While the NFC North appeared to be somewhat tightening, losses by the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers gave the Detroit Lions a significant buffer heading into Week 16. The Packers and Chicago Bears have been eliminated from winning the division in 2023, while Minnesota’s chances are hanging by a thread.
Can the Lions clinch the NFC North this week? What has to happen for the Vikings to win the division? Let’s explore every scenario.
NFC North Playoff Scenarios | Week 16 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Dec. 24 at 9:30 a.m. ET before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After Week 16, the Lions have clinched the NFC North and are currently the No. 3 seed in the NFC.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Packers (7-8) defeated Panthers (2-13)
Lions (11-4) defeated Vikings (7-8)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
Bears (6-9) defeated Cardinals (3-12)
Dolphins (11-4) defeated Cowboys (10-5)
Monday Update
Eagles (11-4) defeated Giants (5-10)
Ravens (12-3) defeated 49ers (11-4)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the NFC North entering Week 16. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
NFC North Playoff Scenarios Entering Week 16
The NFC North featured much more intriguing scenarios heading into last week’s set of games than it does now. Potential situations have narrowed considerably with the Packers no longer in the mix.
The Lions (10-4) have a three-game lead over the Vikings (7-7) with three games remaining, so there’s only one way the Vikings can win the division — win out, and get some help.
Minnesota always lurked as Detroit’s primary threat in the NFC North, if only because the clubs will face each other twice over the season’s final three games. For most of the year, the Vikings could pin their hopes on the fact that they would have a chance, as long as they were within two games of the Lions with three weeks remaining.
Well, that chance all but evaporated when Minnesota allowed Cincinnati Bengals backup QB Jake Browning to lead three fourth-quarter touchdown drives and win in overtime.
Had the Vikings held on last week, they would have controlled their own destiny. Sure, Minnesota would have had to win both of its remaining games against Detroit, plus its Week 17 matchup against Green Bay.
Now, HC Kevin O’Connell’s club not only has to beat the Lions twice over the next three weeks, but Minnesota has to hope the Dallas Cowboys also take down Detroit in Week 18. In that scenario, the Lions and Vikings would finish with identical 10-7 records, while Minnesota would win the division based on its head-to-head sweep.
MORE: NFL Week 16 Playoff Bracket
One more win for Detroit, and the NFC North is theirs. Even a tie over the next three weeks would be enough for the Lions to win their first division title since 1993. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) pegs Detroit’s odds at 95.3% entering Week 16.
While the Vikings are a long shot to win the NFC North, they still have a chance to make the playoffs in some capacity. FPI pegs them as 47% likely to enter the postseason.
Minnesota cannot reach the fifth seed, which the NFC East loser will control. As such, the Vikings are competing with the Los Angeles Rams (8-7), Seattle Seahawks (7-7), Packers (6-8), and the NFC South losers for two Wild Card spots.
At worst, winning out will give the Vikings a Wild Card berth. Minnesota will likely make the postseason by finishing 2-1, and there are a few scenarios by which they could enter the tournament while closing the year with a 1-2 mark.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!
