In fantasy football, we want good players on good offenses. The New Orleans Saints‘ offense feels like it should be better than it is. In his second year with the team, can Derek Carr make significant strides? Is this the year we get the true Chris Olave ascension?
Our Saints fantasy preview covers it all.
New Orleans Saints Fantasy Depth Chart
QB
Derek Carr, Spencer Rattler, Jake Haener
RB
Alvin Kamara, Jamaal Williams, Kendre Miller, James Robinson
WR1
Chris Olave, Cedrick Wilson Jr., Stanley Morgan
WR2
Rashid Shaheed, Equanimeous St. Brown
WR3
A.T. Perry, Bub Means
TE
Juwan Johnson, Taysom Hill, Foster Moreau
Derek Carr’s Fantasy Outlook
It’s kind of impressive how long Carr has been the same quarterback. Now entering his 11th season, it’s highly unlikely anything will change.
Carr has never averaged more than 17.8 fantasy points per game in a season. Over the past three seasons, he hasn’t even gotten to 16. He’s never finished as a QB1, and his highest finish in the past seven years is overall QB16.
Last year, Carr hit 20 fantasy points just twice, and not until Week 15. Meanwhile, he had five games in the single digits.
The Saints’ offense didn’t bring in any new playmakers. They didn’t make any major coaching changes. Carr projects to be the same player he’s been. He’ll go undrafted in every standard 12-team, one-QB league but pop up throughout the year as a streamer in good matchups.
Alvin Kamara’s Fantasy Outlook
Easily one of the toughest players to evaluate this season is Alvin Kamara. Now 29 years old, the end is near for one of the best running backs of the past decade.
Last season, Kamara rebounded following a dismal 2022 year to finish as the overall RB3, averaging 17.9 fantasy points per game. On the surface, it may look extremely encouraging.
Plus, as we know, receiving ability does not decline at nearly the same rate as rushing ability. If Kamara can remain close to his 19.3% target share from last season, he should be able to sustain RB1 fantasy value.
While the targets are the driving force behind evaluating Kamara, we can’t ignore what we saw on the ground. Kamara averaged 3.9 yards per carry. That’s now three straight seasons at 4.0 or worse for a guy who was between 4.6 and 6.1 each of his first four seasons.
Including tonight's game, Alvin Kamara has been targeted more than 171 times since the 2021 season — 4th most among NFL RBs (via @IE_NFL)#JAXvsNO | #PFN365 pic.twitter.com/R03CAiHzRt
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 20, 2023
Kamara was one of the most inefficient runners in 2023. A mere 3.3% of his carries went for 15+ yards. His evaded-tackles-per-touch rate was outside the top 45, and his yards created per touch was outside the top 25. This is a player who used to be at the top of the league in these categories.
The entirety of Kamara’s fantasy value stemmed from receiving volume. That’s fine if it continues. Volume is king, and a target is worth 2.5-3x more than a carry. But if his target share merely drops to 15-16%, which is still very good, that would be seriously damaging to his fantasy value.
MORE: Consensus Dynasty Rankings
On the flip side, Kamara only scored six times last season. He could easily get to 10, which would offset any reduction in volume.
While Kamara is clearly declining as a runner, there’s not much in the way of competition for touches. Plus, without a clear second option in the passing game behind Chris Olave, Kamara’s target share does look to be pretty safe.
It’s not going to be pretty, and it’s always risky drafting old running backs, but Kamara does look like a “hold your nose and just dive in” option this season.
Chris Olave’s Fantasy Outlook
Last season, Olave established himself as the Saints’ clear WR1, catching 87 passes for 1,123 yards and five touchdowns. He averaged a respectable 14.5 fantasy points per game.
While Olave was good, he didn’t have quite the breakout we hoped for. There were a lot of fantasy points left on the field.
Olave saw a 25.2% target share. We want to see at least 25% from NFL WR1s. In Olave’s case, it should be even higher this season, as there’s zero target competition.
Chris Olave has been targeted 70 times since Week 17 of the 2022 season — tied for 9th-most among NFL WRs (via @IE_NFL)#JAXvsNO | #PFN365pic.twitter.com/QfkdeYFpEj
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 20, 2023
Even with Carr struggling to connect with Olave deep, the wide receiver still averaged 2.08 yards per route run, 21st in the league. His 8.1 yards per target was far worse, but that was largely due to him and Carr being unable to connect frequently on deep throws.
Olave was third in the league with over 1,000 unrealized air yards. He saw over 30 deep targets, the fourth most in the league. He just didn’t catch many of them. Olave left at least 3-4 long touchdowns on the field.
If even two of those connect, we’re talking about a guy who averaged 16 points per game and likely finished as a WR1.
I am not abandoning Olave because he didn’t quite live up to expectations last year. Now entering his third season, the stage is set for the true breakout. I am all in for 2024.
Taysom Hill’s Fantasy Outlook
At this point, we know what Taysom Hill is. He’s averaged between 9.0 and 10.6 fantasy points for four straight seasons. And, as always, that’s never a consistent 9-10 points.
Last season, Hill had games of 12.3, 16.8, 22.5, 20.6, and 15.4 fantasy points. He also had seven games with fewer than 4.0 fantasy points.
Taysom Hill TD No. 4 🏠pic.twitter.com/RPp3ToGWf3
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 9, 2022
Hill will play the same role this season he’s played his entire career (outside of the spot starts he made at quarterback). You’re just hoping he falls into the end zone. Hill is not a desirable fantasy tight end.
Saints Fantasy Sleepers
After averaging 7.5 fantasy points per game last season, I am not going to consider Juwan Johnson a sleeper. There’s simply no reason to draft him. If he pops up during the season, feel free to pick him up.
Much like last year, the only real sleeper on this roster is Rashid Shaheed. The outside burner averaged 10.4 fantasy points per game, which is nothing to scoff at for a double-digit-round pick.
Shaheed’s main value stems from his splash-play ability. He’s the ideal second Flex in deeper leagues, as he has the potential to swing matchups with his game-breaking speed.
Shaheed was mostly not worth starting last season, but he still had four games with 18+ fantasy points. Not many fantasy WR4s can say that.
Of course, he also had nine single-digit outings. But if you’re starting Shaheed, you know what you’re getting yourself into.
Lastly, I do want to mention A.T. Perry. The sophomore WR had a couple of nice catches as a rookie. However, even in opportunities where both Olave and Michael Thomas were out, Perry couldn’t earn targets. He could have improved significantly from last year, but this is a situation where I want to see it first. He’s not worth drafting even in deeper leagues.