The NFC North has been the most competitive division of the 2024 NFL season. While the Chicago Bears have been eliminated from the postseason, the other three teams remain in Super Bowl contention.
Using PFN’s Playoff Predictor, let’s take a look at the scenarios that could see any of the Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, or Green Bay Packers emerge with the division title and potential top seed in the NFC.
Which Teams Are Still Competing for the NFC North Crown?
Detroit Lions (12-2)
The Lions have a 60.5% chance to win the division after Week 15. Here is Detroit’s remaining schedule:
- Week 16: at Chicago Bears
- Week 17: at San Francisco 49ers
- Week 18: vs. Minnesota Vikings
Detroit’s loss to the Buffalo Bills definitely impacted their playoff seeding, but they still lead the current division. The Packers defeated the Seahawks, 30-13 on Sunday Night Football and the Vikings defeated the Bears, 30-12, on Monday Night Football.
With the Lions and Vikings both at 12-2, Green Bay’s only chance of winning the division is a 3-0 finish coupled with a 0-3 Lions and Vikings finish. This is why PFN’s model gives the Packers just an 8.5% chance of winning the division.
Detroit has the fifth-hardest remaining strength of schedule, and with a tough game against the Vikings to finish the year.
The Lions will obviously win the division if they win out, but they can also win it if they lose one more game against a team other than the Vikings. A second win over Minnesota in Week 18 would clinch the head-to-head tiebreaker.
If Detroit and Minnesota split the series and end with the same record, we would go to the common games tiebreaker. There are still a few too many games left at this point to determine who would hold the edge in that category.
Head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture and the current NFL postseason bracket.
Minnesota Vikings (12-2)
The Vikings have a 31.1% chance to win the division after Week 15. Here is Minnesota’s remaining schedule:
- Week 16: at Seattle Seahawks
- Week 17: vs. Green Bay Packers
- Week 18: at Detroit Lions
The Vikings lost back-to-back games after their 5-0 start, but they’re on another lengthy winning streak, having won seven straight after their Monday Night Football matchup vs. the Bears.
Minnesota has kept pace with Detroit and has a realistic chance of usurping the Lions for both the division and home-field advantage if it wins the rematch in Week 18. That game could very easily be the difference between the No. 1 seed and the No. 5 seed for both teams.
In the meantime, the Vikings don’t get much of a break. Minnesota has the third-hardest remaining strength of schedule, with this week’s Bears game marking its only remaining game against a team currently below .500.
The Vikings absolutely must win the rematch with the Lions in Week 18 to claim the division. It’s mathematically possible for them to do so without that win, but Detroit would have to lose each of its other three games, while Minnesota would need to sweep all of theirs.
Green Bay Packers (9-4)
As mentioned, entering Week 15, the Packers had a 2.8% chance to win the division. However, a win over the Seahawks did increase their odds to 8.5%. Here is Green Bay’s remaining schedule:
- Week 16: vs. New Orleans Saints
- Week 17: at Minnesota Vikings
- Week 18: vs. Chicago Bears
The Packers’ four losses have all come to the teams with a better record than them in the NFC (Lions, Vikings, and Philadelphia Eagles). They’re 9-0 against all other teams.
As explained in the Lions section, Green Bay’s loss in Week 14 virtually eliminated the Packers from division contention. Still, Green Bay is in a strong spot to finish in a Wild Card spot, where they’d potentially be road favorites against one of the weaker NFC division winners from the West or South.