In the seven-team NFL playoff format, only the No. 1 seed in each conference gets a first-round bye. The NFC’s home-field advantage race is a three-team competition between the Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles, and Minnesota Vikings.
Who will end up with the NFC’s top seed? With the help of PFN’s Playoff Predictor, let’s run through the various scenarios and top-seed odds for the three teams with the clearest paths to claim the NFC’s No. 1 seed.
Breaking Down the Updated NFC No. 1 Seed Scenarios
In Week 15, the Lions faced off against the Buffalo Bills at home, and even though they were the favorites, Josh Allen put on another show, handing Detroit a loss. That means the Lions are now 12-2 on the year.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia won a hard-fought matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the battle of Pennsylvania. The Eagles, after a rocky start, have put together 10 straight wins and are now also 12-2.
What does that all mean for the No. 1 seed? Well, ultimately, it will come down to the season’s final three games. Detroit has a divisional matchup against the Bears in Week 16, and then they face off against the San Francisco 49ers and, finally, the Vikings (who are also in contention for the top seed).
Looking at PFN’s Playoff Predictor, the Lions currently have a 42.4% chance to win the No. 1 seed. Even after their loss, they still have the highest percentage chance. However, it is much closer than it once was.
The Eagles have to face the entire NFC East to finish the year. They play the Dallas Cowboys in Week 16, followed by the Washington Commanders, before finishing with the New York Giants. Although the Cowboys have been playing better, the Eagles still have a pretty easy strength of schedule compared to that of the Lions.
That being said, PFN gives the Eagles a slightly lower 33% chance of being the top seed.
Let’s say the Eagles and Lions win and finish the year 15-2. Then, the No. 1 seed would come down to conference record, with the Lions having an 11-1 record compared to the Eagle’s 10-2 record. This would give Detroit the upper hand and the best seed in the NFC via tiebreaker.
That takes care of the Lions and Eagles, but what about the Vikings? After their Week 15 win against the Bears, they are also now 12-2. They have the Seattle Seahawks, Green Bay Packers, and Lions left to play.
So, realistically, the top seed could come down to Week 18 between the Vikings and Lions if the Vikings and Lions both win their next two games. But it’s important to note that Minnesota has the hardest remaining schedule in the league, as Chicago is the only sub-.500 team left on its schedule.
The Vikings have a chance to catch the Lions, win the NFC North, and earn the No. 1 seed. However, they could also fall to third place in the division, given their tough remaining slate and the fact that they only have a two-game lead over the 9-4 Packers (who they play in Week 17).
They have clinched a playoff spot after their Week 15 victory, so they are guaranteed a spot in the playoffs. PFN currently gives the Vikings a 20.2% chance of winning the NFC after their Week 15 Monday Night Football matchup.
As for seeding, we’ll see how it plays out over the next few weeks. Head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture and the current NFL postseason bracket.