The New England Patriots‘ fantasy football preview takes a look at Rhamondre Stevenson’s recent production, while the New York Giants‘ fantasy outlook centers around Saquon Barkley’s value after a big Week 11.
New England Patriots at New York Giants
- Spread: Patriots -3
- Total: 33.5
- Patriots implied points: 18.3
- Giants implied points: 15.3
Quarterbacks
I’m not doing it, and I almost don’t care what format you play in. If it’s not required to start a quarterback from this game, I’m not doing it. That includes Superflex situations where you have the option to look elsewhere.
Running Backs
Rhamondre Stevenson: With 27 targets over his past five games and a pair of rushing scores over that stretch, Stevenson is slowly beginning to pay off some of his preseason ADP (RB21 or better in four of those five games).
I remain very concerned about his value for the fantasy playoffs, but I have no issue starting him this week against a Giants defense that gives up the third most yards per carry and coughed up 131 scrimmage yards to Brian Robinson Jr. last weekend.
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This game features two of the four blitz-happiest defenses in the NFL, and given the lack of reliable play under center on both sidelines, we could be looking at a lot of dump-off passes to support Stevenson’s floor.
I’m looking for 15-ish carries with 5-7 targets, a role in a plus-matchup that is more than enough to land him in starting fantasy lineups.
Ezekiel Elliott: The veteran back has been held to eight carries or fewer in seven of 10 games and has cleared 15 receiving yards just twice this season. There was a moment in October when it looked like Elliott could be a fringe Flex option – but that moment has passed.
Elliott isn’t worth stashing — his current role isn’t roster-worthy, and there just isn’t much room for growth down the stretch.
Saquon Barkley: It would seem that the gravitational pull of Barkley is stronger than the Giants’ offensive vortex, which tries to eliminate all usable fantasy pieces. He has finished as RB17 or better in five of his six games since returning, including a 140-yard two-touchdown showing against the Commanders (fantasy’s top RB).
The third drive last week was a perfect snapshot of Barkley: three carries for -4 yards, two catches for 45 yards, and a score. The floor is concerning, but the versatility is enough to keep him locked into lineups.
The Patriots own the second-best run defense on a per-carry basis – you’re banking on a chunk play or two, but you have one of the best in the game at ripping off gains like that.
Wide Receivers
Demario Douglas: Not every offense needs to have a fantasy pass catcher that is on our radar, and Douglas is a good example of that. With at least five catches in three straight and 29 targets over his past four, he offers an early-season Michael Thomas profile that lacks upside but provides enough of a floor to be usable in the right spot.
A matchup like this, in theory, should make Douglas more appealing than other weeks, but you’re playing a situation more than a player. If you need stability to round out your starting lineup, Douglas is a fine option, no matter the matchup. If you need upside and potential – you’re always going to be looking elsewhere.:
NYG WR: Five different Giants ran at least a dozen routes, and none of them need to be rostered, given the lack of value per target. If you’re in a deep league and looking for upside, Darius Slayton’s big-play potential and ability to earn a target on 22.7% of routes last week are at least noteworthy.
That said, recent studies show that people with a positive outlook on fantasy football are indirectly tied to brain cells spent thinking about the Giants.
Tight Ends
Hunter Henry: Over the past two months, Henry has scored just once, and his last game with a catch gaining more than 16 yards came back in Week 4. The TE position is a wasteland, I get it, but you’re absorbing all the same risk as the other options on the waiver wire without access to much of a ceiling by playing Henry.
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He’s not a top-20 option and doesn’t deserve to be rostered in deep leagues or even tight-end premium spots.
Should You Start Rhamondre Stevenson or Jaylen Warren?
For the rest of the season, I prefer Jaylen Warren. But this is a Week 12 discussion, and in this matchup, Stevenson’s advantage in the role is too much to ignore.
In this spot, a repeat of his 23 touches against the Colts is well within reach and would put him in a position to hold a better ceiling/floor combination than even the most optimistic Warren fan can project.
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