It’s been just seven weeks since the Miami Dolphins beat the New England Patriots, but they might as well be two totally different teams. Instead of Jacoby Brissett vs. Snoop Huntley, it’ll be a far more appealing quarterback matchup Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium: Drake Maye vs. Tua Tagovailoa.
We reset the table in this long-running divisional rivalry in our Week 12 Patriots vs. Dolphins preview.
New England Patriots-Miami Dolphins Game Preview
The 119th meeting of Patriots-Dolphins will be the first meeting between Tagovailoa (the No. 5 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft) and Maye (the No. 3 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft).
Drake looks to buck a brutal recent history. The Dolphins have won seven of eight against the Patriots, including a 15-10 result in Week 6 in which Miami rushed for 193 yards on 41 attempts.
But since getting smoked by the Jaguars in Week 7, the Patriots have gone 2-2, with three of those games decided by a single possession.
The Dolphins are also trending in the right direction, particularly on offense. Since Tagovailoa returned from injured reserve in Week 8, they’re third in the NFL in EPA per play (.189).
In that span, the Dolphins have scored on 21 of 31 non-end-of-half drives, with 10 of those 21 scoring possessions stretching 10 or more plays.
Want a sense of the difference Tua makes to Miami’s offense? In the 251 snaps this year that Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle have all been on the field at the same time, the Dolphins’ EPA per play is 0.15.
When Waddle and Hill have been on the field with any quarterback other than Tua this year, their EPA plummets to -0.28.
In fact, they were better off having neither Waddle nor Hill on the field when Tua was hurt (their EPA per play in that situation was -0.04) than both of them, which makes sense, because they were effective only as a power running team during that stretch.
The Patriots’ defense has actually regressed since that Week 5 meeting. New England was 23rd in defensive EPA per play in the season’s first five weeks (0.059). It’s been 0.091 in the six weeks since (25th).
That’s a big reason why the Dolphins as of Friday were 7.5-point home favorites after covering a similar spread in a Week 11 win over the Las Vegas Raiders. They were -360 to win outright; the Patriots’ moneyline, meanwhile, was +285. The over/under stood at 46.
More than six in 10 bettors and nearly 70% of the money had laid the points as of Friday.
Miami enters Week 12 action with a 24.6% chance of reaching the postseason, per the PFN Playoff Predictor. New England’s chances stand at just 0.1%.
Want more Patriots-Dolphins stats? Here are seven of them courtesy of TruMedia.
Seven Patriots-Dolphins Stats From TruMedia
Stat: New England has allowed opponents to convert just three of 22 (13.6%) third downs over the past two weeks.
Analysis: We’re about to find out if it’s a real trend. Tua, on third and fourth downs since his return, has connected on 78% of his attempts, averaged 8.5 yards per attempt, thrown two touchdowns and no picks (118.5 rating), and has 25 passing first downs on 45 dropbacks.
Stat: Protect the franchise centerpiece, and we might be onto something. Maye has completed 34 of 40 passes (85%) over the past two weeks when not pressured.
Analysis: The Dolphins are just 20th in pass-rush win rate (40%), and their 17 sacks are third-fewest in the league. They need to find a way to generate pressure Sunday.
Stat: Over the past two weeks, the Patriots have settled for seven field goals on their 10 red-zone drives.
Analysis: This will probably be where the game is decided. Over their past three games, the Dolphins have allowed just three touchdowns on 11 red-zone trips.
Stat: In 2022, Tagovailoa’s average depth of throw was 9.6 yards. Last season, it dipped to 7.6, and thus far in 2024, it sits at 5.6 (Week 11 vs. Raiders: 4.9).
Analysis: This is a feature, not a bug. The Dolphins believe they’re better off taking the underneath stuff when teams play two-high and counting on Tagovailoa executing on third down.
Stat: In Tagovailoa’s four games back, De’Von Achane has caught 23 of 25 targets (17-game pace: 98 receptions).
Analysis: Achane is Miami’s RB1 — and rising. Fantasy managers will be interested to hear this about Achane from Dolphins OC Frank Smith: “Whatever the game requires, he’s ready for it.”
Stat: Tagovailoa has covered nine of his past 12 divisional games, but it rarely comes without a sweat (average cover margin: +2.7 points).
Analysis: There’s no place Tom Brady hated visiting more than Miami, the site of some of his worst moments in an otherwise otherworldly career. Since 2013, the Patriots are 2-9 ATS (18.2%) when playing in Miami.
Stat: For the second time in as many games, the Dolphins’ offense in Week 11 didn’t have a single play run while trailing.
Analysis: That’s a meaningful reversal from early in the season when the Dolphins didn’t run a single offensive snap with the lead until the first quarter of Week 5.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Predictions
- David Bearman (64.2% on the season): Dolphins
- Mike Gambardella (65.4%): Dolphins
- Adam Beasley (64.2%): Dolphins
- Dakota Randall (58.2%): Dolphins
- Dallas Robinson (63%): Dolphins
- Kyle Soppe (67.2%): Dolphins
- Dan Tomaro (61.8%): Dolphins
- Mike Wobschall (70.9%): Dolphins
- Anthony DiBona (64.2%): Dolphins
PFN’s expert picks for all of Week 12 are available here.