Thursday Night Football has produced a string of highly impactful games over the past few weeks, and Week 11 was no different.
The Philadelphia Eagles maintained control of first place in the NFC East, overcoming a sluggish first half and massive kicker struggles to take a 1.5-game lead over the Washington Commanders with a 26-18 win.
With the NFC East a clear two-team race, where do the Eagles’ and Commanders’ playoff chances stand after Week 11?
Philadelphia Eagles’ Playoff Chances After Week 11
Can the Eagles Make the Playoffs?
Following their Week 11 win, the Eagles are in first place in the NFC East and have a 97.6% chance of making the playoffs.
Here’s how likely Philadelphia is to land in each NFC playoff seeding slot, per PFN’s Playoff Predictor:
- No. 1 seed: 12.6%
- No. 2 seed: 46.4%
- No. 3 seed: 15.5%
- No. 4 seed: 0.6%
- No. 5 seed: 6.6%
- No. 6 seed: 10.3%
- No. 7 seed: 5.6%
Can the Eagles Win the NFC East?
Here’s what the NFC East race looks like after Week 11.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have a 75.1% chance to win the NFC East.
- The Washington Commanders have a 24.9% chance to win the NFC East.
- The Dallas Cowboys have a 0.0% chance to win the NFC East.
- The New York Giants have a 0.0% chance to win the NFC East.
Current NFC East Standings
- Philadelphia Eagles (8-2)
- Washington Commanders (7-4)
- Dallas Cowboys (3-6)
- New York Giants (2-8)
Eagles’ Super Bowl Chances After Week 11
Can the Eagles win the Super Bowl? The PFN Playoff Predictor projects that Philadelphia has a 4.9% chance of bringing home their second Lombardi.
Eagles’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 12: at Los Angeles Rams
- Week 13: at Baltimore Ravens
- Week 14: vs. Carolina Panthers
- Week 15: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Week 16: at Washington Commanders
- Week 17: vs. Dallas Cowboys
- Week 18: vs. New York Giants
Washington Commanders’ Playoff Chances After Week 11
Can the Commanders Make the Playoffs?
After their Week 11 loss, the Commanders have a 24.9% chance of winning the NFC East.
Here’s how likely Washington is to land in each NFC playoff seeding slot, per PFN’s Playoff Predictor:
- No. 1 seed: 1.6%
- No. 2 seed: 14.8%
- No. 3 seed: 8.1%
- No. 4 seed: 0.4%
- No. 5 seed: 7.0%
- No. 6 seed: 19.2%
- No. 7 seed: 23.9%
Can the Commanders Win the NFC East?
Here’s what the NFC East race looks like after Week 11.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have a 75.1% chance to win the NFC East.
- The Washington Commanders have a 24.9% chance to win the NFC East.
- The Dallas Cowboys have a 0.1% chance to win the NFC East.
- The New York Giants have a 0.0% chance to win the NFC East.
Current NFC East Standings
- Philadelphia Eagles (8-2)
- Washington Commanders (7-4)
- Dallas Cowboys (3-6)
- New York Giants (2-8)
Commanders’ Super Bowl Chances After Week 11
Can the Commanders win the Super Bowl? The PFN Playoff Predictor projects that Washington has a 2.3% chance of securing its first Super Bowl title since 1991.
Commanders’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 12: vs. Dallas Cowboys
- Week 13: vs. Tennessee Titans
- Week 14: BYE
- Week 15: at New Orleans Saints
- Week 16: vs. Philadelphia Eagles
- Week 17: vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Week 18: at Dallas Cowboys
Commanders vs. Eagles Week 11 Recap
The Eagles played one of their worst offensive halves of the season in the first half, scoring only three points. A pair of missed field goals from Jake Elliott (who later missed an extra point) didn’t help. However, Philly totally turned around its performance in the fourth quarter, scoring three straight touchdowns to close it out.
Eagles’ offense vs. Commanders, Week 11:
- First three quarters: Six points, 5.0 yards per play, and -0.04 EPA per play
- Fourth quarter: 20 points, 11.1 yards per play, and 1.12 EPA per play
Per usual, the Eagles’ offensive resurgence largely came on the back of Saquon Barkley. The superstar running back accounted for 198 scrimmage yards and touchdowns from 23 and 39 yards out.
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Reply that you love Saquon Barkley.@saquon | #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/e4TKKo3rSN— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) November 15, 2024
As terrific as Derrick Henry has been for the Baltimore Ravens, Barkley has a very compelling argument as the most valuable non-quarterback this season. He’s accounted for 33.5% of the Eagles’ scrimmage yards this season, the highest of any player for any team this season.
Overall, Barkley is up to 1,347 scrimmage yards and 10 touchdowns this season. Since the 1970 merger, he’s the fifth player to record at least 1,300 scrimmage yards and 10 touchdowns in his first 10 games with a franchise, joining:
- 2016 Ezekiel Elliott (Dallas Cowboys)
- 2007 Adrian Peterson (Minnesota Vikings)
- 1983 Eric Dickerson (Los Angeles Rams)
- 1980 Billy Sims (Detroit Lions)
Meanwhile, the Eagles’ defense continued its ascension into one of the game’s top units. Jayden Daniels was held to -0.12 EPA per play, a season-low. In addition, his 73.4 grade in PFN’s QB+ metric was his second-worst of the season. Top receiver Terry McLaurin couldn’t even garner a target in the first half and finished with a season-low 10 yards on a single catch.
It’s an astounding turnaround for an Eagles squad that began the season 2-2, leading to calls for Nick Sirianni’s job. Six straight wins later, Philly looks like the strongest challenger to the Lions for home-field advantage in the NFC.
Washington remains in a strong position for a playoff berth, which is still a remarkable achievement considering where this franchise has been in recent seasons. It’s still a slight disappointment at the moment though, as two straight losses have dropped their odds to win the division from 78.6% two weeks ago to 26.5% after Thursday.