The New Orleans Saints enter Week 15 of the 2023 NFL season knowing that their path to the playoffs rests entirely in their own hands over the next four weeks. The outcome of last week’s game between the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers flipped the script and put the Saints in charge of their own destiny.
With the assistance of PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor, let’s examine how the Saints’ playoff scenarios break down so that the team currently in third in the division controls its own destiny this season.
New Orleans Saints Playoff Chances – Week 15 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Sunday, Dec. 17 at 8:35 a.m. ET before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After Week 15, the Saints are the No. 9 seed in the NFC. The Saints briefly got into the seventh seed after their game, but the Rams’ win moved Los Angeles back ahead of New Orleans based on conference record.
1 p.m. Games Update
Panthers (2-12) defeated Falcons (6-8)
Buccaneers (7-7) defeated the Packers (6-8)
Saints (7-7) defeated the Giants (5-9)
Browns (9-5) defeated Bears (5-9)
4 p.m. Games Update
Rams (7-7) defeated Commanders (4-10)
49ers (11-3) defeated Cardinals (3-11)
Monday Night Football Update
Seahawks (7-7) defeated Eagles (10-4)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Saints entering Sunday of Week 15. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the New Orleans Saints’ Playoff Chances in 2023?
It is not usual for a team sitting third in the division to have a greater than 30% chance of winning the division, but that is the case for the Saints, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). Entering Week 15, the Saints’ chances of making the playoffs reside at 42%, with their chances of winning the division sitting at 33.5%.
The NFC South could not be more evenly poised right now. ESPN’s FPI gives the Buccaneers the best chance in the division, but even then, we are talking just 35.5%, with the Falcons at 31.1%. The way the remaining games shape up, there are a number of intriguing scenarios for how the division and NFC Wild Card picture could play out in the last four weeks.
What Are the Saints’ Playoff Scenarios for Week 15?
Due to the Saints still having games remaining against both the Buccaneers and Falcons, they control their own destiny. Win out, and the division is theirs. Victory over the Buccaneers and Falcons will ensure that neither team can match New Orleans, assuming they do not lose in the next two weeks.
If the Saints drop one of their next two, then we start to enter the world of the NFL playoff tiebreakers. As things stand in Week 15, the Saints are third in the division because they lost the first meetings against both the Falcons and Buccaneers. Therefore, realistically, at a minimum, the Saints need to beat Tampa Bay and Atlanta in the final two weeks.
If New Orleans loses either of those games, it will make it very hard to come out on top in any tiebreaker scenario. Either they will be hurt by a head-to-head sweep, or it will be damning in terms of their division record, which already sits at 2-2 and would be, at best, 3-3 with a loss in either of those games.
The Saints could, in theory, go 2-2 down the stretch with both wins coming in those last two weeks and still make the playoffs. They would need some help and things to break their way in the tiebreakers, but New Orleans will enter Week 17 with a chance to win the division regardless of what happens in the next two weeks.
MORE: New Orleans Saints Depth Chart
Ideally, the Saints would like to open up some breathing room by winning this week and seeing both the Buccaneers and Falcons lose. That would shoot them to the top of the division and give them some margin for error in Week 16. However, it would not change the importance of those final two games.
Additionally, the best-case scenario for the Saints would see the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks lose in Week 15. That would help them in the event they miss out on the division and need a Wild Card spot to make the playoffs.
Even then, they would probably still need to go at least 2-1 down the stretch, especially with a game against the Rams looming in Week 16. The Minnesota Vikings’ loss on Saturday has positives and negatives for the Saints.
Yes, it keeps another spot in the mix, but Minnesota has a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Saints which could count against them in certain scenarios.
The worst-case scenario for the Saints this week could see them a game back from both the NFC South and the NFC Wild Card standings. If they lose, they are guaranteed to be at least a half-game back from one or both, with the Buccaneers and Green Bay Packers facing each other in Week 15.
With losses on the card against both the Vikings and the Packers, the Saints could all but eliminate themselves from the Wild Card picture if they lose to the New York Giants in Week 15 and then back that up with a loss to the Rams in Week 16. There would be too many head-to-head losses piling up against them at that point.
When Could the Saints Clinch the NFC South?
The Saints’ season finishing with the Buccaneers and Falcons in back-to-back weeks has its pros and cons. On the one hand, it means they are guaranteed to remain alive in the playoff picture entering Week 17. However, the counter is that they cannot clinch the division until Week 17, either.
Even if the Saints go 2-0 in Weeks 15 and 16, and the Buccaneers and Falcons go 0-2, the division will be alive entering Week 17. The Saints’ earlier losses to the Falcons and Buccaneers mean that two losses to their divisional opponents could see the division snatched from their grasp in Week 18 if results go against them elsewhere.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!