The NFC North has been the best division in the NFL for much of the 2024 season. With three likely playoff teams as well as one of the top Super Bowl favorites, the division figures to be decided in the final weeks of the season.
What does the NFC North race look like through Week 12? Below we use Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor to evaluate the postseason chances for the Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, and Green Bay Packers.
Detroit Lions’ Playoff Chances After Week 12
The Lions are 10-1 in the midst of a nine-game winning streak. That’s the best record in the NFC and tied with the Kansas City Chiefs for the best record in football overall, which is why they have a 99.7% chance of making the playoffs, according to PFN’s Playoff Predictor.
The @Lions have won 10+ games in consecutive seasons for the first time in franchise history.#OnePride pic.twitter.com/461Ge3Q7Hr
— Detroit Lions PR (@LionsPR) November 24, 2024
Their chance of winning the NFC North is at 68.4% after their Week 12 win. Here’s how likely Detroit is to land in each of the NFC’s seeding slots:
- No. 1 seed: 57.4%
- No. 2 seed: 10.1%
- No. 3 seed: 0.9%
- No. 4 seed: <0.1%
- No. 5 seed: 25.5%
- No. 6 seed: 5.0%
- No. 7 seed: 0.9%
Moreover, PFN’s model gives Detroit a 36.9% chance of winning its first Super Bowl in February, the best odds of any team in the league.
Lions’ Remaining 2024 Schedule
- Week 13: vs. Chicago Bears
- Week 14: vs. Green Bay Packers
- Week 15: vs. Buffalo Bills
- Week 16: at Chicago Bears
- Week 17: at San Francisco 49ers
- Week 18: vs. Minnesota Vikings
Four of the Lions’ final five games are against teams currently .500 or better. Detroit has the NFL’s second-most difficult remaining schedule after Week 12.
Minnesota Vikings’ Playoff Chances After Week 12
The Vikings are 9-2 and a game behind the Lions for the NFC North lead, as well as the top seed in the NFC, after escaping the Bears with an overtime win in Week 12.
Minnesota lost the first head-to-head to the Lions in Week 7 but can even the series with a win at Detroit in the regular season finale.
The Vikings’ chances of winning the NFC North sit at 20.7% after their Week 12 win. Here’s how likely Minnesota is to land in each of the NFC’s seeding slots:
- No. 1 seed: 15.3%
- No. 2 seed: 4.8%
- No. 3 seed: 0.6%
- No. 4 seed: <0.1%
- No. 5 seed: 33.1%
- No. 6 seed: 34.0%
- No. 7 seed: 7.9%
PFN’s model gives Minnesota a 4.2% chance of winning its first Super Bowl in February.
Vikings’ Remaining 2024 Schedule
- Week 13: vs. Arizona Cardinals
- Week 14: vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Week 15: vs. Chicago Bears
- Week 16: at Seattle Seahawks
- Week 17: vs. Green Bay Packers
- Week 18: at Detroit Lions
Five of the Vikings’ final six games are against teams currently at or above .500. Minnesota has the NFL’s seventh-most difficult remaining schedule after Week 12.
Green Bay Packers’ Playoff Chances After Week 12
The Packers are 8-3, having won six of their last seven games. Two of their three losses are to the teams ahead of them in the division standings. Green Bay lost at home to both Minnesota (Week 4) and Detroit (Week 9), putting it behind the eight ball in the division race.
The Packers’ chances of making the playoffs are at 94.1%, and their odds of winning the NFC North are 10.9% after their Week 12 win vs. the San Francisco 49ers. Here’s how likely Green Bay is to land in each of the NFC’s seeding slots:
- No. 1 seed: 7.3%
- No. 2 seed: 3.2%
- No. 3 seed: 0.4%
- No. 4 seed: <0.1%
- No. 5 seed: 35.7%
- No. 6 seed: 36.6%
- No. 7 seed: 10.9%
Additionally, PFN’s model gives Green Bay an 8.0% chance of winning its fifth Super Bowl in February.
Packers’ Remaining 2024 Schedule
- Week 13: vs. Miami Dolphins
- Week 14: at Detroit Lions
- Week 15: at Seattle Seahawks
- Week 16: vs. New Orleans Saints
- Week 17: at Minnesota Vikings
- Week 18: vs. Chicago Bears
The Packers have the NFL’s sixth-most difficult remaining schedule after Week 12.