The New England Patriots’ fantasy preview takes a look at the value of Rhamondre Stevenson, while the Miami Dolphins’ fantasy outlook revolves around trying to get Jaylen Waddle back to the value we thought he’d give us.
Will Bill Belichick be able to dampen the fantasy football impact of the league’s most exciting offense?
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
- Spread: Dolphins -9.5
- Total: 47
- Patriots implied points: 19
- Dolphins implied points: 28.5
Quarterbacks
Tua Tagovailoa: It might surprise you that Tagovailoa has more finishes as QB12 or worse than he does QB11 or better this season, but I promise you that’s a fact. To blame is his limited volume through the air with no projectable production on the ground.
Tua hasn’t thrown more than 35 passes in a game since Week 1. He’s currently averaging 30.7 attempts per game over that stretch, per the Week 8 Cheat Sheet.
Of course, not all volume is created equal. The playmakers at Tagovailoa’s disposal elevate the potential of every completion, and with a 71.2% completion percentage this season, he has proven he’s plenty capable of effectively getting the ball in the hands of his elite talent.
You’re starting Tagovailoa every single week, but I wouldn’t be opposed to moving on from him following his next big performance. In Weeks 15-17, he’s taking on the New York Jets, Dallas Cowboys, and Baltimore Ravens.
Running Backs
Rhamondre Stevenson: We are at 87 carries and counting this season for Stevenson without an attempt generating more than 15 yards. A lack of splash-play potential keeps him out of my top-20 running backs every week.
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My efficiency concerns matter a little less this week than most due to the projected game script. Stevenson has 11 catches over the past two weeks and held a 20-4 edge in routes run over Ezekiel Elliott against the Buffalo Bills last Sunday — a role that makes him a fine Flex option for me this week.
If Stevenson produces above my expectations and gives you a third-straight top-20 finish, I’d be looking to cash in this chip.
Ezekiel Elliott: Stevenson held a near 2:1 snap edge over the former Cowboy last week, resulting in a fourth-straight game under 35 rushing yards for Elliott. “Zeke” has scored in consecutive games, but I’m not comfortable betting on touchdown-dependent options who play on a terrible offense. Call me crazy.
If you want to hold Elliott until the Week 11 bye, understanding that, over Weeks 9 and 10, eight teams go on bye, I won’t knock you. But I would be surprised if he’s a player you need to be concerned with through the off week.
Raheem Mostert: We’re starting to see some of the cracks in the Mostert profile, and that is why I’d be looking to sell him before fellow RB De’Von Achane returns from IR (two more weeks, at minimum). In the meantime, Mostert is a perfectly viable RB2, thanks to a 20-plus-yard touch in each of his past six games.
Mostert has scored in all five Miami wins this season and has failed to score in the two losses. While I am interested in moving on from him if I can get value, this isn’t a simple “sell to the highest bidder” situation. He’s going to remain involved in this high-powered offense when Achane returns — don’t settle for anything less than top-15 RB value.
Jeff Wilson Jr.: In his season debut, Wilson played seven snaps and ran a route on all seven of them. His checkered health history with two superior backs ahead of him long-term makes him nothing more than roster depth in deeper formats. Wilson getting to a 10-touch role by the end of the season feels like an overly optimistic projection.
If you want to hold him until Achane returns, I’m fine with it, but Wilson’s nowhere near starting lineups right now.
Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill: After averaging an unfathomable 13.8 yards per target through six weeks, Hill produced just 5.9 yards per target in Philadelphia. Still, it didn’t matter – he finished as the fourth-highest-scoring receiver for the week.
A historic season remains on the radar for Hill, and with a TD in three straight games, it is clear that the NFL has no idea how to slow him down. I have zero reservations about him being my WR1 this week and for the remainder of the season.
Jaylen Waddle: Without a top-12 finish this season and four games (including last week against the Eagles) finishing as fantasy’s 30th receiver or worse, Waddle has been nothing short of disappointing up to this point. Does it continue?
In Weeks 1-3, he saw 12 catches on 16 targets, while Weeks 4-6 saw 18 catches on 25 targets. His raw involvement is ticking up slowly, and there is plenty of room for further growth. I’m in on acquiring him at a discount right now and watching it pay dividends with time.
Did you know that his first catch gaining over 20 yards will be his first in October? How crazy is that? We’re talking about a receiver who averaged 18.1 yards per catch last season.
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Waddle’s role is clearly different than it was last season. But his skill profile comes with a single-play upside that I think we see more of moving forward than we have up to this point.
Waddle should be locked into fantasy lineups in all formats — now go trade for him while the window is open.
Tight Ends
Hunter Henry: For the third consecutive game, Henry failed to see more than three targets as the Patriots knocked off the Bills. The game-winning touchdown went to fellow TE Mike Gesicki, so even if you were holding out hope for Henry based on his hierarchy in this passing game, you can move on.
There’s no reason to be confident in a single Patriot on a weekly basis.
Should You Start Rhamondre Stevenson or Dameon Pierce?
In a perfect world, you’re playing just about any other back with a reasonable role. If you’re not that fortunate, I prefer the pass-catching profile of Stevenson over a back in Dameon Pierce who is giving work away in the passing game to Devin Singletary.
In a week with no teams on a bye, neither of these underwhelming RBs is a top-25 option at the position for me.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!