Thursday Night Football this week may only feature a few noteworthy names, but every fantasy football decision matters in a big way this time of year!
The New Orleans Saints fantasy outlook centers around Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill, while the Los Angeles Rams fantasy preview looks to sort out the value of their pass catchers like Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp!
TNF Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams
- Spread: Rams -4
- Total: 46
- Saints implied points: 21
- Rams implied points: 25
Derek Carr, QB, New Orleans Saints
By throwing five touchdown passes and completing 75.9% of his passes in consecutive soft matchups, Carr’s name may be on your radar — don’t make that mistake. He has thrown just 76 passes over the past three weeks and this matchup isn’t nearly as advantageous as facing the Carolina Panthers and New York Giants.
Carr was QB7 in fantasy last week, his first finish better than QB19 since Week 9. Move on.
Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams
The recent form of Matthew Stafford is enough to land him inside my top 15 in the QB rankings, but the matchup against the fifth-best pass defense keeps him outside of my top 10.
The veteran QB has multiple TD passes in four straight games and has finished, on average, as QB8 over that stretch. With a 40+ yard completion in three of those four games, the talent around Stafford is enough to land him squarely on the streaming radar if you’re dealing with injury or worried about Tua Tagovailoa and C.J. Stroud in tough spots.
Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
Some might consider Kamara a disappointment this season due to the lack of a true ceiling, but I’d argue that the floor he has provided has resulted in a fine return on the investment you made this summer.
Kamara has been an RB2 or better in every game this season, but he hasn’t finished better than the RB14 for fantasy in five of his past six games, fueling the feeling of anguish.
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With 15 carries or a touchdown in each of his past four games, Kamara deserves to be locked into lineups, even if the potential isn’t what you thought it would be.
Jamaal Williams, RB, New Orleans Saints
The Rams are an above-average defense when it comes to both limiting red zone trips and the percentage of those trips resulting in touchdowns, making Williams a tough sell as a Flex play in any format.
His snap count flirted with Kamara’s last week (32-29 edge in Kamara’s favor with a 14-10 advantage in routes), which is enough to earn him a spot on rosters. But there simply isn’t enough projectable volume to count on Williams in any capacity.
Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams
The Rams tried to get cute last week as they got in close to the end zone and they found out exactly why they let Williams handle the heavy lifting in that regard.
Upon getting into a goal-to-goal situation, Royce Freeman got a carry and then a goofy play-action pass where Kupp was sent in motion one way and Stafford rolled the other. Neither worked, so they let Williams punch it in, continuing his run as one of the most reliable options in the game this season.
He’s been a top-10 RB in three of four games since returning to the field, not bad for a back that was top-10 in four of six games before getting banged up. Williams is as valuable as any running back not named Christian McCaffrey this week… and I don’t think that’s a hot take.
Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
Much like Kamara, Chris Olave’s status as a fantasy superstar is debatable, but he rarely puts you in a spot to lose your matchup (top 30 in five straight games with an average positional finish of WR17).
An ankle injury cost Olave Week 15, making his health status worth monitoring. No Saints player stepped into his target share, thus, giving me confidence that if he is deemed healthy enough to return for this matchup, his 8.9-target role will be sitting right there for him against the defense with the second-highest opponent aDOT — Average Depth of Target — this season.
Rashid Shaheed, WR, New Orleans Saints
That last part of the Olave analysis gives me some hope in Rashid Shaheed if I’m a massive underdog in a win-or-go-home spot. But outside of that, playing Shaheed comes with a lower floor than I’m willing to deal with.
With Olave out last week, Shaheed’s managers were hopeful that the deep threat would see his target rate spike and thus give him access to a ceiling that we know is strong.
No luck. He posted just a 14.3% target share — fourth on the team. Shaheed hasn’t been a top-50 receiver since Week 8 and isn’t a viable option in most semifinal situations.
Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
After not scoring in five straight games, Kupp has reached the end zone in three straight, catching 22 of 26 targets over that stretch (84.6% catch percentage).
MORE: Are Kupp and Nacua Safe Options for Week 16?
Were his stats inflated last week due to a miscommunication that led to an uncontested 62-yard score? Yes, but even without that play, his volume is moving in a very positive direction. While he’s not the player he was during the historic 2021 run, he’s proving to be valuable for managers who embraced his discount this summer.
Looking ahead to next offseason, every situation is different, but I’m using the Kupp progression as a good reason to bet on talent in your draft, even if at less than full health when your fantasy draft is taking place.
Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams
The rookie extended his season-long streak of consecutive games with at least seven targets, though his five catches netted just 50 yards. The ability to earn targets trumps his recent struggles to put up big numbers with those opportunities and is the driver behind my ranking of him as a WR2.
Every week, a weird trend emerges for at least one player as I comb through these players, and Nacua is that player this week. This season…
- Games vs. AFC North: 103.8 receiving yards/game, 18.9 yards/catch
- Games vs. rest of NFL: 74.8 receiving yards/game, 11.5 yards/catch
Sadly, the Saints are not a part of the AFC North.
Demarcus Robinson joined Kupp and Nacua in running a route on every single Stafford dropback. He was filling in for Tutu Atwell and has now scored in all three games this month. Does it matter? For me, it doesn’t — not in terms of your starting lineup in the fantasy semifinals, at least.
With Stafford playing at a high level, the WR3 in this offense deserves to be rostered, but given the target-earning skills of the top two receivers in this offense, there’s not enough in the way of volume (9.4% target share on Sunday) for me to label this position as anything more than a desperation play against the fifth-best pass defense on a per-attempt basis.
Taysom Hill, TE, New Orleans Saints
After sitting out Week 14, Taysom Hill underwhelmed in a major way against the Giants last week as he posted one target, one rush, and one pass attempt. His unique skill set provides him access to an elevated floor that is rare for the position, but if he’s operating at less than full strength, his lack of excelling in any one role puts him in a spot to completely fail like he did last weekend.
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Having Olave on the field certainly would be helpful, as it stretches the defense and limits the attention they can pay to where Hill is lining up. In theory, Hill should be healthier this week than last, and if Olave returns, there should be room for him to exploit a defense that misses the seventh-most tackles per game.
I have Hill as my TE13 — essentially the leader of my fourth tier at the position and one that you can roll the dice on if you’re stuck.
Tyler Higbee, TE, Los Angeles Rams
Has the shine of that multi-TD Week 12 performance in Arizona worn off yet? This is an offense that is more than capable of running the ball and one that prioritizes three receivers ahead of him when they do take to the air.
Stafford playing at a high level gives Tyler Higbee the ability to be efficient on the few targets he does see (78.6% catch rate over the past month), but without volume or much in the way of scoring equity, you can find better options on your waiver wire.
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