The second half of the NFL‘s regular season is underway, and the NFC East is down to a two-team race between the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders. While the Eagles were expected to be in the running for the division title, Washington has caught the league by surprise in 2024.
The Eagles got the best of the Commanders in Week 11 on Thursday Night Football, but a rematch awaits in Week 16 at Northwest Stadium. Now it’s time to take a look ahead to each team’s remaining schedule and their odds to win each game this season.
Analyzing the Eagles’ Remaining Schedule
All projected percent chances to win are according to PFN+.
The Eagles rattled off 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter, and it created enough cushion to win an all-important head-to-head matchup 26-18. The rest of Philly’s schedule contains a few elite teams, sprinkled in with uber-winnable games.
The Eagles, with Saquon Barkley in a starring role, have reestablished that they are clearly the team to beat in the NFC East…. https://t.co/VzP1nM7CLb
— MarkMaske (@MarkMaske) November 15, 2024
Week 12: at Los Angeles Rams (55% Chance To Win)
After a rough start to the regular season and dealing with injuries to several key players, the Los Angeles Rams have bounced back and remain in the NFC playoff race. While Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni has had success against Rams HC Sean McVay in the past, Los Angeles’ offense will certainly test Philadelphia’s scorching hot defense.
Week 12 will be Philadelphia’s final prime-time matchup of the regular season, as they’ll visit the Rams on Sunday Night Football. It’ll be interesting to see how Vic Fangio’s defense matches up with LA’s talented offense led by Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua.
Week 13: at Baltimore Ravens (37% Chance To Win)
According to PFN+, the Eagles have a less than 50% chance to win in just two of their eight remaining regular-season games. Philadelphia’s toughest matchup will be on the road against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 13.
Baltimore is led by likely MVP winner Lamar Jackson and potential Offensive Player of the Year winner Derrick Henry. If the Eagles can overcome their slim chance to win and pull off the upset win in Baltimore, they will cement themselves as a top NFL team.
Week 14: vs. Carolina Panthers (85% Chance To Win)
Philadelphia’s easiest game remaining on their regular-season schedule is likely in Week 14, when the struggling Carolina Panthers visit the City of Brotherly Love. While Panthers second-year quarterback Bryce Young has bounced back after an early-season benching, Carolina likely lacks the firepower to keep up with the Eagles in this one.
Week 15: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (56% Chance To Win)
The Pittsburgh Steelers got off to a 4-2 start with Justin Fields starting at quarterback. Then Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin made the bold decision to name Russell Wilson as the team’s new starting quarterback.
Since making the change, Pittsburgh is 3-0 and playing like one of the best offenses in the NFL. In Week 15, the Eagles will be put to the test in the “Battle for Pennsylvania,” as the Steelers will visit Philadelphia in a potentially monumental matchup for both teams.
Week 16: at Washington Commanders (51% Chance To Win)
Round 2 between the Eagles and Commanders in Week 16 could finally crown the winner of the NFC East after all. Washington has a slightly tougher schedule over the final two weeks of the regular season, which means it likely can’t afford to lose in Week 16. If either team is able to sweep the head-to-head series, they’ll likely win the division.
Week 17: vs. Dallas Cowboys (83% Chance To Win)
The Eagles embarrassed the Dallas Cowboys in Week 10, winning 34-6 on the road. In Week 17, the Cowboys will be forced to travel across the country and visit Philadelphia, as the Eagles will likely be attempting to lock up the division or playoff seeding.
Given that Dallas will be without starting quarterback Dak Prescott, Philadelphia should cruise to victory once again.
Week 18: vs. New York Giants (78% Chance To Win)
In Week 7, the Eagles dominated the New York Giants in Saquon Barkley’s return to MetLife Stadium. Philadelphia won 28-3 and will look to repeat its success against New York to close out the regular season.
It’ll be interesting to see if this game will have any meaning for the Eagles, as they could potentially look to rest starters ahead of the postseason.
Analyzing the Commanders’ Remaining Schedule
All projected percent chances to win are according to PFN+.
Week 12: vs. Dallas Cowboys (78% Chance To Win)
Similar to the Eagles, Washington will play both matchups against the Cowboys without Dak Prescott this season. Following a potential loss to Philadelphia, Washington will be in a great position to bounce back with a relatively easy remaining schedule over the following three weeks.
Despite having a 0.45% to defeat the Eagles in Week 11, the Commanders will have a 0.70% chance or better to win each of their following three games. If they can capitalize on a weak stretch during the regular season, their Week 16 matchup against the Eagles could decide the NFC East.
Week 13: vs. Tennessee Titans (71% Chance To Win)
The Tennessee Titans are one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL this season. After making several big splashes on offense in free agency, Tennessee has failed to convert that into on-field success in 2024.
The Commanders should be able to defeat the Titans rather handily in Week 13 and continue rolling toward a potentially unexpected postseason appearance.
Week 15: at New Orleans Saints (63% Chance To Win)
After a 2-0 start to the regular season, many were ready to crown the New Orleans Saints as the NFL’s next great offense. Yet, following several injuries, New Orleans crashed back down to earth, and the hype surrounding the Saints has quickly died down.
The Commanders should win in New Orleans, but the Saints could surprise Washington, especially if Derek Carr can remain healthy.
Week 16: vs. Philadelphia Eagles (49% Chance To Win)
The second meeting between Washington and Philadelphia could serve as a mini–Super Bowl for each team. Given that both have relatively easy schedules remaining in the second half of the regular season, the head-to-head matchups could decide who wins the NFC East.
If Washington falls short in Week 11, its rematch against the Eagles in Week 16 will likely be a must-win game for the Commanders.
Week 17: vs. Atlanta Falcons (67% Chance To Win)
Now here’s a matchup that differentiates the Eagles and Commanders down the final stretch of the regular season. While the Eagles will play the Cowboys and Giants in their last two games, Washington will visit the Atlanta Falcons in Week 17.
Atlanta already shocked the Eagles earlier in the regular season and remains one of the top teams in the NFC. If Washington is unable to fix its defensive issues by this point in the regular season, the Falcons could hand the Commanders a loss in Week 17.
Week 18: at Dallas Cowboys (72% Chance To Win)
Depending on what the Commanders do leading up to Week 18, this could be a meaningless game for Washington. If they have a playoff spot locked up, the Commanders will be able to rest their starters in Dallas.
But if Washington is fighting for a playoff spot, the Cowboys would surely love to spoil the postseason plans of a division rival in Week 18.