The NFC North appeared to be in the bag for the Detroit Lions a couple of weeks ago, but suddenly, there is a threat looming from both the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings. With a two-game lead entering the final four weeks, the Lions have a nice buffer, but with the Vikings and Lions squaring off twice in the final three weeks, things could yet change.
NFC North Playoff Scenarios – Week 15 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Saturday, Dec. 16 at 6:30 a.m. ET before Saturday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After the 4 p.m. ET slate on Sunday in Week 15, the Lions are the No. 3 seed in the NFC, the Vikings are the No. 6 seed, the Packers are 11th in the standings, and the Bears are in the 13th spot in the conference. Green Bay has also been knocked out of NFC North contention.
Saturday Games
Bengals (8-6) defeated Vikings (7-7)
Lions (10-4) defeated Broncos (7-7)
1 p.m. Games Update
Panthers (2-12) defeated Falcons (6-8)
Buccaneers (7-7) defeated the Packers (6-8)
Saints (7-7) defeated the Giants (5-9)
Browns (9-5) defeated Bears (5-9)
4 p.m. Games Update
Bills (8-6) defeated Cowboys (10-4)
Rams (7-7) defeated Commanders (4-10)
49ers (11-3) defeated Cardinals (3-11)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the NFC North entering Saturday of Week 15. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Were the NFC North Scenarios for the Lions, Vikings, and Packers Entering Week 15?
Entering Week 15, all three teams remain in play for the NFC North. The Lions are still clear favorites, with ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) giving them an 83.7% chance of winning the division. Meanwhile, the FPI gives the Vikings a 13.4% chance and the Packers a 2.9% chance.
As things stand, the Lions (9-4) lead the division by two games from the Vikings (7-6), with the Packers a game further back at (6-7). The simplest path to the division being clinched is for the Lions to win their next two games and put the division out of reach of both teams. The Vikings and Packers would both be at least three games back with two to play.
For the Packers to win the division, they realistically need to go 4-0, hope the Lions lose three of their last four, and the Vikings lose two of their last four. The Packers face the Vikings in Week 17, so they could hand Minnesota one of those losses. For the Packers, it will likely come down to the NFL playoff tiebreakers, making that Week 17 game and the two games between the Vikings and Lions in Weeks 16 and 18 crucial.
The Packers split their regular-season games with the Lions 1-1. They lost to the Vikings the first time around but can even that up at 1-1 in Week 17. However, if Minnesota sweeps Detroit, then they would have the superior head-to-head in the event of a three-way tie. Additionally, it would take the Vikings to four divisional wins, so the Packers would need to beat the Bears in Week 18 to match that.
If that is the case and the Packers and Vikings are tied at 10-7 with an equal number of divisional wins, then it will come down to common opponents. The Vikings are currently 5-5 against common opponents with two games to play against them. The Packers are 5-4 with three to play and would get to an unassailable 8-4 if they go 4-0 in the last four weeks.
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For that head-to-head to come into play, the Lions would have to lose to the Vikings twice, as well as the Denver Broncos and Dallas Cowboys. However, with their performance against the Bears last week, it cannot be ruled out.
The Vikings are actually the only team in the division that controls their destiny. If they go 4-0, they will take the division based on a head-to-head sweep of the Lions. However, if they lose to either the Bengals or Packers, then they will need a Detroit loss to Denver or Dallas to help them.
The worst the Vikings can do and make the playoffs is go 2-2. they would need to sweep the Lions and hope Detroit loses to the Broncos and Cowboys. Additionally, they would need the Packers to lose at least one of their games. That would create a two or three-way tie at 9-7, which the Vikings would win on account of their head-to-head sweep of the Lions.
If the Lions win this week and the Vikings lose, then Detroit would just need to avoid defeat in the final three weeks to clinch the division. Even a tie against the Vikings or Cowboys in those last three weeks would be enough to put the division beyond the reach of the Vikings or Packers.
Somewhat unbelievably, the division remains alive in Week 15 and could go right down to Week 18. Detroit will hope they can shut down any talk of that in the next two weeks and turn their attention to the number one seed in the NFC.
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