The gulf in the NFC East may be as wide as it has ever been, with only the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles remaining in contention entering Week 14. The big question over the past few weeks has been whether the Cowboys can steal an NFC East crown that has looked virtually perched on the Eagles’ heads at times.
With the help of the free PFN NFL playoff predictor, let’s examine how the race for the NFC East could play out over the coming weeks and what it all means for the number one seed in the NFC.
Week 14 Update
Cowboys (10-3) defeated Eagles (10-3)
Dallas now leads the NFC East after Week 14
49ers (10-3) defeated Seahawks (6-7)
San Francisco is now the NFC’s No. 1 seed
Dallas is No. 2, Philadelphia is No. 5
What Are the Playoff Scenarios in the NFC East Race?
It felt like last week changed things massively in the scope of the NFC and the race for the NFC East. However, as you dig deeper, the impact of the Eagles’ loss to the San Francisco 49ers was relatively minimal due to the way things stand with the NFL playoff tiebreakers.
Yes, the Cowboys are now only one game behind the Eagles entering their Week 14 matchup. However, because the Eagles won their previous meeting in Week 9 by a score of 28-23, a win this week still does not put the Cowboys totally in control of their destiny. A win would mean the Cowboys are top of the NFC East after Week 14 based on division record to this point, but the Eagles still control the future of the division.
The easiest scenario to play out with the Cowboys winning this week is that both teams finish 14-3 this season. That would leave them tied atop the NFC East and equal on head-to-head record at 1-1. They would also both have a 5-1 record within the division.
That brings us to the common game tiebreaker. The Eagles and Cowboys have 12 common games: New York Giants (twice), Washington Commanders (twice), Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, and Seattle Seahawks. As of right now, the Cowboys are 7-2 with three games to play, and the Eagles are 6-2 with four remaining.
In the scenario that both win out, they would also be tied at 10-2 when it comes to common games, meaning we would advance to the fourth tiebreaker of conference record. That is where the Eagles would prevail and take the NFC East. Currently, the Cowboys have three conference losses to one for the Eagles, which would go to two if the Cowboys win this week.
Ultimately what we are getting at here is that the Cowboys need the Eagles to drop at least one more game between now and the end of the season. That can be a tie or a loss, but if the Eagles win out from Weeks 15 to 18, the Cowboys cannot win the division. With a run of games that goes Seahawks, Giants, Cardinals, Giants, that is a hard thing to rely on.
Of course, this is the alternate way to look at it: If the Eagles win this week, they have virtually clinched the division. They would have a two-game lead and the head-to-head tiebreaker with four games to play. At that point, Dallas would need the Eagles to fail to win three more games than the Cowboys fail to win for the Cowboys to have a shot at the NFC East.
What Are the Playoff Chances for the Cowboys and Eagles?
The good news for the Cowboys is that even if they don’t win the division, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has them with a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs.
The Eagles haven’t clinched yet after their loss last week, but the FPI projections put them so close that even if you round to one decimal place, it still comes out to a 100.0% chance of making the playoffs. In reality, it is more like 99.99%, but in all but official confirmation, they are in.
In terms of the division, FPI simplifies everything we laid out above. Entering Week 14, the Eagles have an 82.1% chance of winning the division, compared to 18% for the Cowboys. Even ahead of a game where the Cowboys are favored, they have a less than one in five chance of winning the division, according to FPI simulations.
Can the Eagles or Cowboys Clinch the NFC Top Seed This Season?
The Eagles are still in the box seat for the number one seed in the NFC entering Week 14. However, that loss to the 49ers has left it hanging by a thread. With two losses, the Eagles know if they win out, they will have the bye through the Wild Card round and the home-field advantage throughout. A loss this week to the Cowboys could flip that completely on its head.
With the Eagles losing to the 49ers, San Francisco now has the all-important head-to-head tiebreaker. Therefore, if the Eagles lose one game, they lose control of the number one seed to the 49ers.
Even if the Eagles, 49ers, and Lions all finished on the same record, the 49ers would still prevail based on a combination of superior conference record and head-to-head tiebreakers.
The story is similar even if the Cowboys win the NFC East. They would still need the 49ers to lose again. Dallas lost to the 49ers earlier in the season and has a worse conference record in the case of any three-team tiebreakers. If Dallas wins this week, the NFC needs the 49ers to lose at least once in the final four weeks to have any control.
The Lions are a fun wild card to all of this. If the Lions and Eagles end up tied atop the NFC in terms of win percentage, common games, strength of victory, and potentially strength of schedule could all come into play when determining the NFC’s number one seed.
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