After winning a crucial game against the Miami Dolphins in Week 17, the New England Patriots are now in the driver’s seat of the AFC Wild Card race. With only one non-AFC South spot still available in the postseason field, New England is facing another must-win contest in Week 18. Let’s run through the Patriots’ playoff scenarios that will allow them to enter the dance.
Update: Patriots Eliminated After Loss In Buffalo
The Patriots’ loss to the Buffalo Bills left them needing both the Pittsburgh Steelers and Miami Dolphins to lose. However, both the Dolphins and Steelers emerged victorious in Week 18, eliminating the Patriots from playoff contention.
New England Patriots Playoff Scenarios To Watch for in Week 18
It’s been an up-and-down 2022 season for the Patriots, who haven’t been more than two games above or below .500 all year. A devastating loss to the Raiders in Week 15 and a failed comeback attempt against the Bengals in Week 16 put New England at 7-8.
But last week’s victory over Miami gave New England new life, and they now control their playoff destiny.
The Pats can clinch a Wild Card berth by defeating the Bills on Sunday. That is — by far — their most straightforward path to a playoff spot.
At present, it’s unclear if Buffalo will have anything to play for in Week 18. There is no line set for the Patriots-Bills game as the NFL waits for positive news on Buffalo safety Damar Hamlin. New England lost to the Bills 24-10 in a Week 13 home game earlier this season.
MORE: Early NFL Week 18 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
If the NFL decides not to reschedule Week 17’s Bills-Bengals game, the Chiefs could clinch the AFC’s No. 1 seed on Saturday. That would make Sunday’s game largely irrelevant for Buffalo, which might prompt them to rest starters.
The Patriots can lose to the Bills and still make the playoffs, but they’d need some help. If New England loses, they would need the Dolphins to lose to the Jets, the Steelers to fall to the Browns, and the Jaguars to either win or tie against the Titans. In that scenario, the Pats would claim the seventh seed.
If New England and Buffalo tie on Sunday, the Patriots would need a Dolphins loss/tie and a Steelers loss/tie to grab a Wild Card berth.
Buffalo has already clinched the AFC East, so New England has no shot at a division title. Additionally, the Patriots can only enter the postseason as the AFC’s seventh seed. The Bengals/Ravens and Chargers will slot into the No. 5 and No. 6 seeds regardless of what happens in Week 18.
What Are the Patriots’ Playoff Chances?
FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times’ Upshot model give the Patriots a 33-37% chance of making the playoffs. New England is behind the Dolphins (42%) but ahead of the Steelers (21%).
If the Patriots don’t beat the Bills, it’s not inconceivable that things could still fall their way.
The Dolphins will be playing the Jets without Tua Tagovailoa or Teddy Bridgewater. New York beat Miami 40-17 in Week 5, when projected Week 18 starter Skylar Thompson took most of the snaps under center.
The Steelers are favored against the Browns at home, but Pittsburgh isn’t anyone’s idea of a juggernaut. It won’t be all that surprising if Cleveland pulls out the victory.
If New England loses, they’d need the Jaguars to beat the Titans in Saturday’s de facto AFC South Championship Game. Jacksonville is favored by six points at home, and the Patriots will know the result of that game before they play on Sunday.