The race for the NFC No. 1 seed has seen a number of twists and turns over the past few weeks. With the San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, and Philadelphia Eagles all jostling for position, who is in the pole position, and how can they clinch a Wild Card Weekend bye? Meanwhile, what does each of the three chasing teams need to happen if they are to grab that all-important No. 1 seed in the NFC?
Let’s take a look at the NFC No. 1 seed playoff scenarios for the 49ers, Cowboys, Eagles, and Lions with the assistance of the free PFN NFL Playoff Predictor.
NFC No. 1 Seed Scenarios Update | Week 16
This article was originally published on Dec. 24 at 6:30 a.m. ET.
After Week 16, the San Francisco 49ers hold the No. 1 seed in the NFC with an 11-4 record. They hold tiebreakers over the No. 2 seed Philadelphia Eagles and No. 3 seed Detroit Lions, each of whom is also 11-4.
Sunday Updates
Lions (11-4) defeated Vikings (7-8)
Dolphins (11-4) defeated Cowboys (10-5)
Christmas Day Update
Eagles (11-4) defeated Giants (5-10)
Ravens (12-3) defeated 49ers (11-4)
What Are the San Francisco 49ers’ Playoff Scenarios for the No. 1 Seed?
Entering Week 16, the 49ers are in pole position in the race for the NFC No. 1 seed and with breathing room to spare.
Losses for the Cowboys and Eagles last week mean that the 49ers are now one game ahead of their three rivals for the top spot in the NFC standings with three games to play.
Additionally, the 49ers hold key playoff tiebreakers over each of the three. San Francisco defeated the Cowboys 42-10 back in Week 5 before taking down the Eagles 42-19 in Week 13. That gives them a head-to-head tiebreaker over both that will be crucial in a two- or three-way tie involving those teams.
The 49ers have not played the Lions, but they have a superior conference record over Detroit, Dallas, and Philadelphia as things stand. The 49ers are 9-1 within the division, while the other three teams all have three in-conference losses already.
Therefore, unless the 49ers lose both of their remaining games against their NFC opponents, they would have a tiebreaker over all four teams.
What all of this means is that there is a scenario where the 49ers could clinch the NFC No. 1 seed this week. If San Francisco wins and all three of the Cowboys, Lions, and Eagles lose, the 49ers would have everything locked up with two weeks to play.
MORE: NFL Week 16 Playoff Bracket
Here are the scenarios for the 49ers to clinch the NFC No. 1 seed:
- The 49ers win two of their remaining three games.
- The 49ers win one game, and all of the Lions, Cowboys, and Eagles lose a game.
- The Cowboys, Eagles, and Lions all fail to win two of their final three games.
What Are the Philadelphia Eagles’ Playoff Scenarios for the No. 1 Seed?
The Eagles’ loss on Monday Night Football last week had put a huge dent in their playoff ambitions. Philadelphia still clinched a playoff spot, but their path to the NFC East and the NFC No. 1 seed got a lot harder. Prior to last week, the Eagles held the division in their hands thanks to a superior conference record, but a loss to the Seattle Seahawks changed that.
The Eagles still have a slight advantage thanks to a 16-game lead in terms of strength of victory (SOV) over the Cowboys. However, if both teams win out, there could potentially be a 12-game swing in those standings, which would put it well within the margin of error for the Cowboys to usurp the Eagles on that tiebreaker.
That is the first step for the Eagles to compete for the NFC No. 1 seed. If they fail to win the division, they will be on the road on Wild Card Weekend as opposed to competing for a bye. Even if they win the division, they need the 49ers to drop two games, thanks to their Week 13 loss to the 49ers.
Realistically, the only way the Eagles can take home the No. 1 seed in the NFC is to go 3-0 and hope the 49ers lose two of their remaining games. Additionally, the 49ers would need the Cowboys to defeat the Lions in Week 17. If the Lions go 3-0, they would beat out the Eagles to the higher seed based on a 5-1 record against common opponents. The Eagles are 4-2 against those same teams with no way of improving that record.
What Are the Dallas Cowboys’ Playoff Scenarios for the No. 1 Seed?
The Cowboys playoff scenarios for the NFC No. 1 seed are quite convoluted. First and foremost, they almost need to win out at this point.
Unless the Eagles, Lions, and 49ers all implode down the stretch, the Cowboys cannot afford another loss. They need the victories over the Dolphins and Lions to help boost their SOV record in case of a tie with the Eagles in the NFC East.
Equally, the Cowboys need to defeat the Lions to essentially eliminate Detroit from the No. 1 seed picture. The winner of that game will add a potentially crucial head-to-head victory and put their opponent a further game down in their overall win percentage. Then, to finish it off, the Cowboys need the Eagles to lose at least two of their final three games.
There is a path where the Cowboys could lose a game, but they would need to beat the Lions in Week 17 at least. Then Dallas would likely need the Eagles to lose two and the 49ers to lose all three. It is mathematically feasible but highly unlikely all of that will happen.
What Are the Detroit Lions’ Playoff Scenarios for the No. 1 Seed?
The Lions are also fighting on two fronts entering Week 16. They will still have one eye firmly fixed on the Minnesota Vikings, who could steal the NFC North crown if the Lions go 0-3 and the Vikings win out.
Minnesota and Detroit face off in Weeks 16 and 18 in what could be crucial games for the Lions’ hopes of winning the division and chasing down the NFC No.1 seed.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
In terms of the NFC No. 1 seed, the Lions must win at least two of their remaining games and hope the 49ers lose either two or all three of their games. If the 49ers go 0-3, the Lions could surpass them with a 2-1 record.
However, a 1-2 record for the 49ers would require perfection from the Lions the rest of the way.
The team the Lions cannot really afford to lose to is the Cowboys in Week 17. That would give Dallas a crucial head-to-head tiebreaker and make it incredibly tough for the Lions to clinch the No. 1 seed. However, if the Lions beat the Cowboys in Week 17, that is potentially one team moved out of their way.
The other positive for the Lions is that if they go 3-0, neither NFC East team can be seeded higher than them. After the Eagles’ loss to the Seahawks last week, the Lions have the chance to claim a superior record in games against common opponents. The Eagles are locked in at 4-2, while the Lions could get to 5-1.
Therefore, the only help the Lions need is from the Ravens, Commanders, and Rams. If two of those three can beat the 49ers, the Lions could take the No. 1 seed if they win out.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!