We end the week with a Monday night football matchup featuring two of the oldest franchises in the NFL. Russell Wilson is now behind center for the 5-2, AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers, while Daniel Jones tries to keep his job for the 2-5 New York Giants. Here are picks and predictions from Fantasy Analysts Kyle Soppe and Jason Katz and Chief Content Officer David Bearman.
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Oct. 25, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated.
Giants at Steelers (-6.5, 36) Odds and Betting Lines, 8:20 p.m. ET
Soppe: I don’t know about you, but I was very impressed with Wilson in his season debut. He gave George Pickens the chance to win down the field while operating an otherwise conservative offense (75.9% of his passes came in below his average depth of throw). With Najee Harris running hard, I think this Steelers offense actually has more upside than the numbers have shown up to this point.
Since 2019, teams favored by at least six points when the total closes under 38 points are 11-3 ATS (78.6%). Sportsbooks don’t generally miss when assigning big numbers like this in low-scoring games, and I don’t think they have here. Giants rookie WR Malik Nabers is a potential game-wrecker, but we saw this defense hold CeeDee Lamb to just 7.4 yards per target in Week 5; if they can replicate that success, I like our chances.
Pick: Steelers -6.5
This angle of George Pickens Touchdown…
🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥#NFL #Steelers pic.twitter.com/5W7YcLmMrN
— The Standard (@TheStandard412) October 24, 2024
Stats and Insights: Fantasy, Betting, and Other Notes
New York Giants
Team: The Giants haven’t won a Week 8 game in a decade (seven straight losses), but their last such win came in the state of Pennsylvania — the three-headed monster of Eli Manning, Peyton Hillis, and Victor Cruz led New York over Matt Barkley’s Philadelphia Eagles in 2013.
QB: Jones’ out-of-pocket completion rate sits at a career-low 44.4%, with just 16.7% of such attempts resulting in a first down.
Offense: The Giants have scored a touchdown on just 11.8% of their possessions this season (12.6% last season), putting them on pace for their worst showing since the 2003 team scored a touchdown on 11.2% of drives.
Defense: The Giants have intercepted just 0.5% of opposing passes this season, a rate that is better than only the Jacksonville Jaguars (0.4%).
Fantasy: Nabers didn’t produce for his fantasy managers in his return to action last week, and this is a tough matchup, but 72.8% of yards gained against the Steelers come through the air, the third-highest rate in the league).
Betting: New York has covered three straight long-rest games, and over tickets have come through for all three.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Team: The Steelers are starting drives, on average, on their 32.4-yard line, the fourth-best average starting field position in the NFL.
QB: Wilson averaged 0.23 EPA per dropback in his Steelers debut. Justin Fields has hit that mark just five times in 46 career games (his high-water mark in his six Steelers games was 0.17).
Offense: The Steelers have scored 32 and 37 points in the last two weeks after averaging 18.4 PPG over their first five weeks. Pittsburgh will try to score 30+ points in three straight games for the first time since 2015 (had a six-game streak from Weeks 9-15 that year).
Defense: The Steelers have yet to allow a point in the third quarter this season (outscoring teams 46-0). Pittsburgh is the only team that has not allowed a point in any quarter this season.
Fantasy: Wilson scored 24.9 fantasy points against the New York Jets on Sunday night — his most fantasy points scored in a game in 400 days and the most a QB has scored against the Jets in 1,388 days (Tom Brady, Week 17, 2021).
Betting: The Steelers have covered seven of their past eight long-rest spots (average cover margin: +4.5 points).