The NFC East will come down to the wire. The Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles have identical 10-4 records entering Week 16 and have already split their season series. While Dallas technically has the division lead thanks to its superior division record, Philadelphia controls its own NFC East destiny.
Both clubs have already secured a playoff berth, but the division is still up for grabs. Which team has the edge with three weeks remaining in the regular season? Let’s examine the Cowboys’ and Eagles’ playoff scenarios.
NFC East Playoff Scenarios | Week 16 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Sunday, Dec. 24 at 6:30 a.m. ET. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After Week 16, the Eagles are the No. 2 seed in the NFC, while the Cowboys are No. 5.
NFC East Standings
1. Philadelphia Eagles (11-4)
2. Dallas Cowboys (10-5)
3. New York Giants (5-9)
4. Washington Commanders (4-11)
Sunday Update
Jets (6-9) defeated Commanders (4-11)
Dolphins (11-4) defeated Cowboys (10-5)
Christmas Day Update
Eagles (11-4) defeated Giants (5-10)
Ravens (12-3) defeated 49ers (11-4)
The Giants have been eliminated from playoff contention.
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the NFC East entering Sunday of Week 16. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the NFC East Playoff Scenarios for the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles?
Before we dive into scenarios for the division, it’s crucial to understand why the Cowboys currently lead the division, but the Eagles control it.
Both teams enter Week 16 at 10-4, but Dallas tops the division thanks to a 4-1 divisional record, compared to 3-1 for Philadelphia.
If both teams win out in 2023, those divisional records will be equal at 5-1, forcing us to move onto Stage 2 of the NFL playoff tiebreakers. That second stage is “games against common opponents.” Currently, the Cowboys have a slight advantage at 7-3 with the Eagles at 6-3, but if both teams win out, they will be tied at 9-3 in that tiebreaker.
This is where Philadelpha’s advantage would show up. Because the Eagles’ third loss came to the AFC’s New York Jets, they only have three losses inside the NFC. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have lost to the Eagles, Arizona Cardinals, and San Francisco 49ers, giving them three defeats in the conference.
Therefore, if both teams win out down the stretch, the Eagles will be the NFC East champions.
Dallas’ primary concern is that it has few advantages in tiebreaking scenarios. Even if the two clubs end up with matching conference records, the Eagles’ strength of victory is .493 right now, compared to .379 for the Cowboys.
MORE: NFL Week 16 Playoff Bracket
While that could narrow in the coming weeks, it’s difficult to see it flipping completely.
Hypothetically, Dallas could lose one game to a non-division opponent while Philadelphia drops one of its two remaining matchups against the New York Giants. In that scenario, the Cowboys would have a 5-1 NFC East record compared to the Eagles’ 4-2 mark, giving Dallas the division title.
The other scenario that could come into play with a tie on the overall record would be if the Cowboys lose to the Detroit Lions and the Eagles lose to the Seattle Seahawks or Cardinals. That would give Dallas the edge regarding their common opponents and allow them to win the NFC East on that tiebreaker.
Of course, Dallas’ most straightforward path to clinching the division crown would be to win one more game than Philadelphia over the next three weeks. However, that could be easier said than done.
The Cowboys will face the Buffalo Bills (8-6), Miami Dolphins (10-4), Lions (10-4), and Washington Commanders (4-10) in the next four games. That’s 32 wins and 24 losses for their opponents, compared to 20 wins and 36 losses for the Eagles’ opponents (Seahawks, Cardinals, and Giants twice).
Entering this week, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives Philadelphia a 70.6% chance of winning the NFC East while handing Dallas the remaining 29.4%. While the Cowboys certainly aren’t out of the race, they need someone to upset the Eagles over the final three weeks.
Can Either NFC East Team Clinch the No. 1 Seed?
Winning the NFC East is the first step for the Cowboys and Eagles, but earning the No. 1 seed and first-round playoff bye is the next goal for both clubs.
However, the chances of either team securing that top seed took a significant hit when Dallas and Philadelphia lost in Week 15.
The Cowboys and Eagles are both 10-4, one game behind the 49ers in the conference standings.
Still, San Francisco already beat both clubs — handily, we might add. Brock Purdy and Co. hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over Dallas and Philadelphia, essentially giving them a two-game lead with three weeks remaining.
If either the Eagles or the Cowboys go undefeated in the next three weeks and clinch the division, they would still need the 49ers to lose two games.
While anything can happen in the NFL, San Francisco seems incredibly unlikely to drop a Week 17 tilt against the Washington Commanders. Hence, Philadelphia/Dallas has to hope the 49ers lose to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16 and the Los Angeles Rams in Week 18.
ESPN’s FPI isn’t buying the Eagles’ or Cowboys’ odds of earning the No. 1 seed, giving the 49ers an 89% chance of winning the top slot in the conference.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!