It’s December again. Which means either the New York Jets or Miami Dolphins are playing out the string after another failed season — again.
In this year’s case, it’ll apply to both if the Jets can pull off the upset over Mike McDaniel’s host Dolphins in Week 14.
The Jets (3-9) can either officially eliminate themselves or unofficially eliminate the Dolphins from playoff consideration when these teams get together for the 118th time Sunday.
The Dolphins (5-7) enter Sunday’s action with just a 21.8% chance of reaching the postseason, according to PFN’s Playoff Predictor.
New York Jets-Miami Dolphins Game Preview
Aaron Rodgers and Tua Tagovailoa have been in the same division for 19 months, but they just now are getting around to facing each other as AFC East foes.
It’s a function of how the schedule fell. Rodgers missed all but a handful of snaps of the 2023 season with a torn Achilles, and the NFL waited until Week 14 to get the Dolphins and Jets together for the first time in 2024.
But this isn’t the first time Rodgers and Tagovailoa have faced off. Rodgers, as a member of the Packers, visited Hard Rock Stadium in a frigid (for South Florida) Christmas Day game in 2022.
Rodgers outplayed Tagovailoa that day — but with a huge caveat. Tagovailoa suffered an undiagnosed concussion in the first half and threw three interceptions in the second.
Assuming he stays healthy this time around, Tagovailoa could go off against a Jets defense that looks like it will be without Sauce Gardner (hamstring). If so, expect to see lots of Isaiah Oliver, who has allowed 68% of the passes thrown in his coverage area to be completed.
As for a Rodgers vs. Tua comparison? It’s not kind to the future Hall of Famer at this point in his career. Tua is second in QB+ this season (95); Rodgers is 26th (69.6).
Hall Pass?
Running back Breece Hall’s availability for Sunday’s game was a big-time mystery this week after he missed practice both Wednesday and Thursday.
Hall has been dealing with a knee injury the last two weeks, and his participation rate in the Jets’ Week 13 loss to the Seattle Seahawks (62%) was noticeably below his season average (75.7%).
So even if he does play Sunday against the Dolphins, it’s fair to expect a bigger bite at the apple for backup Braelon Allen.
That’s not necessarily a terrible thing for the Jets.
Yes, Hall this year has averaged more than a half-yard more per carry than Allen (4.2-3.6), but that might be as much a function of their surroundings as any personal shortcoming. The rookie fourth-round pick has been better than his topline numbers.
Both Hall and Allen have averaged 2.2 yards after contact this season, suggesting that blocking is the reason for the disparity. What’s more, Allen’s success rate is actually higher (49.3%-46.3%).
Expect Allen to test a Dolphins defense that missed nearly two dozen tackles in Week 13 but still ranks ninth in rush EPA (-.119).
Of course, it should be said that Hall has special upside. But if contract negotiations over the next 15 months with Hall are choppy, whoever is running the Jets in 2025 and beyond can take solace knowing that they have a tenable Plan B at running back.
Chopping the Wall?
The entire Dolphins’ defense pass rush vanished in their Week 13 loss to the Packers, but no one was more disappointing than rookie Chop Robinson — particularly after what he did the week before.
Robinson had zero tackles, zero sacks, and zero quarterback hits in 15 pass-rush snaps. The Packers had a plan to neutralize the Dolphins’ best healthy edge defender and executed it to perfection.
They ran it for 12 of the 30 plays he was on the field and did an excellent job blocking him when they passed. His one pressure was the fewest since Week 4, and his pressure rate (6.7%) was the lowest of his young career.
That dip came a week after he looked like an All-Pro in the Dolphins’ blowout win over the Patriots. He got pressure on 38.5% of his pass-rush reps that week.
It’s entirely possible that Robinson bounces back against a Jets offensive line that has the league’s eight-worst pass-block win rate (56%),
But if not, it’s important to remember that Sunday will be the 13th game of his season — which is the most he played in college.
Want more Dolphins-Jets stats? Here are seven important ones, courtesy of TruMedia.
Seven Jets-Dolphins Stats From TruMedia
- Should Miami just bank on Tagovailoa from the jump? For the season, he’s completing 76.3% of first-down passes, a rate that sits at 84.8% over the past two weeks (28/33).
- The Jets have not intercepted a pass since Week 5 (Sam Darnold).
- Remember the version of Aaron Rodgers that was in scoring position the second he stepped on the field? It’s long gone. Halloween was the last time he had a 30-yard completion.
- New York picked up 56.8% of its third downs through two weeks, a rate that sits at just 34.2% since.
- Garrett Wilson has been held at least 50% under his PPR expectation, given where his targets occurred in consecutive games (his two worst performances of the season).
- The Dolphins blitzed on one-quarter of Packer dropbacks last week and failed to record a single sack. They’ve called a blitz at least that often in six games this season and have failed to get home in four of those games.
- The Jets have covered just two of their past eight road games in the division, while the Dolphins have covered 13 of their past 17 divisional games.
Jets vs. Dolphins Predictions
- Mike Wobschall (70% on the season): Dolphins
- Kyle Soppe (67%): Dolphins
- Anthony DiBona (66%): Dolphins
- Dallas Robinson (64.4%): Dolphins
- Adam Beasley (63.9%): Dolphins
- David Bearman (62.3%): Dolphins
- Dan Tomaro (58.8%): Dolphins
- Dakota Randall (58.2%): Dolphins
PFN’s complete NFL Week 14 expert picks are available here.