Sometimes, the stats do lie. Every single mathematical indicator last week suggested the Miami Dolphins would beat the Tennessee Titans, yet they lost — in crushing fashion.
Fast forward a week, and the story’s the same. The Dolphins have a massive statistical edge over the New York Jets. Will those fundamentals hold up? Or will we see yet another Dolphins disappointment?
New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins Game Preview
The betting public thinks the Dolphins will bounce back. As of Saturday morning, Miami was favored by nine points — which usually means a Dolphins win.
Mike McDaniel is 15-4 straight up when laying points since he joined the Dolphins in 2022.
One variable to watch is the weather. While the heavy rain that drenched the area this weekend should be gone by kickoff, it’ll be quite windy Sunday, which suggests more runs and fewer passes called.
Want more Jets-Dolphins stats? You got it — courtesy of Inside Edge.
Seven Jets-Dolphins Stats From Inside Edge
Stat: Jets running backs have averaged just 76.6 rushing yards per game since the 2022 season — fifth-worst in the NFL. The Dolphins have allowed an average of just 101.3 rushing yards per game since the 2022 season — fifth-best in the NFL.
Analysis: Despite all that went wrong for the Dolphins’ defense late Monday, the run defense showed up in a big way, limiting Derrick Henry to just 34 yards on 17 carries.
Stat: The Jets have run just 35.4% offensive plays on their opponent’s side of the field this season — worst in the NFL. The Dolphins have allowed their opponents to run just 39.5% of plays in their territory this season — tied for fourth-best in the NFL.
Analysis: Both teams bucked the trends in Week 14. The Jets put up 30 in the second half against the Houston Texans after managing just 51 in their previous 13 halves of football. And other than the final two drives, the Dolphins completely shut down the Titans.
Stat: Jets WRs have averaged just 2.5 yards after the catch since Week 11 — tied for second-worst in the NFL. The Dolphins have allowed just 2.5 yards after catch per reception to WRs since Week 11 — best in the NFL.
Analysis: YAC defense was a failure for the Dolphins late against the Titans, particularly on DeAndre Hopkins’ 36-yard catch-and-run that jump-started Tennessee’s game-winning drive.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
Stat: The Dolphins have gone three and out on 9.5% of their drives in the first half since Week 11 — third-best in the NFL. The Jets have forced three-and-outs on 12% of opponent drives in the first half since Week 11 — fifth-worst in the NFL.
Analysis: Among the many weird subplots in the Dolphins’ Week 14 loss was that they trailed at halftime for the first time since Week 9. This year, the Dolphins have a point differential of +51 in the first half.
Stat: The Dolphins are 6-1 (.857) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent this season — sixth-best in the NFL. The Jets have allowed an average time of possession of 32:03 this season — fifth-highest in the NFL.
Analysis: This stat will be doubly significant if it’s a wind game. An injury to watch? A toe issue kept running back De’Von Achane out of practice on Wednesday and Thursday.
Stat: The Jets have averaged just 265 yards from scrimmage per game since Week 11 — worst in the NFL. The Dolphins have allowed an average of just 297.5 yards from scrimmage per game (1,190 in four games) since Week 11 — fifth-best in the NFL.
Analysis: The big question for the Dolphins’ defense the rest of the way: Was Miami’s collapse on its final two defensive drives against the Titans an anomaly or a sign of things to come?
Stat: The Jets have a third-down conversion rate of just 12% in the first half since Week 11 — worst in the NFL. The Dolphins defense has allowed a third-down conversion rate of just 24% in the first half since Week 11 — fifth-best in the NFL.
Analysis: The Dolphins missed the chance to face Zach Wilson the first time these teams played. Not so in Week 15; Wilson not only reclaimed his starting job from Tim Boyle, but he lit up the Texans in Week 14 en route to AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors.
Jets vs. Dolphins Predictions
Adam Beasley: Dolphins
David Bearman: Dolphins
Dalton Miller: Dolphins
Jay Morrison: Dolphins
Dallas Robinson: Dolphins
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