Heading into Week 17, the New York Jets playoff scenarios are fairly simple, and their role in it all is clear. The Jets go into the final two games of their 2022 NFL schedule knowing that anything less than two victories will leave them watching the postseason. Let’s take a look at the scenarios that need to play out for them to make the playoffs and the Jets’ chances of still playing on the third weekend of January.
4:00 PM ET Update
The New England Patriots defeated the Miami Dolphins.
7:00 PM ET Update
The New York Jets lost to the Seattle Seahawks. The Jets have been eliminated from the playoffs.
Jets Playoff Scenarios To Watch for in Week 17
The way the NFL standings have shaped up so far has made the first part of the Jets’ scenarios simple. They need to win in both Week 17 and Week 18 to have even a slight chance of going to the postseason. Two victories would take the Jets to 9-8 and mean they are relying on one other result to go their way.
For the Jets to make the playoffs, they need their division rivals, the New England Patriots, to fail to win one of their remaining two games. Whether the Patriots lose or tie one of the two games with the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills is not important as long as they do not win them both. That is because New England went 2–0 against the Jets this season and has the head-to-head playoff tiebreaker.
If the Jets get to nine wins, they will eliminate the Dolphins along the way and make sure that no other AFC contender can get past them for the seventh seed. Two other teams can get to nine wins, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Jacksonville Jaguars. However, the Jets defeated the Steelers back in Week 4, giving them the head-to-head tiebreaker, and if the Jaguars get to nine wins, they win the AFC South.
What Are the Jets’ Playoff Chances?
Heading into Sunday of Week 17, the Jets’ playoff chances stand at 15%, per FiveThirtyEight. By the time the game kicks off at 4:05 p.m. ET, things will look a little different. With the Patriots and Dolphins playing in the 1 p.m. ET window, the picture will be cleared.
If the Patriots lose, the Jets have their future completely in their hands. If the Patriots win, it changes nothing for the Jets in terms of what they have to do, but it keeps the seventh seed in the Patriots’ hands.
Strangely, that does not have a huge impact on the Jets’ playoff chances. If they win and the Patriots win, their chances are 35%. If they win and the Dolphins win, their chances are 37%. However, if the Jets win and the Patriots and Dolphins tie, their chances rise to 40%.
Realistically, those small changes in the odds reflect a small shift in the scenarios. The Jets still need to win, but if the Patriots lose, then at least they do not have to worry about what is happening in Buffalo in Week 18.