The race for the NFC’s No. 1 seed is still ongoing with two weeks remaining in the 2023 NFL campaign. The San Francisco 49ers are currently atop the conference standings and have the pole position as the regular season concludes, but the Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions, and Dallas Cowboys remain in the conversation entering Week 17.
What needs to happen this weekend for each club in contention? Let’s dive into the details.
NFC No. 1 Seed Playoff Scenarios | Week 17 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Dec. 30 before Saturday’s game began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the weekend.
After the Sunday 1 p.m. ET slate in Week 17, the 49ers have now claimed the top seed in the NFC thanks to the Cardinals’ surprising defeat of the Eagles.
Saturday Night Update
Cowboys (11-5) defeated Lions (11-5)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET Update
49ers (12-4) defeated Commanders (4-12)
Cardinals (4-12) defeated Eagles (11-5)
Be sure to check out our NFL Playoff Predictor to predict the rest of Week 17 and see how the playoff field shakes out.
What Are the San Francisco 49ers’ Playoff Scenarios for the No. 1 Seed?
The 49ers are still the NFC’s one seed heading into Week 17 and remain the favorites to earn a first-round playoff bye from their conference. Still, their Monday night loss to the Baltimore Ravens undoubtedly put their chances of securing the top seed at more risk than Kyle Shanahan and Co. had been hoping for.
San Francisco, Philadelphia, and Detroit have identical 11-4 records with two weeks left to play. Head-to-head victories only come into play if one team has swept all the others with matching records, and the 49ers haven’t faced the Lions.
As such, the one seed is currently being determined by a conference record tiebreaker — the 49ers are 9-1 in the NFC, while the Eagles and Lions are 7-3.
San Francisco has already defeated Philadelphia and Dallas in head-to-head matchups, so the 49ers will have the edge if they end up in a tie with one or both of those clubs.
The 49ers control their own one-seed destiny. If QB Brock Purdy’s squad wins out, they will win the NFC West and secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. In fact, San Francisco can clinch the top seed as soon as this weekend.
If the 49ers beat the Washington Commanders in Week 17, while the Eagles lose to the Arizona Cardinals and the Lions fall to the Cowboys, they will secure the No. 1 seed.
MORE: AFC No. 1 Seed Playoff Scenarios — Ravens and Dolphins Vying for First-Round Bye
San Francisco could still earn the top spot if they lose one of their final two games, but the club might need help elsewhere. A loss to the Commanders this weekend or the Los Angeles Rams in Week 18 would crack the door open for one of the other NFC contenders to leap to the top of the conference standings.
However, Pro Football Network’s simulations suggest the 49ers are the clear favorites — 66% chance to land the No. 1 seed.
What Are the Philadelphia Eagles’ Playoff Scenarios for the No. 1 Seed?
Philadelphia’s one-seed odds are well behind San Francisco’s. PFN’s simulations give the Eagles just a 17% chance of earning a first-round playoff bye.
The Birds need to win out and hope San Francisco and Detroit lose at least one game each. In any scenario in which the Eagles end up tied with either the 49ers or the Lions, they’d lose the No. 1 seed, based on tiebreakers.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
Technically, Philadelphia could drop one of its two remaining games, but it would need the 49ers and Lions to both lose out.
If the Eagles lose this weekend, while the 49ers win, Philadelphia will be eliminated from the one-seed race.
What Are the Detroit Lions’ Playoff Scenarios for the No. 1 Seed?
Like the 49ers and Eagles, the Lions have already clinched a playoff berth. And like San Francisco, Detroit has already secured a first-round home playoff game by winning their division in Week 16.
But there’s more work to be done by Dan Campbell’s squad. PFN’s simulations give the Lions a 15% chance of grabbing the NFC’s one seed, putting them roughly in line with the Eagles.
Detroit cannot pass San Francisco if the two teams finish the season with the same record, as the 49ers would win a playoff tiebreaker, thanks to their better mark in the NFC.
The Lions need to win one more game than the 49ers over the next two weeks, but that might be easier said than done.
With games against the Cowboys and the Vikings, the Lions have the NFL’s sixth-hardest remaining schedule by DVOA. The 49ers’ slate (at WAS, vs. LAR) is the fourth-easiest.
If Detroit wins out, they will not finish any lower than the No. 2 seed. Even if the Eagles win their remaining games to match the Lions at 13-4, Detroit’s record against common opponents would give them the edge.
Detroit can be eliminated from one-seed contention in Week 17. If the Lions lose to the Cowboys, and either the 49ers or the Eagles win on Sunday, Detroit will no longer be able to secure the top slot.
What Are the Dallas Cowboys’ Playoff Scenarios for the No. 1 Seed?
First and foremost, the Cowboys will need to win the NFC East over the Eagles before they can win the NFC’s No. 1 seed. Dallas still has a path to the top spot in the conference, but it’s incredibly narrow. PFN’s simulations give the Cowboys just a 2% chance to finish in the one slot.
The Cowboys need to win both of their remaining games, have the Eagles lose one of two, and hope the 49ers lose out. In any other scenario, Dallas will finish as the fifth seed.
If the Cowboys lose or the 49ers win on Sunday, Dallas is out of the one-seed race.
Regardless of how the rest of the season plays out, neither the Eagles nor the Cowboys can finish as the NFC’s sixth or seventh seed — the fifth spot is both clubs’ floor.
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