Two teams that fantasy football managers hope to find a rhythm this week square off in Foxborough on Sunday — do we get some high-end production? The New Orleans Saints’ fantasy preview details a bounce-back spot for their star receiver, and the New England Patriots’ fantasy outlook wonders aloud if there is anybody on this roster you can trust.
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New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots
- Spread: Patriots -1.5
- Total: 40
- Saints implied points: 19.3
- Patriots implied points: 20.8
Quarterbacks
Derek Carr: It wasn’t clear that Carr would play until late in the process last week, and it was clear that the shoulder injury limited what he was capable of doing. His aDOT dropped by 15.8% from the first three weeks (37 passes for 127 yards), and based on how he looked when trying to stretch the field, you could argue that it should have dipped further.
Carr is a fringe option in a perfect matchup at full health — he checks none of those boxes this weekend, and you don’t need to look his way in any situation.
Mac Jones: He threw three touchdown passes in the season opener and has tossed two on 92 attempts since.
This offense is stuck in the mud, with their point total declining every single week.
Until Jones shows signs of growth, I don’t want any Patriots on my roster.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara: The 24 touches in his season debut were encouraging, but how sustainable is it? With Carr not right, Kamara vacuumed in 14 targets (13 catches) — for all of 33 yards. We had efficiency concerns after a down 2022 for Kamara, and they proved accurate last week against the Buccaneers.
Hot take: a healthier version of Carr would actually help Kamara. Sure, it would result in fewer dump-offs, but if he is healthy enough to stretch the field, that puts Kamara in space when he does get on the field.
He’s a top-15 play for me this week (49 snaps while Tony Jones Jr. and Kendre Miller combined for 16) and carries more scoring equity this week than he will when Jamaal Williams returns.
Jamaal Williams: Williams remains on IR through Week 6 (hamstring). His touch count will be limited with Kamara now in the mix, though his role inside the 10-yard line figures to be safe. After this week, I’d look at the waiver wire and see if Williams is available.
Kendre Miller: It’s OK to let go of priors. Coming into the season, the idea of stashing Miller was appealing, but after one month, it is clear that the role simply isn’t there for him.
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You can safely cut ties in Week 7 when Williams is due back, and I don’t mind doing it before then if you’re running into depth problems.
Rhamondre Stevenson: He was drafted as a top-15 running back in August and has yet to produce top-15 numbers a single time this season.
In fact, he hasn’t been a top-30 running back in consecutive weeks. He out-snapped Ezekiel Elliott 35-22 last week and remains the lead in this backfield, but that’s like saying that Starbursts are the healthiest junk food. Does it even matter?
"Last year, he's getting over two yards after contact… this year he's at 0.2"@_AndrewCallahan breaks down why Rhamondre Stevenson has looked so 'off' this season compared to last year 🤔 pic.twitter.com/njzpma2PLd
— NBC Sports Boston's Patriots Coverage (@NBCSPatriots) September 26, 2023
Stevenson has gone three straight weeks without a touch gaining more than 12 yards. He’s not a top-20 running for me moving forward, and in a tough matchup, he’s much closer to RB30 than RB20.
Ezekiel Elliott: Nope. If I’m not confident that the starter in this backfield is anything more than a Flex, the short end of that committee needs not be rostered.
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Yes, Zeke has been more involved than we projected this summer. No, that doesn’t mean he needs to be rostered. He’s easily outside of my top 30 this week, and there are a handful of backfields where I’d rather play either of their top two options ahead of Elliott (Chicago, Green Bay, Carolina, and Denver).
Wide Receivers
Chris Olave: Derek Tate mentioned Olave as a buy on our Tuesday podcast this week, and if there is any level of panic from the Olave manager in your league, you better pounce!
I’m not talking about “I’ll send an offer later when I think about it.” I’m talking “minimize this screen, pull up your league page, and offer a trade that evaluates Olave as a low-end WR2.” He’s a star and is going to be just fine. His six-target, four-yard Week 4 was gruesome and likely cost the Olave manager the week, but as Carr rehabs, better times are ahead.
Olave is a top-10 receiver for me this week and for the remainder of the season.
Michael Thomas: In a game where Carr couldn’t stretch the field, Thomas led the Saints with 53 receiving yards last week. He is a viable starter as we get into bye-week season, but the capped ceiling is going to have him outside my top 30 most weeks.
He has yet to finish as a top-35 receiver this season, per the Week 5 Cheat Sheet, and despite seeing eight targets per game, he’s yet to reach 65 receiving yards or score. The range of outcomes is awfully narrow: there’s a place and time for a player like that, just not for those interested in chasing upside.
Rashid Shaheed: Much like the Carr injury sapped Olave of his upside in Week 4, Shaheed was in a terrible spot last week. He recorded 89 receiving yards in the season-opening win over the Titans and has just 96 in his three games since, highlighting his floor in the process.
But I’m holding, and I’ll tell you why. His speed and profile confirm his status as an elite deep threat; I’m not sure I need to sell you on that. The fact that he was able to earn a season-high seven targets last week was encouraging. The deep pass game wasn’t an option, and he was finding space in the short-to-intermediate pass game. He is safely outside of my top 35 this week, though he very much needs to remain rostered.
JuJu Smith-Schuster: If the counting stats weren’t enough to sell you on Smith-Schuster being on the waiver wire radar, the fact that he posted his lowest snap share of the season should. The limitations of this offense and him in any sort of feature role far outweigh the goodwill his name brings in fantasy conversation: there is no reason to keep him rostered.
Kendrick Bourne and DeVante Parker: Neither of these receivers has been a top-50 receiver in any of the past three weeks, proof positive that this offense is the exception to fantasy football in 2023 — not a single pass catcher on this roster should be remotely close to starting lineups.
Tight Ends
Taysom Hill: If you’re streaming the position, you’re signing up for a low floor. You just are. That’s the price of doing business, so why not roll the dice on Hill’s unique usage and rare ceiling with a banged-up starting quarterback? He’s not a safe play by any means, but his path to opportunities has him inside my top 15 this week, with Juwan Johnson battling a calf injury.
Hunter Henry: It wasn’t that long ago when Henry was the top-scoring TE in fantasy. Life comes at you fast. Henry hasn’t been a top-15 performer at the position in either of the past two weeks, totaling just six catches in the process. He needs a touchdown to matter, something that can be said for roughly 97 tight ends, and this offense isn’t putting him in a position to get it done.
Should You Start Alvin Kamara or Kyren Williams?
I have Kamara ranked a few spots higher than Williams this week for two reasons. The first is that I think the Eagles have a good chance at shutting down the Rams, and with Williams’ value stemming from scoring (six touchdowns) over efficiency (3.8 yards per carry), there isn’t only a low floor in play this week, but also a capped ceiling.
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The second is the health of Derek Carr. He certainly looked hampered by this shoulder injury last week, and that resulted in Kamara being the top option in both the pass and run game. I think Carr is probably healthier this week than last, but until he has confidence in stretching the field, Kamara should be a PPR monster who projects for 18-20 touches.
As a whole, I prefer the Saints offense to the Rams offense this week, allowing Kamara to offset the lack in scoring equity that he holds in this 1-on-1 matchup most weeks and grade out higher for me.
Should You Start Rhamondre Stevenson or Gus Edwards?
Stevenson’s struggles are no secret, and I’m not sure this is the week the Patriots surpass 20 points for the first time this season. Without an elite role, efficiency, or scoring equity, the case for Stevenson is thin, to say the least.
Lamar Jackson has four rushing scores over the past two weeks, and his taking away scoring opportunities from Edwards is certainly a fear. That said, I’m not worried about Edwards’ touch count or Baltimore’s ability to move the ball this week, giving him a higher mean projection this week than that of New England’s struggling back.