank: 16
- Special Teams Rank: 30
- SOS Rank Through Week 8: 21
For the majority of the first half against the Dallas Cowboys, it was starting to look like the San Francisco 49ers could be in serious trouble. Then they turned it on in the third quarter and blew the Cowboys away.
The 49ers will be slightly concerned Dallas got back in the game in the fourth quarter after their wobbles against the Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams earlier in the year.
As things stand entering Week 9, the 49ers are still the projected favorites to win the NFC West, according to PFN’s Playoff Predictor, but there are some red flags here.
San Francisco’s schedule to this point hasn’t been overly difficult, but they’re just 4-4. Two of the losses you could have projected in the Vikings and Chiefs, but the Cardinals and Rams losses leave them in a tricky spot.
The 49ers have the seventh-hardest remaining schedule over the rest of the season, which is a concern when the Cardinals and Rams both have schedules that rank in the bottom half the rest of the way. San Francisco largely controls its own destiny still, but it really needs to go 3-0 in its remaining divisional games.
6) Philadelphia Eagles (5-2)
- Offense+ Rank: 13
- Defense+ Rank: 11
- Special Teams Rank: 16
- SOS Rank Through Week 8: 28
Many have underestimated the Eagles this season, but their win over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 8 will have changed that slightly. Going on the road and winning in a dominant fashion against a team many view as an AFC Super Bowl contender will have opened some eyes. They are now on a three-game winning streak and sitting in seventh in the NFC playoff picture.
The underlying numbers are still somewhat unconvincing, and there is definitely an element of the Eagles having played a soft schedule to this point. However, the schedule going forward remains relatively easy, ranking as the third-easiest this season. Philadelphia remains in a great position to make the playoffs, even if things are tightly packed in the NFC right now.
7) Green Bay Packers (6-2)
- Offense+ Rank: 11
- Defense+ Rank: 18
- Special Teams Rank: 25
- SOS Rank Through Week 8: 17
The Packers’ record in 2024 is better than their underlying metrics would suggest it should be. The only notable teams they’ve beaten were the Texans (with the final kick of the game) and the Jekyll and Hyde Cardinals.
Meanwhile, Green Bay lost to the Eagles in Week 1 and then lost convincingly to the Vikings, even if the final scoreline was closer than the game itself appeared.
Nothing about this team is convincing, but nothing is concerning right now. The Packers’ special teams aren’t great, but they are a relatively small part of their overall performance. Green Bay’s offense is also caveated by the fact that Malik Willis led them for 2.5 games this season. They have a solid foundation but have to deliver on that potential.
The first intriguing game will be this week when the Packers host the Lions. Beating the top team in the power rankings will be a huge boost and give the Packers a real win of substance. However, this game also ushers in a brutal stretch of games to end the season that ranks as the toughest schedule in the final 10 weeks.
8) Seattle Seahawks (4-4)
- Offense+ Rank: 14
- Defense+ Rank: 17
- Special Teams Rank: 18
- SOS Rank Through Week 8: 9
The Seattle Seahawks have been a tough team to judge, but they may be exactly what their record and ranking show them to be: league average. The only metric that Seattle really excels at is red-zone offense, ranking in the top five. That has helped the Seahawks be efficient in scoring points, but they still only rank 13th in points per game.
The only win on the Seahawks’ record that looks impressive right now is beating the Broncos in Week 1, but even that came against a rookie QB making his first NFL start. Seattle’s other three wins have come against teams ranked below them, with three losses coming against teams ranked above.
The Seahawks remain very much in the middle of the NFC playoff race, but our simulations have them on the outside when the season ends more often than not.
9) Chicago Bears (4-3)
- Offense+ Rank: 23
- Defense+ Rank: 2
- Special Teams Rank: 10
- SOS Rank Through Week 8: 31
Forget the heartbreaking loss for the Chicago Bears in Week 8 because the underlying element of that game is more important as we look at their potential this season. That game was a microcosm of what we’ve seen this year, with the defense doing a great job restricting the Commanders and the offense struggling to step up to the moment against a league-average defense.
Caleb Williams’ step back in terms of his QB+ was perhaps the most concerning element. He had improved week over week leading into the bye. However, his best games had come against the Rams, Carolina Panthers, and Jacksonville Jaguars, who have had among the worst defenses this year. With the second-hardest remaining schedule, the Bears will need more from their rookie quarterback in the coming weeks.
10) Los Angeles Rams (3-4)
- Offense+ Rank: 12
- Defense+ Rank: 23
- Special Teams Rank: 20
- SOS Rank Through Week 8: 4
The Rams are on a two-game winning streak, but the manner of their victory over the Vikings was even more exciting than the result. The offense was superb, scoring 30 points and operating at its very best with Kupp and Nacua back in the fold.
It hasn’t been pretty, but the Rams have done a superb job getting to 3-4 with the fourth-toughest schedule and without two of their main playmakers.
The defense will be a concern going forward because this unit has looked exploitable, allowing 20+ points in all but one of their games. However, the offense in its current form is capable of topping 20 points with regularity. Los Angeles’ schedule gets easier from here, and there is a believable path to both a playoff spot and potentially even the division title.
11) Arizona Cardinals (4-4)
- Offense+ Rank: 8
- Defense+ Rank: 31
- Special Teams Rank: 17
- SOS Rank Through Week 8: 1
If you can figure out the Cardinals this year and have a surefire way of predicting how they will play, please reach out to me @BenRolfePFN with the answer because they are the most befuddling team right now.
Ultimately, this ranking suits Arizona almost perfectly. In the last five games, the Cardinals have lost two by 20+ points each and won three by a combination of four points.
The underlying metrics for the Cardinals’ offense are better than the actual performances have been. Despite having a top-10 offense in Defense+ and a top-five offense in red-zone EPA per play, they are 18th in points per game.
Things with Arizona just don’t fully add up, and we’re still waiting to see which version will emerge through the rest of the year.
The defense is bad in general but has been above average in the red zone. That has kept the Cardinals in games this year and allowed them to win three of their last four by an average of 1.33 points per game. If this defense remains this bad, the offense will have to be almost perfect.
12) New Orleans Saints (2-6)
- Offense+ Rank: 21
- Defense+ Rank: 19
- Special Teams Rank: 14
- SOS Rank Through Week 8: 10
The New Orleans Saints have divebombed through these rankings, essentially mirroring their fall through the standings. This should be the nadir of their ranking with Derek Carr expected back this week and a matchup with the Panthers. If Carr can stay healthy, New Orleans still has a real shot to make a playoff run despite being on a six-game losing streak and losing by 20+ points for three straight weeks.
The defense has pretty much stabilized as a league-average unit. That’s fine when paired with a good offense, but it’s a problem when paired with a Spencer Rattler offense.
Additionally, the Saints have the second-easiest schedule going forward, giving them a great chance to win the seven or eight games they will need to have a chance of making the playoffs.
13) Atlanta Falcons (5-3)
- Offense+ Rank: 10
- Defense+ Rank: 27
- Special Teams Rank: 24
- SOS Rank Through Week 8: 12
The Atlanta Falcons may be the most surprising of the teams ranked in the bottom half, given that they are currently atop the NFC South and third in the NFC playoff picture. However, their metrics tell of a team that has overachieved in getting to 5-3. Just one of Atlanta’s wins is by more than one score, with the other four being by a combined 14 points.
The numbers tell you that this is an average team at best. The offense is good without being great, which is fine if the defense wasn’t one of the worst in the NFL. There is every chance that the Falcons will still win the division because they have the fourth-easiest remaining schedule, and both the Buccaneers and Saints are dealing with injury issues that have limited them.
The problem for the Falcons will be whether they can be competitive against better teams if they do make the playoffs. They very well could end up facing the NFC North runner-up or the third-placed team in that division, both of which are likely to be superior teams on the field unless things change.
14) New York Giants (2-6)
- Offense+ Rank: 29
- Defense+ Rank: 13
- Special Teams Rank: 21
- SOS Rank Through Week 8: 6
Monday’s game against the Steelers was indicative of what we’ve seen all year from the Giants. The defense fought hard to keep them in the game, limiting opponents to field goals and forcing turnovers, only for the offense to squander every opportunity they were given.
It has certainly been a tough start for the Giants, with their schedule ranking as the sixth-hardest. Things should get easier from here, with New York’s remaining schedule ranking eighth.
However, even with that, the offense has to improve considerably. Daniel Jones’ QB+ for the season is ninth-lowest with a grade of D+, and the offense is among the bottom five in several categories.
15) Dallas Cowboys (3-4)
- Offense+ Rank: 22
- Defense+ Rank: 26
- Special Teams Rank: 5
- SOS Rank: 7
For the briefest of time during the first half on Sunday Night Football, the Cowboys threatened to be back as a competitive force in the NFC. Then they fell apart spectacularly in the third quarter before attempting to rally in the fourth, by which point it was too late.
The Cowboys’ schedule doesn’t get much easier, ranking as the ninth-hardest the rest of the way. That is why our playoff predictor gives them a less than 10% chance of making the postseason.
For Dallas to have any chance, Dak Prescott has to play better (currently ranks 24th in QB+ with a grade of D+). Without improvement from Prescott, the Cowboys’ offense won’t get to the point it needs to be to overcome the defense’s issues.
16) Carolina Panthers (1-7)
- Offense+ Rank: 27
- Defense+ Rank: 32
- Special Teams Rank: 21
- SOS Rank Through Week 8: 14
There’s not much more left to say on this subject. This season has been one of the ugliest for any NFL team in recent memory.
Carolina should stick with Bryce Young because it has to find out if he can be a starter in the future. The focus cannot be on the results but on the offense’s performances. If Young can get this offense to league-average acumen, maybe they have something.