The New York Jets and Los Angeles Chargers battle to remain relevant in the AFC playoff picture on Monday Night Football. What are a few stats and matchups to look for during the game? After an exciting Week 9 slate, can the final game of the week end on a high note?
New York Jets vs. Los Angeles Chargers Predictions
The Jets come into Monday Night Football with more impressive wins and a better record, but three of the five selection committee members chose the Chargers to win.
But why might that be?
Some of the stats and matchups might answer that question. But it could also be simpler. The millennial generation (and Bearman) sided with offense over defense, while those with decades of experience in the industry leaned toward defense with their selection.
- Beasley: Jets
- Bearman: Chargers
- Miller: Chargers
- Morrison: Jets
- Robinson: Chargers
Chargers Rushing Woes vs. Jets Run Defense Dominance
According to Inside Edge, the Chargers have been “successful” on just 39.3% of their rushing attempts dating back to the beginning of 2022. That is the fifth-worst rate in the NFL over that time. It’s a massive reason why they chose not to run often under Joe Lombardi.
Even with a historically good performance against the Dolphins in Week 1, the Chargers rank 23rd in rushing EPA in 2023 and are 30th in rushing success rate.
Meanwhile, the Jets have allowed successful runs at a 38.7% rate, which is the second-best mark in the league. Los Angeles may be running their heads into a brick wall if they try establishing the run against New York.
MORE: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings
The Jets haven’t been as analytically clean as in 2022, but they still rank inside of the top 10 in both rushing EPA and success rate on defense.
Justin Herbert needs to have a great day against a talented secondary if the Chargers’ offense wants to score points. Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed, and Michael Carter II are a fantastic cornerback trio, plus the Jets are incredibly well-coached on the back end.
Jets Pass Protection vs. Chargers Pass Rush
L.A.’s defense is 27th in EPA and 29th in success rate. But with professional pass rushers like Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, and Tuli Tuipulotu in the rotation, things could get ugly for a group of pass protectors who struggle and a quarterback who struggles to consistently deliver timely passes.
Zach Wilson takes a sack on 9.5% of his dropbacks. Additionally, he struggles under pressure, which is partially why he is last in adjusted EPA and success rate among qualifying QBs.
The Chargers’ secondary has its sore spots, but if they can consistently create pressure against Wilson, we won’t see a productive game from him like we saw against the Chiefs.
Quinnen Williams vs. Chargers Interior
Zion Johnson, Will Clapp, and Jamaree Salyer haven’t been responsible for a sack since Week 4. Part of that is due to the offensive line playing relatively well, and another is because even when they do allow pressures, Herbert is a pro at getting rid of the ball before taking sacks.
However, Quinnen Williams is one of the best interior rushers in the NFL. After not posting a single pressure against the Giants’ underwhelming interior and having zero sacks on the season, something has to give.
Williams has 25 pressures through seven games, and it feels like any day he’ll explode for a multi-week stretch. He’s talented enough to completely wreck a game on his own. Given that the Chargers’ interior has been so impressive and Williams relatively underwhelming in 2023, this could be a regression game for both sides of the coin.
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