The New York Jets surprised the NFL world when they fired head coach Robert Saleh Tuesday morning after their loss to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 5. Despite the loss, which dropped them to 2-3, the Jets are second in the AFC East and eighth in the AFC playoff picture. New York could be atop the AFC East this time next week, as they face the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football.
Some reports indicate that Woody Johnson and the Jets have made this move now to capitalize on the NFL’s crazy start to the season. With nine teams currently sitting at 3-2, 2-2, or 2-3, the AFC playoff picture is wide open, and the Jets’ playoff chances in 2024 remain very much alive.
Based on what we have seen in the last three years, a team that is 2-3 would have a 38% chance of making the playoffs. That data is based on the 17-game schedule and seven playoff teams in each conference structure. For context, a team that is 3-2 has made the playoffs 52% of the time, and teams that start 3-3 sit at 39%, while 2-4 teams have just a 26% playoff rate.
Those numbers suggest a pivotal spot for the Jets to make this call on Saleh. As things stand, recent data suggests they have a better than one-in-three chance of making the playoffs, while it would drop to one-in-four if they were to lose against the Bills on Monday Night Football.
Using the PFN NFL Playoff Predictor, we simulated the remainder of the season 10,000 times, and the Jets have a 46.2% chance of making the playoffs as things stand on the Tuesday after Week 5. Our simulations have the Jets winning the division 11.3% of the time and making it to the Divisional Round 17.9% of the time.
The tough part to account for in all of these numbers is the effect of the head coach. How much does firing Saleh boost or hurt their chances? Answering that question accurately would mean full transparency about the inner workings of the team and how decisions were made.
For example, was it Saleh’s call to run Braelon Allen up the middle on 4th-and-2 against the Vikings on Sunday rather than put the ball in Aaron Rodgers’ hands? At this stage, we do not necessarily know how calls like that were being made. Generally, fourth-down calls like that come from the head coach, but not always. It may have been Nathaniel Hackett making those calls, and if so, removing Saleh may not change that.
The Jets ranked dead last in the NFL in offensive EPA during Robert Saleh's tenure, per @TruMediaSports. 😬
The defense, on the other hand, ranked 7th in defensive EPA … pic.twitter.com/LOGWnDxh5a
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 8, 2024
What we do know is that the defense has transformed since Saleh arrived. Per TruMedia, in his first season as head coach, they posted a -0.11 EPA per play on defense. Over the last four seasons, that ranks 125th out of 128 teams. In 2022, that improved to 0.07 (30th), and in 2023 (0.14 EPA per play) and the first five weeks of 2024 (0.16 EPA per play), the Jets’ defense ranks eighth and seventh, respectively.
The offense is another story entirely. In Saleh’s first season, the offense posted a -0.07 EPA per play, which ranked 93rd out of 128 teams. That dropped to -0.25 in 2023, which is second-to-last across those four seasons. In 2024, the offensive EPA per play sits at -0.10, which is 107th out of 128.
Those numbers are why it is hard to determine if firing Saleh will make a major difference. He came in as a defensive-minded head coach, and the defense has lived up to the billing while the offense has struggled. The thought process here has to be that Saleh was stifling the offense’s creativity, whether that be through a defensive-minded approach to game planning or just being overly cautious in big spots.
The path to the Jets now making a serious playoff run is clear. Beat the Bills this week, and they will top the AFC East thanks to a superior head-to-head record and being unbeaten within the division through six weeks. If they can trade for Davante Adams and get the offense clicking, this could look like a masterstroke from Johnson and the Jets’ decision-makers.
