The New Orleans Saints‘ playoff chances suffered a big blow with their loss last week, but all is not lost. Entering Week 17, the Saints’ playoff scenarios are pretty slim, but they still have a chance to stay in the picture if they can knock off the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week. That will ensure the race for the NFC South stays alive into Week 18, and the Saints have a chance to snatch the division away from Tampa Bay.
Let’s examine the Saints’ playoff scenarios and chances heading into their crucial clash with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Saints Playoff Chances | Week 17 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Dec. 31 before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After Week 17, the Saints are the No. 9 seed in the NFC.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Bears (7-9) defeated Falcons (7-9)
Rams (9-7) defeated Giants (5-11)
Saints (8-8) defeated Buccaneers (8-8)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
Steelers (9-7) defeated Seahawks (8-8)
Sunday Night Update
Packers (8-8) defeated Vikings (7-9)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Saints entering Week 17. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the New Orleans Saints’ Playoff Chances and Scenarios Entering Week 17?
Based on current estimations from the PFN NFL Playoff Predictor, the Saints have an eight percent chance of making the playoffs and a four percent chance of winning the division. However, the Saints also know that a win or at least a tie this week is crucial, or they will head to Week 18 already eliminated.
If the Saints go 2-0 down the stretch, they have a chance of making the playoffs at 9-8 as either the division winner or in the NFC Wild Card race. New Orleans would also need the Buccaneers to lose to the Carolina Panthers in Week 18 if they wanted to take the NFC North crown.
While victories for the Saints in the next two weeks and a Week 18 victory for the Buccaneers would leave them tied on overall record and division record, they would not be able to pass Tampa when it comes to their record against common opponents. Therefore, for the Saints, there is no tie scenario where they can come out on top.
New Orleans has to either win the NFC South outright on their overall record, or they will have to rely on the Wild Card picture opening up for them, which is far from ideal.
Part of the problem for the Saints is that one of the two teams sitting a game ahead of them, the Los Angeles Rams, defeated them last week. Therefore, if the Rams match the Saints’ result this week, New Orleans will not be able to pass them in any playoff tiebreaker scenarios.
In addition, the Saints have also lost to the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings, who are also currently on 7-8. Therefore, if New Orleans is tied with either of them in a two-way scenario, they would immediately lose out on the head-to-head tiebreaker. The only team in the thick of the race that they have not lost to is the Seattle Seahawks.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
The problem there is that in the event of a tie, the best the Saints can do is tie on conference record with the Seahawks at 6-6. They would also be tied on record against common opponents at 4-2.
That would then bring us to the “Strength of Victory” tiebreaker, where the Seahawks currently have a huge advantage of .425 to .305.
What all of this means is that the Saints would not currently have a tiebreaker advantage against any of the teams they could tie with on overall record this season. That is why a loss this week would eliminate the Saints from playoff contention.
They would not be able to surpass either the Rams or Seahawks for those final two Wild Card spots, even with a win in Week 18.
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