The New Orleans Saints will face the Cleveland Browns in Week 11. We have fantasy football start-sit advice for every fantasy-relevant player for the Saints so you can make the best decisions for your lineups.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 11 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Derek Carr, QB
Derek Carr posted his third top-10 finish of the season last week thanks to Marquez Valdes-Scantling making a few big plays against the Falcons. The performance was nice but not something that I’m at all labeling as sustainable with his primary options injured.
The Browns are the top pressure-rate team in the league this season (43.2% of dropbacks), and while Carr is averaging a career-high 7.7 yards per pressured attempt, I’m downgrading him in this matchup given the weapons currently at his disposal. MVS is fast, but can he work downfield faster than Cleveland can apply the heat?
I’m saying no, and that’s why Carr is no more than a low-end QB2 for me this weekend.
Alvin Kamara, RB
Alvin Kamara has three straight games with at least 50 receiving and 50 rushing yards, joining Christian McCaffrey as the only player with such a streak since 2017. The usage has been elite, and that’s not going to change with this team regularly losing skill-position players, though increased usage for Taysom Hill could result in a frustrating goal-line situation.
Don’t let the dropped 56-yard touchdown from last week concern you — he makes that play 99 times out of 100 and you should be encouraged about him being in a position to do so. The Browns allow a touchdown at the second-highest rate to running backs this season — there are a lot of ways for Kamara to pay off your trust and produce top-15 numbers for an eighth time this season.
Chris Olave, WR
Chris Olave (concussion) was inactive last week and might have well played his final snap of the season after being placed on IR. As of posting, we don’t know that to be 100% true, so you’ll want to hold tight in the short term, though you should be preparing for the worst.
The peaks and valleys are there within Olave’s profile, but with limited support under center, Olave’s stat lines look about as stable year over year as you could ask for.
- 2022: 0.8% over expectation (2.4 yards per route)
- 2023: 0.1% over expectation (2.1 yards per route)
- 2024: 2.2% over expectation (2.2 yards per route)
Olave was a late-second/early-third-round pick across the major platforms this summer. While I think his talent is deserving of such trust, having just 10 touchdown catches through three seasons, and the bad taste from this season, is likely to drop him 2-3 rounds (roughly where DJ Moore was drafted this year).
We are a long way away from having to make that decision, but if that estimation is accurate, I’ll be buying the dip.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR
It’s easy to connect the dots and say that Marquez Valdes-Scantling can be 85% of what Rashid Shaheed was for this offense after he turned three targets into 25.9 PPR points.
Be careful.
It should go without saying, but I’ll say it anyway: I’m listening more to six seasons of data than I am to the most recent 60 minutes. Up to 2024, MVS’ career has been spent with Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes, elite-level quarterback play that has seen him produce 5.5% under expectations. You’re either dismissing him as a fantasy starter due to a 92-game sample of struggles or buying into Derek Carr as the key to unlock consistency.
The matchup with Cleveland doesn’t bother me. In fact, I’m OK with labeling it as a reasonable spot (third-highest opponent average depth of throw through 10 weeks), and that is why I have Valdes-Scantling atop my Saints WR rankings, but that doesn’t land him in my top 40.
If you’re hoping for a single big play, I’ll take Mike Williams over MVS without a second thought.
Mason Tipton, WR
Update: In a surprise move, Tipton was announced as inactive ahead of the Saints game against the Cleveland Browns.
The thought process when targeting a receiver room that is in flux is sound, but I’d recommend doing it for either a player with more pedigree (Tipton: undrafted after four years at Yale) or in an offense with more upside (15 PPG over its past four games).
Saints WR snap shares, Week 10:
- Tipton: 55.8%
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 53.8%
- Kevin Austin Jr.: 48.1%
Without much separation, there’s not enough projectable volume to assign to any receiver in this offense. Tipton has run 54 routes over the past two weeks, which is 54 more than me — and yet, we are tied in receptions.
Way down the rankings, I’d rather hope for the best on a Devaughn Vele (DEN) or Ja’Lynn Polk type this week.
Taysom Hill, TE
Taysom Hill racked up 46 yards on five touches in the first quarter last week, highlighted by a 34-yard grab. And it could have been so much more.
The slot route rate is declining for Hill, but does that matter? You’re not considering Hill for his pass-catching prowess, you’re looking to exploit a unique role that has the potential to be a cheat code at a position that allows you to swallow more risk than others.
Taysom Hill had an 88-yard TD catch nullified on a hold yesterday lmao pic.twitter.com/W14lxhsJZ7
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 11, 2024
This pass-catching nucleus’s numerous injuries should open Hill up for more games like what we saw on Sunday. If you’re going to get 6-8 touches, you’re looking at a viable option.
Do I worry about the lack of scoring equity that comes with playing for this team? Of course, I do. I already bet the team total at under 22.5 points this week if you need proof of that. While I think that subtracts from Hill’s chances of producing a ceiling game, I’ll take my chances.
Juwan Johnson, TE
If the injuries in New Orleans have you flocking to this team for volume, I’d like you to reconsider. The Saints rank 27th in pass rate, and their traditional tight end hasn’t reached 50 receiving yards since New Year’s Eve.
The lack of volume is one thing, the lack of quality volume is another. Johnson hasn’t seen a red-zone or end-zone target since the first week of the season when this squad looked like the second coming of the Greatest Show on Turf.
I’m not starting anyone on this roster not named Alvin Kamara if I don’t have to, and even if I’m desperate, Johnson isn’t the tight end on this roster I’m buying stock in.
Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints Trends
Cleveland Browns
Team: The Browns have not played a single defensive snap with a lead in four of their past five games.
QB: Typically, quick pass rate and an average depth of throw are inversely correlated; as one goes up, the other goes down. Among QBs with at least 75 pass attempts this season, Jameis Winston ranks top-5 in both categories.
Offense: Cleveland is passing on 61% of their red zone plays, their highest rate since 2015 (63.8%).
Defense: In their three games before the Week 10 bye, the Browns allowed a touchdown on seven of eight red zone trips.
Fantasy: Cedric Tillman has been on the field for over 80% of Cleveland’s offensive snaps over their past three games after failing to reach 40% in each of the first six weeks and guess what the 6’3” 24-year-old has done with the opportunity?
- 3 straight top-12 finishes
- 1 end zone target in every game
- 140.8 air yards per game
Betting: The Browns are 1-7 ATS (12.5%) in their past eight road games played on extended rest.
New Orleans Saints
Team: The Saints have played four games this season decided by a FG or less (only the Colts and Texans have more such games).
QB: Derek Carr’s average length of touchdown passes this season is a league-high 29.6 yards. He’s the only QB with an average of even 27 yards and is easily pacing for the highest mark of his career.
Offense: Since Week 3, only the Chargers and Browns finish a higher percentage of their offensive drives with a punt than the Saints (46.1%).
Defense: Only 28.6% of opponent drives result in a punt against the Saints (28th).
Fantasy: Alvin Kamara has three straight games with at least 50 receiving and 50 rushing yards, joining Christian McCaffrey as the only player with such a streak since 2017.
Betting: The Saints are just 6-8 outright in their past 14 games as a favorite (5-9 ATS over that run).