The best division of the 2024 NFL season has been the NFC North. It was the first division since the 1970 merger to have three teams with eight or more wins through 12 weeks. And while the Chicago Bears have disintegrated, the other three teams remain in Super Bowl contention.
Using PFN’s Playoff Predictor, let’s take a look at the scenarios that could see any of the Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, or Green Bay Packers emerge with the division title and potential top seed in the NFC.
NFC North Playoff Scenarios | Week 13 Update
The relevant results of the division title race are below and will be tracked and updated throughout the week.
NFC North Standings
1. Detroit Lions (11-1)
2. Minnesota Vikings (10-2)
3. Green Bay Packers (9-3)
4. Chicago Bears (4-8)
Thursday Games Update
Lions (11-1) defeated Bears (4-8)
Packers (9-3) defeated Dolphins (5-7)
Sunday 1 p.m. Games Update
Vikings (10-2) defeated Cardinals (6-6)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the NFC North entering Sunday of Week 13. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
How Can the Detroit Lions Win the NFC North?
The Lions escaped catastrophe on Thanksgiving, nearly blowing a 16-0 lead to the last-place Bears. Of course, their win was aided by the Bears’ clock mismanagement, which was so egregious that it was a contributing factor to why Matt Eberflus became the first head coach to have a midseason firing in the franchise’s 105-year history.
Nevertheless, Detroit has now won 10 consecutive games, tying the longest streak in franchise history set back in 1934. This is also the first time in franchise history they’ve won double-digit games in back-to-back seasons.
The best game of Week 14 may be the first one, as the Lions will host the Packers on Thursday night. A Lions win would virtually eliminate the Packers from the division race, as Detroit would be three games ahead with the head-to-head tiebreaker in hand. Thus, the only way Green Bay could win the division at that point would be a 4-0 finish coupled with a 0-4 Lions finish.
After the Sunday night game, the Lions have a 65.5% chance to win the division.
Lions’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 14: vs. Green Bay Packers
- Week 15: vs. Buffalo Bills
- Week 16: at Chicago Bears
- Week 17: at San Francisco 49ers
- Week 18: vs. Minnesota Vikings
How Can the Minnesota Vikings Win the NFC North?
The Vikings lost back-to-back games after their 5-0 start but are on another lengthy win streak, having won five straight after a 13-point second-half comeback against the Arizona Cardinals.
Minnesota has kept pace with Detroit and has a realistic chance at usurping the Lions for both the division and home-field advantage if it can win the rematch in Week 18. That game could very easily be the difference between the No. 1 seed and the No. 5 seed for both teams.
In the meantime, the Vikings don’t get much of a break. Minnesota has the seventh-hardest remaining strength of schedule, with a Monday night game against the Bears marking their only remaining game against a team currently below .500.
After the Sunday night game, the Vikings have a 23.6% chance to win the division.
Vikings’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 14: vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Week 15: vs. Chicago Bears (MNF)
- Week 16: at Seattle Seahawks
- Week 17: vs. Green Bay Packers
- Week 18: at Detroit Lions
How Can the Green Bay Packers Win the NFC North?
On Thanksgiving night, the Packers held serve in an important home win over the streaking Miami Dolphins. The Packers have quietly won three straight games but look like the clear third wheel in this division race since their last two losses have come to the two teams ahead of them in the NFC North standings.
Still, Green Bay is in a strong spot to finish in a Wild Card spot, where they’d likely be road favorites against one of the weaker NFC division winners from the West or South. The division isn’t totally out of play, but it must start with a win at Detroit on Thursday night.
The Packers have the third-hardest remaining strength of schedule, mostly due to their two road trips to face the Lions and Vikings. Another road game against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 15 could also end up being a Wild Card round preview.
After the Sunday night game, the Packers have a 10.9% chance to win the division.
Packers’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 14: at Detroit Lions
- Week 15: at Seattle Seahawks
- Week 16: vs. New Orleans Saints
- Week 17: at Minnesota Vikings
- Week 18: vs. Chicago Bears