Could this be a weirdly impactful game for fantasy football managers? I’m not ruling it out, and that means you have to be confident in how you evaluate it. The New York Jets‘ fantasy preview takes a look at which of their stars you can trust, while the Denver Broncos‘ fantasy outlook details the staying power of their passing game.
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New York Jets at Denver Broncos
- Spread: Broncos -2
- Total: 43
- Jets implied points: 20.5
- Broncos implied points: 22.5
Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson: In somewhat of a resurgence, Wilson has 300 passing yards or a 75% completion rate in all four games this season. Those numbers have allowed him to post a pair of top-10 weeks, though some context needs to be put alongside that production.
In Week 2, his high finish was supported by a six fantasy point Hail Mary at the buzzer. In Week 4, he played a bad Bears defense and was in an unlikely pass-friendly script. I’m not banking on any of those factors coming into play in this spot, and that is why Wilson isn’t getting higher than QB15 for me this week.
Running Backs
Breece Hall: We are one month into the season, and 60% of Hall’s rushing yards have come on two carries.
I’m not asking him to apologize for those big runs, but relying on such a play is a dangerous way for fantasy managers to make a living.
Fields to Kmet a second time
They've allowed points on 18 of 24 drives (17 touchdowns) https://t.co/lRtu7DjWU2
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) October 1, 2023
Due to the limitations of this offense, Hall has yet to exceed 13 touches in a game this season. In an offense that is rarely in scoring position, those touches can only hold so much value and will result in him being ranked outside of my top 25 consistently. That’s the case in this matchup, even given the recent struggles of Denver.
Dalvin Cook: Forget starting him, Cook doesn’t need to be rostered. He had 16 touches in the opening win over the Bills and has a total of 22 in the three weeks since. He was out-snapped by Michael Carter in Week 4 (18-15), and with scoring opportunities few and far between, Cook’s ceiling isn’t very appealing.
Javonte Williams: A hip injury ruled him out of last week’s win against the Bears, though it is not expected to be a long-term issue. If he plays, he will be a Flex option at best, understanding that he doesn’t have more than 65 yards or a touchdown in a game this season and would carry re-injury risk.
Editor’s Note: Williams is inactive for Week 5.
Jaleel McLaughlin: I believe that Williams is the most talented RB in this backfield, though the rookie did pile up 104 yards and a score on his 10 opportunities last week. He’s worth a roster spot no matter the status of Williams, if for no other reason than he has per-touch upside and plays behind a starter with some health red flags.
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He is playing ahead of Samaje Perine these days, and that makes him the preferred option should Williams sit, but we aren’t talking about a player you should be overly confident in starting. I mentioned my confidence in Williams from a talent standpoint, and he hasn’t been able to produce a top-25 week this season.
Wide Receivers
Garrett Wilson: We can all admit that Zack Wilson looked better last week than in the first three games, and that’s encouraging. It should be noted, however, that with his quarterback overachieving, Wilson turned 14 targets into just 10.5 fantasy points.
MORE: PFN Consensus Rankings
Wilson’s next top-20 finish this season will be his first, and he could well see a lot of Patrick Surtain II this week. I’m in no rush to bet on this offense yet, specifically against one of the game’s shutdown corners.
Allen Lazard: The former Packer is clearly the WR2 in this offense, and his WR14 finish in Week 4 was impressive, but let’s not get carried about. If it was Aaron Rodgers under center, I may be able to talk myself into Lazard being rosterable, but considering that last week was his first top-55 finish at the position this season, I’m not taking the bait.
Jerry Jeudy: Could this be a get-right spot if the Broncos are creative with their formations and don’t line him up across from Sauce Gardner on a consistent basis? It’s certainly possible when you consider that Wilson is playing at a decent level and that Jeudy caught seven balls for 96 yards in this matchup a season ago.
I have Jeudy projected to post his first top-32 finish of the season and am actually even a little more optimistic than that (WR25).
Courtland Sutton: While Jeudy hasn’t been a top-32 receiver once this season, Sutton, per the Week 5 Cheat Sheet, has done it three times as the healthier of the two options. I have the two ranked within the same low-end WR2 tier this week, though I will admit the fact that Sutton turned nine targets into just 23 yards against the Jets last season has me a bit worried.
Sutton owns a 71.4% catch rate this season, and if this connection with Wilson is here to stay, he’s going to rank as a top-25 option for me more often than not.
Marvin Mims: With a 38+ yard catch in three straight games, the upside of this rookie is no secret and becomes more valuable as we enter bye-week season. That said, if I’m throwing a dart on a big-play threat like this, I want him to be on the field consistently. That has yet to be the case for Mims (he and two other receivers all ran 7-12 routes in Week 4), adding risk to a profile that already includes significant downside.
He is gradually moving up in the hierarchy (catching Brandon Johnson in snaps is a nice step forward), and he will look to continue that growth on my bench this week.
Tight Ends
It’s a position that is required for your weekly fantasy lineup, but you need not look at this game. I don’t care how bleak your situation is — you can do better.
Should You Start Breece Hall or Rhamondre Stevenson?
If the unleashing of Hall that we’ve been tempted with this week is coming to fruition, this question won’t be close. That said, I understand that through a month, both of these AFC East RBs have been disappointing and bench-worthy.
There’s a path in which Hall improves from his rough start, something I’m not sure I can say about Stevenson. Hall could see more work, or Zach Wilson could show signs of growth. It could happen. Stevenson is failing in a reasonably voluminous role with an offense that has shown us no signs of potential (bottom-seven in both yards per pass and yards per rush this season).
Should You Start Courtland Sutton or Jakobi Meyers?
I can nit pick Sutton’s résumé up to this point, but the fact of the matter is that he has scored in three of four games and is trending closer and closer to Jeudy for WR1 honors in this offense.
I don’t think either quarterback involved in this question is consistent, so give me the QB who will take more shots and the receiver who has a reasonable path every week to lead his team in targets.