In an early-season rematch, this New York Jets vs. New England Patriots matchup will give us a good indication of the progression that these two teams have made. Can the Jets and Zach Wilson exact revenge for the defeat earlier in the season, or will Mac Jones and the Patriots go 2-0 over their rivals?
New York Jets offense vs. New England Patriots defense
After the Jets’ offense struggled in Week 2 against the Patriots, can their offense have more success this time around? Can Wilson end his interception streak and find the kind of success he saw against the Titans in Week 4?
Zach Wilson vs. Patriots defense
It has been a tough start to the 2021 NFL season for Wilson. He leads the league in interceptions through five games with 9, throwing just 4 touchdowns along the way. His 57.3% completion rate is only better than fellow rookie Justin Fields. The problem is that Wilson is not even being that aggressive. His 6.5 yards per attempt is tied for the fifth-lowest.
Wilson has been one of the least valuable QBs within his environment this season, according to Pro Football Network’s Offensive Value Metric. Additionally, his completion rate is 7.3% below his expected completion rate, according to Next Gen Stats. That is by far the worst differential among qualified QBs.
[bet-promo id=”174860″ ]The positive for Wilson is that the Patriots’ defense has not been great this year. Over the past three weeks, they have allowed an average of 333 passing yards per game, including 445 passing yards to the Dallas Cowboys. That is a huge increase from the first three weeks, where they averaged 159.7 passing yards per game.
These numbers should suggest Wilson has the opportunity to improve this week against the Patriots. If he does not, then serious alarm bells need to start ringing. For now, the experience of New England’s defense has a slight edge, especially with Bill Belichick coaching them. However, based on the last couple of weeks, this could be an area the Jets hope to flip to their side during the game.
Advantage: Patriots
Jets skill players vs. Patriots secondary
The Jets will have more weapons at their disposal in this matchup than they did in Week 2. Jamison Crowder was not on the field for the Jets that week, but he’s played a significant role since his return in Week 4. Crowder has seen 15 targets, pulling in 11 for 85 yards, a touchdown, and a 2-point conversion.
While those numbers may not seem all that groundbreaking, it is merely Crowder’s presence that improves this pass-catching unit significantly. With Crowder, the Jets can use varying combinations of him, Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, Keelan Cole, Denzel Mims, and Braxton Berrios. The potential personnel groupings force the defense to make tough choices about who to cover with which defender.
In Week 2, the Patriots focused the majority of their attention on Davis, who was coming off a solid Week 1 performance. At least 2 of Wilson’s interceptions that day came when forcing the ball towards Davis. With Crowder on the field, it simply opens up more options for Davis on each snap.
For the most part, the Patriots’ secondary has posted solid numbers (a 62.3 % completion rate). However, we have seen several breakdowns occurring — both the Texans and Cowboys hit numerous big plays.
With the trading of Stephon Gilmore, they lack a top-end corner. J.C. Jackson is now the leader of this team, but he is better known as a ball hawk than a shutdown cornerback. So far in 2021, Jackson’s QB rating allowed is higher than in any other year of his career.
Advantage: Jets
Jets offensive line vs. Patriots defensive line
One area of weakness on this offense has been the Jets’ offensive line. Wilson’s sack rate is the second-highest in the league at 9.5%, and even if some of that is on Wilson himself, it still reflects poorly on the line as well. Combine that with Football Outsiders’ offensive line metrics having the Jets OL as the seventh-worst unit in terms of adjusted line yards? The whole picture is not pretty.
The outcome has been that the Jets’ running game has struggled. No running back has averaged more than 3.7 yards per carry this year, and the team as a whole ranks as the third-lowest at 3.6 yards per attempt.
The solace for the Jets is that in this matchup vs. the Patriots, the opposing defensive line is nothing special. The Patriots are very much an average defensive line both across the running and passing game. Football Outsiders’ defensive line metrics rank them 20th overall as a unit.
However, when it comes to rushing the passer, there are clear concerns. The defense ranks as the fifth-worst in terms of pressure rate (21.4%) and seventh-worst in QB knockdown rate (6.9%). Therefore, it’s somewhat remarkable that the Patriots rank in the middle of the pack with a 6% sack rate. They are making the most of what relatively little pressure they get and making sure it really counts when they hit the QB.
Advantage: Patriots (marginally)
New England Patriots offense vs. New York Jets defense
The 2021 season has been interesting for New England’s offense. Throwing the ball, the Patriots have been reasonably consistent. Nonetheless, the huge step up in the run game over the past two weeks adds an intriguing second element.
Mac Jones vs. Jets defense
Jones has not posted flashy numbers this season, but he is not falling into the pitfalls of the other rookies. When we look at the OVM data from the first six weeks, he is providing above-average value to his environment.
Jones is completing over 70% of his passes and throwing for nearly 250 yards per game. Nothing spectacular, but a major step up from other first-round rookies this year. He has led the Patriots’ passing game to be slightly below average across the board. Their 6.3 net passing yards per attempt ranks 23rd, while his 7 touchdowns rank 22nd.
What Jones gets this week is a tough-to-read matchup with the Jets. Over the course of the year, the Jets have been an average defense against the pass. They rank 13th overall in net passing yards per attempt. Furthermore, they have allowed just 4 passing touchdowns all season.
In their last matchup against the Falcons in London, New York’s defense looked at sea at times against Matt Ryan and the Falcons. Ryan actually scored 2 of those 4 touchdowns, demonstrating this unit can be susceptible against the pass.
Advantage: Push
Patriots skill players vs. Jets secondary
Judging the Patriots’ skill-position players is a tough thing to do. Jakobi Meyers leads the group in targets with 52, and then it is a mixture of Nelson Agholor, Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, and Kendrick Bourne behind him. None of them have excelled for the Patriots this season, and it has blunted the offense.
The matchup for the Patriots’ receivers against this secondary is a somewhat friendly one. They are allowing the sixth-highest completion rate of 69.2%, but the numbers they are giving up are not significant in terms of passing yards.
Their 249.4 passing yards allowed per game ranks is almost exactly the average for the league. Meanwhile, the 4 passing touchdowns and the 2.2% passing touchdown rate allowed are the lowest of any defense in the NFL in 2021. Therefore, while the Jets are allowing a high percentage of completions, they are generally low-value ones that are not hurting the team by giving up big chunk plays or scores.
Advantage: Jets
Patriots offensive line vs. Jets defensive line
The Patriots’ offensive line has been a major sticking point this year, especially in the run game. According to Football Outsiders, their offensive line is one of the worst in the league in terms of adjusted line yards.
A prime emphasis of this was when the Patriots rushed for 48 yards in Weeks 3 and 4 combined. They have picked that up in the last two weeks, averaging 123 yards per game on the ground and generally looking more comfortable running the ball.
In terms of pass protection, they have been largely an average unit but have given up big plays that have been costly at key junctures. That lack of consistency is a concern for this unit in front of a rookie QB. If Jones cannot trust that the group in front of him will hold up, he may start staring down the pass rush instead of focusing on his reads.
New York’s defensive line is a marginally above-average unit across the whole picture. In the run game, they are pretty much an average group. However, they have had good moments rushing the passer. Their 6.6% sack percentage has them tied for ninth, while they are a top-six unit in terms of pressure rate.
The Patriots have built their franchise on a strong offensive line, but quite simply, they do not have that right now. The Jets’ pass rush has a fantastic opportunity to cause havoc for Mac Jones in this matchup vs. the Patriots’ offensive line.
Advantage: Jets
Betting line and game prediction
The Patriots are 6.5-point favorites entering this game. After the Week 2 matchup, it makes a lot of sense. The Belichick-against-rookie-QBs narrative is well-established and applies here. However, we have seen the Patriots’ defense struggling in recent weeks, with Davis Mills able to make big plays against them.
New England should win the game, but whether they can cover a 6.5-point spread vs. New York is different. There is also the overtime element to consider, as the Patriots are coming off a tough loss, and the Jets are coming off a bye week.
The concern for the Patriots covering the touchdown-or-more spread is their red-zone conversion rate. That sits at just 44.4%, which ranks as the third-worst. They have scored just 8 touchdowns on 18 red-zone trips. In the Jets, they are facing one of the best defenses at preventing red-zone touchdowns.
The same applies to some extent in the other direction. Yet, when looking at the spread, that element makes it tough to see the Patriots prevailing by a touchdown or more vs. the Jets.
Prediction: Patriots 20, Jets 17