The New England Patriots‘ outlook digs into the fantasy football value of Ezekiel Elliott, while the Denver Broncos‘ preview takes a look at Russell Wilson’s streamer appeal in the fantasy semifinals.
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
- Spread: Broncos -6.5
- Total: 34
- Patriots implied points: 13.8
- Broncos implied points: 20.3
Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson: As bad as things have been in New England this season (3-11), their defense hasn’t been the problem.
- Fifth-fewest yards per play
- Sixth-best red-zone defense
- Eighth-fewest missed tackles
Wilson has failed to throw multiple touchdown passes in half of his games this season (including four of his past five), and he’s been held to six or fewer rushing yards in three of his past five.
The fact that Wilson has a rushing score in three of his past four games has kept his fantasy point totals high enough to be considered a streaming option, but that’s not something I label as very sustainable.
Wilson is easily outside of my top 12 at the position and is not a player I am comfortable streaming this week.
Running Backs
Rhamondre Stevenson: The high ankle sprain has sidelined New England’s starting back in consecutive games, and I’m continuing to operate as if he is going to be inactive. If that changes, this piece will be updated with Stevenson leading a committee that lands both on the Flex radar. However, neither would be inside the top 20 due to a lack of role clarity.
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Stevenson will be an interesting player to dive into this offseason to see if he can rediscover his 2022 form. But for now, I’m not counting on him helping managers down the stretch.
Ezekiel Elliott: In the two weeks since Stevenson’s injury, Elliott has managed to run for just 93 yards on 33 carries. Not a single one of those totes has gained more than 12 yards.
The lack of efficiency on the ground isn’t exactly new for Zeke and is something that figures to continue given his lack of explosion at this point in his career (his last 15-yard run came in October, per the Week 16 Cheat Sheet). That said, Elliott has caught 12 passes for 93 yards and a score in those two games.
He essentially has filled the exact fantasy-friendly role of Stevenson. Elliott has finished as RB1 and RB33 in his two weeks as New England’s lead back. Splitting the difference makes plenty of sense in this plus matchup where the Pats should be committed to the ground game for all four quarters.
Javonte Williams: Williams’ talent is going to shine eventually. I remain a long-term investor, but with just one finish better than RB24 since lighting up the Bills in Week 10, he clearly doesn’t have a ceiling that wins matchups.
That said, with multiple catches in 12 of 13 games this season and no real risk of game script limitations, Williams is an RB2 for me in this difficult matchup against the top per-carry run defense in the league.
If you’re like me and believe the Broncos win this game, you’re playing Williams. In Denver’s last five wins, he’s averaged 21.8 touches per game with three touchdowns.
Wide Receivers
Demario Douglas: I’m not putting a Patriots pass catcher into my playoff lineup if I can at all avoid it. That said, Douglas is a nice player to have on the end of your bench as a “break glass in case of emergency” option.
The slot target caught three of five targets for 33 yards last week in his return to action after missing a pair of games (concussion).
That production is unlikely to jump off the screen at you. However, he ran a route on 71.4% of New England’s dropbacks, an encouraging usage pattern that could land him on the very low-end PPR Flex conversation if you’re truly stuck.
The upside is low, and that’s not going to change. Douglas is the closest thing this team has to a chain-moving receiver, and that role can come with a reasonable floor. A reasonable floor that becomes appealing if you’re battling through injuries and low-floor deep-ball receivers.
Courtland Sutton: No touchdown last week? What in the world happened?
Even without a score, Sutton’s fantasy stock didn’t tank. He has 5+ catches or a touchdown in 12 of 14 games this season, and the two dud performances came at the hands of truly elite defenses (CLE and NYJ).
The Patriots’ defense is certainly their strength. But I don’t put them in the same tier as those two units, giving me confidence in assuming that Sutton is good for at least 10 fantasy points this week — a stable floor that lands him inside my top 25.
Sutton has finished nine of 14 games as a top-30 receiver, a level of consistency that has resulted in massive profits given the price you paid back in August. I have Sutton ranked ahead of bigger names like Calvin Ridley, Amari Cooper, and Terry McLaurin with confidence.
Jerry Jeudy: The 74 yards he gave your bench last week against the Lions was his highest yardage total since Week 3, but I’m not reading it as something to get excited about.
Jeudy has failed to catch more than three passes in four straight games and has turned his 77 targets into just a single score.
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He has one top-30 finish on his 2023 résumé, and even that wasn’t the most encouraging of performances — two catches (Week 6 vs. KC).
You likely stopped starting Jeudy a month ago, and I’m not adjusting that strategy in this below-average matchup.
Tight Ends
Hunter Henry: One week after scoring twice against the Steelers, Henry set season highs in both catches and targets against the Chiefs. It should go without saying that betting on this Patriots offense isn’t for the faint of heart, but with the Broncos owning a bottom-10 opponent aDOT, Henry could post another impressive target share this week.
The floor is low due to the lack of projectable yardage (this was his first 60-yard game in over a calendar year), but you could say that about most TE streamers. If you’re forced to speculate at the position, the matchup and form of Henry make for a reasonable gamble.
Should You Start Chris Godwin or Courtland Sutton?
Last week was encouraging from Godwin and discouraging from Sutton, but I’m not letting an isolated week impact my ranks in a significant way this time of year.
We have a three-month sample size of Sutton owning the edge in valuable usage, and I’m going to trust that over what happened last weekend. Godwin’s skill set isn’t a clean fit to what Baker Mayfield likes to do, and that puts him in a tough spot to repeat his success from a week ago.
Should You Start Cade Otton or Hunter Henry?
I have Otton ranked two spots higher, as I am basically prioritizing snap share over-relying on a touchdown. As good as Henry has been recently, there is no denying that betting on this Patriots pass game is dancing with the devil.
That’s not to say that relying on the Bucs’ aerial attack is “safe” — it’s not, but their offensive plan is to pass the ball, whereas the Patriots would rather melt the clock and limit the possessions. Neither is a player I’m looking to start this week, but if push comes to shove and you’re streaming the position, I lean Otton.
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