The best division of the 2024 NFL season has been the NFC North. It was the first division since the 1970 merger to have three teams with eight or more wins through 12 weeks. And while the Chicago Bears have been eliminated from the postseason, the other three teams remain in Super Bowl contention.
Using PFN’s Playoff Predictor, let’s take a look at the scenarios that could see any of the Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, or Green Bay Packers emerge with the division title and potential top seed in the NFC.
NFC North Playoff Scenarios | Week 14 Update
Thursday Night Football Results
- Detroit Lions (12-1) def. Green Bay Packers (9-4)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET Results
- Minnesota Vikings (11-2) def. Atlanta Falcons (6-7)
According to PFN’s Playoff Predictor, Detroit currently has a 70.6% chance to win the NFC North, while the Vikings have a 25.7% chance, and the Packers sit at 3.7%. These numbers will update as games are finished throughout the week.
Below you can see the NFC North scenarios heading into Sunday.
Which Teams Are Still Competing for the NFC North Crown?
Detroit Lions (12-1)
The Lions have a 71.7% chance to win the division after their Week 14 win over the Packers. Here is Detroit’s remaining schedule:
- Week 15: vs. Buffalo Bills
- Week 16: at Chicago Bears
- Week 17: at San Francisco 49ers
- Week 18: vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Lions have now won 11 straight games, the longest winning streak in franchise history. This is also the first time in franchise history they’ve won double-digit games in back-to-back seasons.
The Lions’ win on Thursday virtually eliminated the Packers from the division race, as Detroit is now three games ahead with the head-to-head tiebreaker in hand.
Thus, Green Bay’s only chance of winning the division is a 4-0 finish coupled with a 0-4 Lions finish. This is why PFN’s model gives Green Bay just a 3.8% chance of winning the division.
Detroit has the third-hardest remaining strength of schedule. Beyond their rematch with the Vikings, they also host the AFC heavyweight Buffalo Bills in Week 15.
The Lions will obviously win the division if they win out, but they can also win it if they lose one more game against a team other than the Vikings. A second win over Minnesota would clinch the head-to-head tiebreaker. If the Lions and Vikings split the series and end with the same record, we would go to the common games tiebreaker. There are still too many games left at this point to determine who would hold the edge in that category.
Minnesota Vikings (10-2)
The Vikings have a 24.5% chance to win the division entering their Week 14 contest. Here is Minnesota’s remaining schedule:
- Week 14: vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Week 15: vs. Chicago Bears (MNF)
- Week 16: at Seattle Seahawks
- Week 17: vs. Green Bay Packers
- Week 18: at Detroit Lions
The Vikings lost back-to-back games after their 5-0 start but are on another lengthy winning streak, having won five straight entering a grudge match against their former quarterback Kirk Cousins and the Atlanta Falcons in Week 14.
Minnesota has kept pace with Detroit and has a realistic chance at usurping the Lions for both the division and home-field advantage if it can win the rematch in Week 18. That game could very easily be the difference between the No. 1 seed and the No. 5 seed for both teams.
In the meantime, the Vikings don’t get much of a break. Minnesota has the fifth-hardest remaining strength of schedule, with a Monday night game against the Bears marking their only remaining game against a team currently below .500.
The Vikings absolutely must win the rematch with the Lions in Week 18 to claim the division. It’s mathematically possible for them to do so without that win, but Detroit would have to lose three of its other four games and the Vikings would need to sweep the rest of their games.
Green Bay Packers (9-4)
Entering Thursday’s game against the Lions, the Packers had a 10.9% chance to win the division. However, after losing to Detroit, their odds are now 3.8%. Here is Green Bay’s remaining schedule:
- Week 15: at Seattle Seahawks
- Week 16: vs. New Orleans Saints
- Week 17: at Minnesota Vikings
- Week 18: vs. Chicago Bears
The Packers’ last three losses have come to the two teams ahead of them in the NFC North standings.
As explained in the Lions section, Green Bay’s loss on Thursday virtually eliminated the Packers from division contention.
Still, Green Bay is in a strong spot to finish in a Wild Card spot, where they’d likely be road favorites against one of the weaker NFC division winners from the West or South.