Entering Sunday of Week 17, there were still three teams in the mix for the top seed in the NFC playoffs. The Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles, and Minnesota Vikings have all reeled off long win streaks this season and have separated themselves from the rest of the competition.
Let’s break down the No. 1 seed paths for the teams hunting for the top seed.
What Is the Current NFC No. 1 Seed Playoff Picture?
Currently, the Lions (14-2) hold the No. 1 seed after defeating the 49ers. However, the Vikings have the same record heading into Week 18.
Next Sunday night, the Lions and Vikings will face off for the division and conference.
What Was the Detroit Lions’ Path to the No. 1 Seed?
The Lions had the most straightforward path: Win their final two games, and they’d have home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.
Any tie with the Vikings would earn the Lions the division. The reasoning for that:
- If the Lions match or pass the Vikings by record with a Week 18 win, they’ll win the head-to-head tiebreaker (beat Minnesota in Week 7 as well).
- If the Lions and Vikings each finish 14-3 with Minnesota winning the Week 18 rematch, the Lions would win on the division-record tiebreaker (5-1 vs. 4-2).
- If the Lions and Vikings each finish 13-3-1 by tying the Week 18 rematch, the Lions would win on the division-record tiebreaker (5-0-1 vs. 3-2-1).
If the Lions win the NFC North, they’d win any tie with the Eagles because they are guaranteed to finish with a better conference record if the teams have the same final record.
The Lions are 9-1 in conference games, compared to 8-3 for the Eagles. Both teams play only conference opponents in their final three games, so the Eagles cannot match the Lions in conference record without passing Detroit in overall record (which would obviously render the tiebreaker moot).
What Was the Minnesota Vikings’ Path to the No. 1 Seed?
Minnesota controled its own destiny for the NFC North title. If the Vikings win vs. Detroit in Week 18, they’ll finish a game ahead of the Lions. Minnesota’s only path to the NFC North title is by finishing with a better record than Detroit.
VIKINGS VS. LIONS.
WEEK 18.
WINNER GETS THE #1 SEED AND NFC NORTH TITLE. pic.twitter.com/lVRDh40U4M
— NFL (@NFL) December 30, 2024
Ultimately, the No. 1 seed is to be decided in Week 18 when the Vikings and Lions meet in the last week of the regular season.
To simulate all the different scenarios, head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to see how they change the playoff picture and the NFL postseason bracket.