The NFC No. 1 seed was decided in Week 18 after a two-horse race between the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings. Just to make it juicier, the two teams faced off on Sunday Night Football to decide who would get Wild Card Weekend off and secure home-field advantage for as long as they are in the playoffs.
Did the Lions or Vikings Secure the No. 1 Seed?
The Lions defeated the Vikings 31-9, and they are the No. 1 seed in the NFC, while the Vikings are the 5th seed.
Entering the week, the simplest way to have looked at Week 18 when it came to the NFC No. 1 seed was that it was a winner-takes-all. With both teams at 14-2 entering the week, the winner would be 15-2, and the loser would be 14-3. That meant that there could be no doubt of which team would be the No. 1 seed in the NFC, as they will be clear at the top of the NFC’s standings.
Our metrics gave the Lions a 56.2% chance of clinching the No. 1 seed and the Vikings a 43.8% chance. The Lions were top of the PFN Power Rankings and playing at home, while the Vikings were third and conversely on the road.
Since Detroit clinched the No. 1 seed, they will watch Wild Card Weekend at home before hosting a Divisional Round game. The Lions will host the lowest remaining seed in the NFC playoff picture. Interestingly, our current metrics indicate that they could be hosting the Vikings in the Divisional Round.
The Vikings will be the fifth seed, and our metrics favor them against the Los Angeles Rams. If they get past that, the playoff field will be re-seeded, and the Lions will face the lowest-remaining side.
The only team that the Lions cannot face in the Divisional Round is the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles cannot be the lowest remaining seed as they finished as the No. 2 seed. Therefore, if they win on Wild Card Weekend, they will host the next-highest remaining seed in the Divisional Round.
However, our metrics indicate that the Eagles facing the Lions is the most likely NFC Championship Game.
To simulate all the different scenarios, head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to see how they change the playoff picture and the NFL postseason bracket.