In the seven-team NFL playoff format, only the No. 1 seed gets a first-round bye. In Week 14, the NFC’s home-field advantage race is a three-team competition.
The 12-1 Detroit Lions are in the clear pole position, as they’ve won 11 straight games. However, the 10-2 Philadelphia Eagles are streaking themselves, while the 10-2 Minnesota Vikings remain close behind. Let’s examine how each of these teams can secure the No. 1 seed using PFN’s Playoff Predictor.
Updated NFC Clinching Scenario Results | Week 14
Thursday Night Football Results
- Detroit Lions (12-1) def. Green Bay Packers (9-4)
Sundays Early Slate Results
- Philadelphia Eagles (11-2) def. Carolina Panthers (3-10)
- Minnesota Vikings (11-2) def. Atlanta Falcons (6-7)
According to PFN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, after the Week 14 slate, the Lions currently have a 58.1% chance to win the NFC, the Eagles sit at 20.8%, and the Vikings at 18.8%. These numbers will update as games are finished throughout the week.
Below, you can see the playoff scenarios heading into Week 14.
How Can the Detroit Lions Clinch the No. 1 Seed?
After defeating the Green Bay Packers on Thursday Night Football in Week 14, the Lions remain the favorites to earn the No. 1 seed. PFN’s model gives them a 58% chance of securing home-field advantage.
With their 11th straight win, the Lions are now on their longest winning streak in franchise history. According to PFN’s Offense+ and Defense+ metrics, the Lions have the NFL’s best offense and second-best defense.
It’s worth noting that Detroit has the third-hardest remaining schedule, so there’s an opportunity for teams like the Eagles and Vikings if Detroit stumbles.
A rematch against the Bears in Week 16 is their only remaining game against a team out of playoff contention, and they still have a rematch with the Vikings on tap (albeit at home), plus a matchup against the 10-2 Buffalo Bills.
Still, the Lions control their own destiny, as the No. 1 seed belongs to them if they win out.
How Can the Philadelphia Eagles Clinch the No. 1 Seed?
The Lions aren’t the only NFC team on a long winning streak. After an uneven 2-2 start that had many speculating about Nick Sirianni’s job security, the Eagles have ripped off eight straight wins to seize control of the NFC East.
Saquon Barkley has joined the MVP conversation with a historic start to his Eagles tenure. Barkley leads the NFL with 1,766 scrimmage yards, and his 13 touchdowns trail only Derrick Henry among skill-position players.
The transformation on the other side of the ball has been just as important. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has revived a defense that totally collapsed in the second half of the 2023 campaign.
MORE: Simulate the Rest of the NFL Season With PFN’s Playoff Predictor
After a big win over the Baltimore Ravens last week, Philadelphia now has a 26.5% chance of landing the NFC’s top seed.
The Eagles do have a big schedule advantage over the Lions, as they have the seventh-easiest remaining schedule in the league (vs. CAR, vs. PIT, at WAS, vs. DAL, and vs. NYG).
How Can the Minnesota Vikings Clinch the No. 1 Seed?
The Vikings were the last undefeated team in the NFC, but they have since fallen behind the red-hot Lions.
Still, Minnesota remains firmly in the race for the top seed with its own five-game winning streak (their second of the season).
After their comeback win over the Arizona Cardinals in Week 13, the Vikings have an 18.2% chance to land the No. 1 seed.
The Vikings’ first loss came at the hands of Detroit in Week 7, and they’ll almost certainly have to win the rematch at Ford Field to have any chance of usurping the Lions.
Even if the Vikings win the rematch against Detroit, Minnesota has an uphill battle. The Vikings have the fifth-hardest remaining strength of schedule, as the Bears are the only sub-.500 team left on their schedule.
