The New England Patriots finished 10-7 with a Wild Card berth in quarterback Mac Jones’ rookie season. Can Bill Belichick and Jones make the playoffs again in 2022? Let’s examine the Patriots’ current record prediction, projected win totals, any intriguing prop bets involving the franchise, and their odds to win the AFC East, AFC, and Super Bowl in 2023.
All odds are from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise stated and are correct as of Aug. 17 at 10:15 a.m. ET.
New England Patriots record prediction 2022
Following the release of the NFL schedule, Caesars has provided odds and spreads for 16 of the Patriots’ 2022 regular-season matchups. Based on those numbers, New England is projected as favorites in six games, underdogs in eight, and a push in two. If their season matches those predictions, the Patriots will have a 6-8-2 record following Week 17 of the 2022 campaign.
The Patriots were one of the strongest statistical teams in the league last year. Ranking sixth in points scored and second in points allowed, Belichick and Josh McDaniels delivered a masterclass in coaching. Few staffs could take a solid but unspectacular roster with a rookie quarterback and make them into such a well-rounded team.
[bet-promo id=”160605″ ]For as impressive as their accomplishment of maximizing their talent was, the Patriots operated as a team lacking the assets to really improve their roster. Besides trading for oft-injured receiver DeVante Parker, the Patriots lost more talent than they acquired. Watching star cornerback J.C. Jackson leave in free agency was yet another ego-driven decision by a regime that is too confident in its ability to replace top talent.
Losing McDaniels to the Las Vegas Raiders was another massive blow. Instead of pairing Jones with an offensive coordinator like Joe Brady or someone who could continue growing the unit, the Patriots opted not to officially name a replacement. Instead, Belichick and Matt Patricia will run the unit. Their AFC East peers were able to get better throughout this offseason. New England likely got worse through their own decision-making.
New England Patriots odds, picks, and props
Now we know the sportsbooks’ predictions for the Patriots on a week-by-week basis. Let’s look at their season-long odds for win totals, the division, conference, and the Super Bowl.
- Patriots win total: 8.5 (over -125, under +105)
- Patriots to have winning record: -115
- AFC East winner: +500
- AFC winner: +2200
- Super Bowl winner: +5000
The Patriots are breaking in more young players this season as they prepare to replace upcoming free agents over the next two seasons. This includes giving more opportunities to running backs Rhamondre Stevenson and Pierre Strong Jr. and wide receiver Tyquan Thornton. They also added diminutive cornerbacks Marcus and Jack Jones in the middle rounds of the 2022 NFL Draft.
Belichick will maximize this defensive talent even with Jackson gone and Dont’a Hightower still on the free agent market. Their upside is more limited without the two playmakers. There’s even more pressure on recent draft picks Christian Barmore, Josh Uche, and Ronnie Perkins to pan out.
It’s possible the Patriots can clear the over if their young investments hit and the offense isn’t too dysfunctional with Patricia running it. But they face the seventh-most difficult strength of schedule in 2022. A six-game stretch that includes Detroit, Cleveland, and the New York Jets (twice) is where they’ll need to pick up as many wins as possible.
The Patriots’ odds reflect expectations of a fringe playoff contender. They’ll need 10 wins again to make the postseason as a Wild Card team.
MVP odds and player props
With the Patriots’ predictions sitting lower than a surefire playoff participant, we’re not likely going to see any one individual be an overwhelming star. Barring a breakout from Thornton as Mac Jones’ primary target or Matt Judon drastically increasing his 12.5-sack mark from 2021, the best Patriots betting odds are player props.
As always, we have a number of great Patriots odds for you below. Let’s dive into our top playable props.
- MVP
Mac Jones +6000 - Defensive Player of the Year
Matt Judon +5000 - Coach of the Year
Bill Belichick +2000 - Mac Jones regular-season passing yards
Over/Under 3,950.5 (-110) - DeVante Parker regular-season receiving yards
Over/Under 695.5 (-115) - Jakobi Meyers regular-season receiving yards
Over/Under 750.5 (over -110, under -120) - Matt Judon regular-season sacks
Over/Under 10.25 (over +100, under -130)
After a rookie season that caught some by surprise, Jones is in a more difficult situation for 2022. He’ll benefit from several roster upgrades like the addition of Parker, Thornton, and Cole Strange.
But losing McDaniels is massive considering how effective this running game was last year. His timely play-calling made him one of the best OCs in the NFL. New England is transitioning to fewer gap runs and implementing more zone concepts as well, which could prove to be a mistake considering the success this team has had running power over the years.
Additionally, New England is overloading Jones with the responsibility to own the offense. The reports out of camp have not been pretty. Jones is a smart, highly accurate short and intermediate passer. But he’s still in his second year and doesn’t have the physical tools to overcome mental gaffes or create outside of the scheme consistently.
At least oddsmakers have been reasonable with player props for Parker, Judon, and last year’s leading receiver, Jakobi Meyers. We’ll break down our favorite team and player props below.
2022 picks
I’m selling the Patriots in 2022. They’re not a bad team, but being average without explosive, reliable playmakers is the opposite of the league’s current trend. The rest of the conference loaded up while the Patriots spent the majority of their cap space in 2021 on solid role players.
For as well as Jalen Mills, Kendrick Bourne, and others have played since landing in New England, Judon is the only impactful stud Belichick has found in recent years. We’ll see if Stevenson is ready for a bigger role or if the aforementioned trio of pass rushers can make a big impact.
The Patriots’ moves are more geared toward future years rather than 2022. With the AFC West so strong, the Buffalo Bills as Super Bowl favorites, and several other teams looking much improved this year, Belichick is seemingly preparing for 2024 without rebuilding. By then, these recent additions will be in their prime.
New England’s defense will be disciplined but not impactful. Their offense will be consistent but not explosive. That leads to mediocrity.
It’s hard to fault him for threading the needle of being competitive and not devoting too much while the team can’t win it all. However, with the Dolphins looking much improved and the Patriots having such a demanding schedule, I like fading this team and taking the positive value of return instead.
1u: Patriots under 8.5 wins (+105)
1u: Patriots finish third in AFC East (+165)
Player props
Jones threw for 3,801 yards last year as the Patriots produced the eighth-most rush attempts in the league. It’s hard to see much more upside for Jones, barring a volume increase. Parker is another possession threat, and Thornton is a rookie version of Nelson Agholor, who did not find chemistry with Jones last year.
In fact, it’s likely we see a slight decrease from Jones instead. His 67.6% completion rate and 7.3 yards per attempt were standout stats for the rookie but also might be his ceiling for production. His high floor was a selling point but also a concern throughout the draft process.
Parker, if healthy, will be a stud in this offense. He’s been a star of training camp thus far, with Jones creating a clear rapport despite his issues creating separation. Parker’s been plagued with injuries throughout his career but will reach this low total if he plays in 12 or more games.
I’m passing on props involving any other offensive playmaker since it’s unlikely the unit is as effective as last season. Meyers’ receiving total would be an over without Parker, but with him, Thornton, and Jonnu Smith possibly taking a bigger role, I don’t want to bet on an average talent standing out.
Judon over 10.25 sacks is interesting. Oddsmakers are saying his breakout won’t repeat, but this overlooks how dominant he was last year. After three straight Pro Bowls and the lack of a clear threat to steal sacks, I love getting positive value for Judon to hit 10.5 or more sacks.
1u: Mac Jones under 3,950.5 passing yards (-110)
1u: DeVante Parker over 695.5 receiving yards (-115)
1u: Matt Judon over 10.25 sacks (+100)