Calling all bettors! In a season of pleasant and unpleasant surprises, the New York Giants were squarely in the “pleasant” camp. Can this storied franchise claim its fifth Super Bowl title in 2024? More pressingly, how will free agency and the upcoming NFL draft impact their chances? The following betting odds are based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
New York Giants Super Bowl 58 Odds and Futures
Last February’s early odds for Super Bowl 57 offered clues on what sportsbooks were thinking and how that wove into the thinking of the broader betting market.
For example, the Kansas City Chiefs were the top favorite (+650 odds) of winning the Super Bowl, while the Buffalo Bills were second. Not too shabby as far as year-long predictions go.
But the Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers were Nos. 3 and 4, respectively — though, in fairness, Davante Adams’ status in Green Bay remained unclear at that point. The Tennessee Titans (No. 9) and Denver Broncos (No. 10) clearly underwhelmed, and the Philadelphia Eagles weren’t even in the top third.
Naturally, the Giants were near the bottom of the list. And when the season began, they remained near the bottom, stuck with the No. 24 “best” odds at +11800. Of course, we know what happened next, as a confluence of misfortune and fortune hit this team from all sides, resulting in one of the most unusual underdog NFL stories in years.
To accurately assess the Giants’ much-improved +4000 odds of winning Super Bowl 58, let’s dissect some key takeaways from their 2022 campaign.
Saquon Barkley, Daniel Jones, and Other 2022 Season Takeaways
While writing this piece, the Giants are in limbo with their two cornerstone offensive pieces. I’m betting they’ll sign Daniel Jones to a two- or three-year contract and let Saquon Barkley walk. But of course, anything is possible.
The basis of my reasoning concerns the statistical oddity of Jones and Barkley shining in the same season, with the top five presumed receivers from the previous offseason essentially out of the picture, and despite seven contests versus teams that were top eight in fewest points yielded — plus three of the four top run defenses.
Of course, both Jones and Barkley were playing for new contracts, and newly installed head coach Brian Daboll and his staff were ideal additions. Long kept under wraps on the ground, Jones was free to roam and rewarded his team with a 120-708-7 rushing line that consistently baffled opponents. He continued to cut down on turnovers while completing the highest percentage of passes in his career (67.2%).
Meanwhile, Barkley finally looked healthy after more than two seasons spent either on injured reserve or looking “not quite right” on the field. Still only 26 years old, he looks poised to operate as one of the league’s most versatile and productive bell cows.
MORE: Saquon Barkley Free Agency Predictions
An improved defense certainly helped, though an offense that sustained longer drives helped. The Giants were 11th in offensive time of possession last season — up from 27th the year before. As alluded to above, their turnover margin also improved. These two stats often go hand in hand.
Then there was the receiving corps. When the 2021 campaign ended, New York had Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, Kadarius Toney, and Evan Engram. That offseason, Engram moved to Jacksonville, whom the Giants replaced through the draft with Daniel Bellinger. Additionally, New York drafted WR Wan’Dale Robinson.
Their corps was relatively young and, seemingly, deep enough. They were even reportedly dangling Darius Slayton in trade talks.
But it wasn’t long before Shepard was out for the season. Then, they sent Toney to Kansas City, and Robinson was soon after knocked out for the year. Bellinger also missed five games. All the while, Golladay was persona non grata in front of a coaching staff that didn’t promise him anything that he didn’t earn.
Slayton ended up leading the Giants in targets and receiving yards. The preseason No. 6 WR they didn’t want anymore became Jones’ frequent No. 1 option. Isaiah Hodgins and Richie James rounded out this deeply underrated trio, with Hodgins catching an incredible 78.6% of his targets and James catching an even more incredible (and almost unprecedented) 81.4%.
By all rational accounts, the Giants exceeded even the loftiest expectations for a franchise poised to jettison Jones and/or Barkley after last season. Instead, both proved they were irreplaceable. And the rest of the team somehow followed their lead.
2023 Offseason Moves
Most people are very interested in seeing what this team does in the offseason — specifically with Jones and Barkley. I’ve gone on record with my opinion, and it has nothing to do with talent level.
Jones is an easy hold if the price is right. But Barkley probably wants (and deserves) something in the range of a four-year contract with tens of millions guaranteed.
MORE: New York Giants Offseason Preview 2023
If the Giants want to go all in on 2023, then they’ll probably keep both guys, and then deal with the consequences of a potentially injury-prone Barkley later. So their decision-making this offseason will speak volumes about whether they believe they can win now, or if they’re trying to reposition for a mammoth run in 2024 or 2025.
NFL Free Agency
March 7 Update: The Giants signed Jones to a four-year contract while using their franchise tag on Barkley. This should keep New York firmly in the 2023 playoff picture, at least for now.
March 14 Update: New York took the pick they secured sending Kadarius Toney to KC, and redirected it to the Raiders for Darren Waller. Personally, I’d rather have the 24-year-old Toney than the 30-year-old Waller (who’s turning 31 in September). I went on record last year warning fantasy managers about Waller’s higher-than-normal injury risks, and nothing’s changed since then. He’s a boom-bust addition for a team pushing for a title.
March 16 Update: The Giants snag Parris Campbell — a nothing-to-lose addition. When healthy, Campbell still has pop. Like Waller, durability remains a yellow flag. But this team can afford to take risks, and Campbell is a low-risk, solid-upside move.
In the coming weeks, we’ll update this section with breaking news on other key Giants arrivals and departures through free agency and trades, how it impacts their Super Bowl odds, and how it might inform our decision to bet on them to win it all.
NFL Draft
In early May, we’ll update this section on key Giants’ draft picks and UDFA signings, with an eye toward any players who could help catapult them to “solid long shot” status or better.