The New York Jets enter their Black Friday game with the Miami Dolphins with Gang Green’s playoff hopes hanging by a thread. Entering Week 12 at 4-6, the Jets cannot be formally eliminated from the playoffs for a couple more weeks, but there isn’t much room left for error.
With the help of PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor, let’s look at what needs to happen for the Jets to finish the season with a postseason spot in 2023.
What Are the New York Jets’ Playoff Chances in 2023?
According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Jets have a 1.3% chance of making the playoffs in 2023. As things stand on the morning of Black Friday, the Jets are 14th in the AFC and two games out of the final Wild Card spot.
As those odds tell you, the Jets have next to no margin for error over the next seven weeks. They already have to be at least two games better in that stretch than the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers to even force an NFL playoff tiebreaker scenario — let alone also needing to catch up a game on four other teams.
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The other problem for the Jets is that two of the teams that have the same number of losses as them (the Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders) have already defeated them this season. That means the Jets likely have to finish at least one win above each of those teams to be seeded ahead of them.
The Jets do still have games against current playoff teams in the Miami Dolphins, Texans, and Cleveland Browns in which they can have a direct impact on seeding and get themselves on the right side of some tiebreakers. However, without sweeping those three teams and probably picking up at least another two wins to finish 10-7, it’s hard to see how the Jets can make the playoffs from here.
New York also has a rotten conference record at 2-5. Of the teams above them, only the Cincinnati Bengals have lost five games within the conference so far this year. Only two other teams, the Raiders and Denver Broncos, are even at four conference losses this season. A lot can change on that front, but the best the Jets can do is get to a 7-5 conference record.
Even going 7-0 from here isn’t a guarantee of a playoff spot at this point. The positive is that outside of the Dolphins, there are plenty of very winnable games left.
The Atlanta Falcons are a bit of a mess, the Texans blow hot and cold, the Washington Commanders field a turnover machine, the Browns have questions at QB, and the New England Patriots may or may not be tanking. It’s not out of the question that New York can win all five of those games, and then if they can steal one from the Dolphins, 10-7 at least gives them a chance.
Can the Jets Win the AFC East This Season?
If the Jets’ chances of making the playoffs are slim, their odds of winning the division are downright remote. ESPN’s FPI places the team’s current odds of doing so at just 0.3%. For them to have any real chance, the turnaround has to start on Black Friday.
Entering a Week 12 game with the Dolphins, the Jets are 4-6, and the Dolphins are 7-3. That’s a three-game swing that the Jets have to make, further complicated by the Buffalo Bills at 6-5 being in contention.
The reasons the Jets need to win on Black Friday are that a loss would make the gap four games, ensure the head-to-head tiebreaker would be split, and guarantee that the Jets would be able to, at best, match the Dolphins on division record at 3-3. New York would need Miami to lose at least four games, including their second matchup with the Bills, and the Jets would need to get help elsewhere from common opponents.
New York has already lost six games to common opponents of Miami. The Dolphins so far have lost to three of those common opponents. Miami would need to lose three games to their remaining common opponents with the Jets to even have that tiebreaker be equal.
Oh, and none of this takes into account the Bills also have at least a one-game advantage over the Jets entering Week 12. A loss on Black Friday all but ends the Jets’ hopes of winning the division. While it may still mathematically be possible, it will be a next-to-untenable path.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!