Strength of Schedule Breakdown
There are two ways to interpret the New York Giants’ strength of schedule in 2020 from the graph above. On the one hand, only six of their matchups are against teams that won more than eight games in 2019, as demonstrated by the blue bars above. Equally, however, they face just six teams that won less than eight games last season, with the remaining four matchups being against teams that won exactly eight games, including the Dallas Cowboys twice.
Turning the attention to the 2020 projected win totals, shown by the red bars on the graph above, we see just how tricky the New York Giants schedule could be, and why their 2020 win total is set low. Their schedule ranks in the top-five most difficult in the NFL based on their opponents 2020 projected win totals. The Giants will face 11 teams that are projected to win more than eight games in 2020. In contrast, just four of their opponents are projected to win less than eight games.
Key points of emphasis on the schedule
When you start looking at key points of emphasis on the Giants’ schedule, then things do not get any easier. They have just three advantageous moments on their 16 game schedule, and one of those is somewhat negated by the 49ers playing back-to-back games in New York, meaning they will most likely stay on the East Coast. When the 49ers did that in 2019, they defeated the Cincinnati Bengals 41-17 in the second game.
The first of their other two advantageous moments come when they face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 8 coming off their Thursday Night Football matchup with the Eagles. The second is when they face the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 12, after a bye in Week 11.
In contrast, they have five disadvantageous moments on their 2020 schedule, including back-to-back divisional games against teams coming off their bye week in Week 9 (Redskins) and 10 (Eagles). They also have to face the Cowboys in Week 5 and the Seahawks in Week 12, with both games serving as the second in back-to-back road games.
Their final disadvantageous point on the schedule comes as a Thursday Night Football match in Week 7 against the Philadelphia Eagles. Last year, rookie head coaches went just 1-3 in Thursday Night Football matchups. Additionally, the Eagles have not lost a matchup on a Thursday since losing to the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving in 2015. In that time, they have gone 5-0, with two victories over the Giants as well as beating the 13-3 Packers on the road last season. On top of that, the Giants are just 1-4 in the last five years on Thursday Night Football.
The situation is not helped for the Giants when you look at their other prime time games this season, either. Alongside their Thursday Night Football game against the Eagles, they face the Steelers on Monday Night Football in Week 1 and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football in Week 8. The Eagles record in prime time games in the last five years is woeful, with a win percentage of just 33.3%.
Suggested Bets
Current Win Total: 6 or 6.5
The New York Giants win total of just six makes it hard to bet the under with extreme confidence. If the Giants get hot for a couple of weeks or face teams with injury issues, they could reach six with some fortune. However, with that said, the Giants have not won more than six games in the last six years, and they have failed to even get to six in their last three seasons.
As discussed, above this schedule is extremely tough for the Giants, and therefore, it makes it hard to see them winning more than six games. Pro Football Network’s Cole Thompson projects the Giants to win just six games this season and finish third in the division. That number feels like the Giants’ ceiling, and it is what makes them such a good bet for the under in 2020.
Even if your sportsbook only offers a maximum line of six wins, the chances of the Giants going over six feels minimal. Having been through the schedule multiple times and analyzing the different game angles, it is extremely hard to find where the Giants can win seven games unless they take a huge jump in certain areas of their team in 2020. Therefore, I am going to be bullish on my under bet on the Giants win total and lay down three units on the under, which can be found at +100 with BetAmerica.
3u – New York Giants under 6 wins | +103
Ben Rolfe is a betting analyst at the Pro Football Network (@PFN365). Follow the betting group @PFNBets and Ben @benrolfe15