The NFC East is a two-team race through 10 weeks of the NFL season — but it’s not the two teams most thought would compete for the division title.
While the Philadelphia Eagles didn’t sneak up on anyone, Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders have surprisingly thrived in 2024, keeping the NFC East competitive even as the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants have struggled.
Let’s look at what the NFC East’s playoff chances and scenarios look like entering Week 11 when the Eagles and Commanders will square off on “Thursday Night Football.”
Philadelphia Eagles (7-2)
Jalen Hurts and Co. have won five straight games since losing to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 4. While the Cincinnati Bengals were the Eagles’ only opponent during that stretch with than four wins after Week 10, victories are victories — and Philadelphia has set itself up to contend for a prime slot in the NFC playoffs.
According to Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor, the Eagles have a 92.2% chance of making the postseason after defeating the Cowboys on Sunday. However, PFN’s model thinks Philadelphia is likelier to get into the dance via a Wild Card berth.
Jalen Hurts with his 2nd rushing TD of the day!
📺: #PHIvsDAL on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/g1Xt51UqYx— NFL (@NFL) November 10, 2024
Entering TNF, the Eagles have a 50/50 shot of winning the NFC East crown. If not, their odds for a Wild Card spot are below.
- No. 5 seed: 12.4%
- No. 6 seed: 15.8%
- No. 7 seed: 10.4%
A win over the Commanders on Thursday night would give the Eagles a massive advantage for the division title.
Washington Commanders (7-3)
PFN’s model is giving the Commanders a nearly 50% chance of winning the NFC East.
Dan Quinn’s team has a 5.7% shot at grabbing the NFC’s No. 1 overall seed, which would give them a first-round playoff bye. However, the Commanders’ most likely possibility — 26.3% — is the No. 2 seed.
The Commanders boast the NFL’s 10th-easiest schedule the rest of the way. The only problem? The Eagles’ slate is even less daunting, ranking as the fourth-easiest to close the campaign.
Dallas Cowboys (3-6)
The Cowboys are going nowhere fast. With Dak Prescott seemingly headed for season-ending hamstring surgery, backup quarterback Cooper Rush threw for just 45 yards on 23 attempts against the Eagles on Sunday before being benched for Trey Lance.
The good news is the Cowboys understood where this season was going and were sellers at the trade dea– pic.twitter.com/NpWDX8hvzM
— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) November 10, 2024
Following their loss to Philadelphia, PFN’s model gives Dallas just a 1% chance of making the playoffs. Winning the division? Not likely. Mike McCarthy’s squad has roughly 1-in-1,000 odds of overtaking the Eagles and Commanders for the NFC East crown.
With a projected win-loss record of 6-11, the Cowboys will be closer to earning a top-five pick in the 2025 NFL Draft than they are to entering the postseason. If Dallas loses double-digit games, McCarthy will almost surely be out of a job.
New York Giants (2-8)
We’re trying to be nice here. The Giants — whether they’re led by Daniel Jones or Drew Lock under center — would need to win the rest of their games and get some help from other clubs to even think about sneaking into the 2024-25 NFL playoffs.
You probably don’t need our fancy-schmancy model to tell you New York isn’t trending toward the playoffs. But you might like to know that PFN’s predictor gives the Giants a 0.1% chance of making the postseason — the lowest odds in the NFL.
Will the Giants bench Jones to avoid his injury guarantees? Will head coach Brian Daboll make it through the year? Unfortunately, those are more pressing storylines in East Rutherford, N.J., than whether Big Blue can get into the playoffs.