The New England Patriots saw their hopes of a first-round bye slip away on Saturday, but they still have plenty to play for in Week 18. The Patriots entered the day with the potential to finish in any seeding spot from No. 2 to No. 7. Let’s examine the playoff-clinching scenarios for the Patriots as the NFL playoff picture is set to be finalized on Sunday of Week 18.
New England Patriots playoff scenarios in Week 18
There is a lot for the Patriots to be interested in this week, with the AFC East still up for grabs. After looking like they had the inside track to the No. 1 seed just a few weeks ago, the Patriots cannot let disappointment prevent them from a potential home game on Wild Card Weekend.
In terms of winning the division, the situation is simple. The Patriots need to better the result of the Buffalo Bills. If the Bills win, the Patriots will be on the road next week. However, if the Bills lose, the Patriots could yet have the opportunity to host up to three playoff games. Let’s examine the playoff scenarios for each of the seeding spots available to the Patriots.
How can New England finish as the No. 2 seed?
After the Titans win, the Patriots cannot finish as the number two seed.
How can the Patriots finish as the No. 3 seed?
The Patriots have a couple of scenarios for their path to the third seed in the AFC.
- Patriots win, Bills lose or tie, Titans win or tie
- Patriots tie, Bills lose, Bengals lose or tie
What are the scenarios for New England to finish as the No. 4 seed?
One scenario still exists where the Patriots end up as the fourth seed. Indeed, if New England wins, there is no scenario where the Bengals are seeded higher than them due to the NFL playoff tiebreaker rules and procedures.
- Patriots tie, Bills lose, and Bengals win
What are the scenarios for the Patriots to finish as the fifth seed?
New England can guarantee themselves at least the fifth seed if they win. However, even if they lose, the Patriots have a scenario where they head to the playoffs as the fifth seed.
Let’s look at the scenarios that would make the Patriots the fifth seed.
- Patriots win or tie and Bills win
- Patriots tie and Bills tie
- Patriots lose and Raiders lose or tie
How can New England finish as the No. 6 seed?
As you see from the scenarios above, the Patriots’ seeding position is essentially tied to the result of the Raiders. Las Vegas could yet finish above them if New England loses and they win. Here is the scenario for New England to be the sixth seed in the AFC:
- Patriots lose, Colts lose or tie, and Raiders win
How can the Patriots finish as the No. 7 seed?
The Colts loss ensured the Patriots cannot finish as the seventh seed in the AFC.